Riobard

At higher volumes, the larger the collective group at one point In time the progressively greater reduction in probability that at least one infected person is contained in it. But at higher levels of community disease prevalence the greater the probability there may be more than one person. More complex algorithms are required for, say, probability of at least two; it is not additive but is usually not much higher than for one. In many contexts, such as a flight, the original model should be sufficient. In a large venue space even with many people you are less likely to enter the viral aerobic space of a contagious participant, depending on mingling patterns.

Event exposure risk Republica Dominicana per N persons together or sequentially: 5 1.3% 10 2.6% 20 5.1% 30 7.5% 40 9.9% 50 12.2% 267 for coin-toss odds 50.0% 884 for high risk 90.0% As you can see, a prevalence that is about 25% that of Brazil’s will considerably impact on degree of risk associated with contact volume. —— Here is a screenshot below repeating the Brazilian data.

Correction: topic (not optic), though there’s the odd optic here and there.

I see what you did there Same basic chapter & verse. Similar page even, though behaviour crosses national boundaries. Perhaps the vast population difference explains why more Canucks are tossing Yanks out of Dawson City, etc, than vice versa Canucks run out of Dodge. Community response not much drawn out of my playbook of subtlety in terms of the vitriol about it up here. But yes, the road to death is paved with bad intentions and unfortunately in the new survival eugenics innocents are dragged along for the collateral damage ride.

Colombia is on par with Brazil. Dominican Republic prevalence has considerably abated. Imma do the various N-based risk algorithm figures for it later today.

You are in luck. Maybe. I had success visiting Brazil several times based on a bit of personal research 18 months prior to discovering this message board. By then it was nice to find sympatico and occasionally entertaining but not very value-added information-wise. If you prefer a lot of info gathered by others that you cannot access independently, there are hours of reading under this heading. EVERY possible optic and angle is covered. If you discover a genuine gap we should pony up and finance your first trick if and when safe. So put on your readers and get scrolling and scanning! I cannot rule out that you are a bot, though, the other bot not a bott. It is a little odd that you asked a question as if it had not been already substantially answered repeatedly here. LOL

Without prejudice: I think I would find Hospital Copa Star near Point as satisfactory as any in Montreal, depending on utilization factor given changing acute care demographics and resources in coronavirus context. There is also the geographical convenience of proximity between where you get the virus and where you get treated. The open air currents could literally transfer the same particles from 202 a block or two over as the viral material that you essentially walk over or get wheeled over with, the spiky hospital admission criterion lodged in your mucous membranes and circulatory systems.

So I have the state populations but it would be daunting to do all 5,000-plus cities/ municipalities per capita. For risk differential by region, Canada and USA have them by province /territory / state. You could can drill down by location and I just estimated exposure risk for people I know in Ubatuba (SP) and Barra (SalBahia). The smaller the land mass the more valid the risk estimate for an entire state, etc, or even nation, as shorter-distance inter-municipality mobility levels out the differences to a degree smong urban, suburban and rural zones.

Good find, that. However it is regional total and new tallies with clues as to trend in absolute numbers. It would be somewhat useful if you lived or visited one place and can see the relative changes across time. Not much change would occur over a short time. However the metric does not contain population volume denominators that are required for at-a-glance comparisons between regions in terms of per capita proportions of people infected. You could DIY based on knowledge of population numbers, an additional step that has not been imported into these data. Few places are doing the deeper calculations, even if person volume is known, or are estimating numbers based on presumed prevalence against documented prevalence. I do them manually on request, here where I live as well as for a number of friends throughout Brazil and elsewhere. There is no app coding that can achieve output for the algorithm because the theoretically anchored formula has a few infinitesimal variables. The risk algorithm narrows exposure (implicitly transmission) risk according to population-adjusted point prevalence of cases with a few other variables relevant to estimating prevalence accurately. The BRZ data do assist in tallying mortality probability over time. You can predict burial plots and death certificate inventory. Similarly, the new case incidence trends may help predict resource allocation needs within specific areas. Great for front-line management on the ground there. I will try to drill down and see if I missed something. There is a numbers explosion going on and I have been spending considerable time assessing what guts of the piñata are actually useful. The central missing piece is that you can easily calculate exposure risk on a 0-100 scale but there is absolutely no consensus on a specific number or range on that scale that is acceptable in the realm of tolerance / aversion. If one were arbitrarily selected, you could maintain constancy of that metric by simply adjusting N persons and this could salvage a lot of businesses, reducing capacity versus shuttering at the whim of the shit show that lives at the intersection of science and government. —— But what do I know, except fire Fauci ... I am not being ironic. He is fine clinically at the basic but not able to think at a creative gestalt level marrying science, statistics and human factors, even if not muzzled politically.

Novel coronavirus event exposure by N persons collectively or cumulatively based on point prevalence today in Brazil. 5 7.3% 10 14.0% 20 26.1% 30 36.5% 40 45.4% 50 53.0 % (approximately coin-toss odds) ———- 153 persons ... 90.0 % Incorporates national average ascertainment bias of 5.3 multiple in formula numerator; risk probabilities increase in regions with higher ratio of true prevalence to case report prevalence. Obviously Aruba is a shit show (courtesy of foreign national host imports) and Argentina riskier than Brazil.

Brazil 9th in world for risk

...

Agree 1,000% Oh the sanitation theatrics of it all.

There’s some history to this as Tam initially pooh-poohed the idea CoV would affect Canada and when it began to infiltrate here she asserted that masks among the general public were not warranted. Fuck your guy missionary not doggie style to reduce the limitations of the already failsafe-lacking mask. Apparently there may be a few more more droplets getting to you as they seep out the edges and move backwards because they may bounce off when they collide with the fabric from the inside. Obviously some particles get through and around as well at the front. Who knows, though, I may have dreamt reading this. Necrophilia is starting to look like a good option.

I think this merits a separate topic as it is about intersecting digitally, not at Arnold Classic type in person events. ’Rent is due’ seems on the nose in terms of the profile owner angling for compensation or assistance of some type. Bear in mind that some monetary gain is often built in to the profile if he has one or more brand partnerships. Nano influencers may get a pittance per click from a company for wearing their shit, even if not explicit. It may be buried in the hashtags. But the ersatz job and bank he possibly has on IG sets the stage for having some degree of impunity in his social bubble for subtly grafting the concept of getting paid employment, however vague, onto a social media component that the majority of folks possess just out of thirst for attention and validation. Apart from how douchey it might be with a known person or their connection in your circle, you might open with “you seem to be a great guy, times are tough but I understand that there are various forms of expense assistance, ranging from government programs to discreet 1:1 mutually advantageous agreements, one should not be reluctant to propose receiving help, and it is a sign of maturity and self-possession to directly and personally reach out for it.” [Boom!] As an afterthought I wonder if the rent rhetoric is a workaround solution to try to stop followers from stalkingly incessantly coming on to him in a non-trade context. In other words to telegraph that he is not available but that his MO is to pair a social site agenda with the potential for earnings.

I have it on good authority from one of the partners that inauguration is targeted for around the end of September, but no specific date. It will come up eventually on the venue’s ‘socials’.

I wonder if this finding supports a thought I posted a while back, related but different: swine animal models in virologic research show that they can be immune yet re-exposed to a virus and potentially shed it to others in a contagious manner. Deliberative research of this nature is prohibited for humans.

https://apple.news/AQ4dRzrq2RnuujpnlSPSmIw

São CAetaNo E racional do Sul.

Finally an official answer from the proprietor: this new venue will not open prior to successful nation-wide vaccination yielding negligible novel coronavirus transmission risk.

PS: On a positive note, if intent and uptake are equivalized even Russia has a good chance of sufficient herd immunity to dwindle CoV transmission. Some of this will depend on adults vaxx-blocking their dependents’ recipient status at these half-and-half population attitude ratios, and whether prior exposure counts as a degree of natural immunity comparable to that conferred by artificial immunity, essentially making up the difference to achieve broad community prevention.

* Theresa

A proper facial mask will leave your skin glowing and your pores open and receptive. Saving on mouthwash expenditures will enable a higher spa grade of mask. Backing your arse up to the glory hole, you can leave it on, and your curlers and hairnet need not be removed either. At some point peel the mask off to feel refreshed and cleansed. Or do so prior to the cumshot on your face if you like the pearl necklace application sensation and additional salutary benefits of semen rubbed into your cheeks ... upper cheeks in this case. And this is why Teresa is our top.

Here’s a recent selective poll of interest and reassuring for visitors worried about lack of vaccination uptake reducing the mitigation of transmission risk when in Brazil at some point in the future. I am a bit surprised at the differential between Brazil and USA, as well as many in Germany and France being hesitant. The politicization and ROP pressure to expedite a candidate rollout in USA prematurely seems to partly explain the views there and adds to mistrust potential among the generally saner, but Germany? I thought leadership problems, distrust, polarization, etc, and access to valid information might yield similar poll results for Americans and Brazilians. Perhaps less affluenza in general is predictive of the true experiential impact of the pandemic crisis in Brazil and overrides vaxx skepticism?

He actually resides within that general zone where he recently built or renovated what appears to be a tiny house for himself, and I think did much of the work for Mikonos. Hope it pays off and it opens.