Riobard

Happy for you that you could spread some wings & legs and fly. My very recent Roche antibody test for CoV was negative. Is “16” now the legal age? Kidding.

Current pop-adjusted mortality projections for USA and Brazil [below]. Brazil a higher total by November with larger area under the curve of daily deaths. There is mounting evidence that the Y-axis denominator should be 1 million, not 100,000 as in the graphs. By November, Canada is projected to have higher per capita daily deaths than either USA or Brazil. I hope we know by then a lot more about true natural immunity duration and longer-term infection clinical effects. If current USA incidence is closer to 40 million, it essentially had doubled from 20 over the past 6 weeks. It had also doubled from 10 to 20 over the 6 weeks prior to that period. If the doubling rate persists, herd immunity threshold (circa 60%) could be achieved by winter, of course no iron-clad guarantee of anything because of what remains unknown. Anything seems weirdly possible. Reaching community immunity prior to a viable vaccine roll-out. A tobacco-based vaccine candidate rising to the top; there are 2 in development in North America. Trump winning by a landslide.

Actually, a smarter Trump with a more skilled consult team could have backed up his claim and done it in a fairly incontrovertible manner. No region has better attempted to estimate a truer mortality rate than New York, and that could be reasonably extrapolated broadly in the USA since rising prevalence elsewhere justifies New York as a comparator. Other jurisdictions are trying to do this but are lagging behind large-scale representative antibody assessment as a surrogate marker of disease prevalence. Researchers in New York vastly inflated mortality by adding both probable CoV deaths and a proportion of excess deaths (year-to-year period referencing) reasonably attributable to CoV. That makes USA potentially look worse than currently. However, researchers during May peak also antibody-tested 15,000 people, finding a 12% state prevalence and 20% NYC prevalence. That drastically alters (reduces) mortality to a little more than 1% because the denominator reflects a much larger absolute number of presumed recoveries (deaths of course factored into both numerator and denominator). This ascertainment bias adjustment could put all global regions in a better light but I think the assertion that USA has a relatively low (lowest-ish) death rate could have been one pulled over on Wallace. I doubt he grasps the more advanced mortality algorithm any better than his interview opponent. Trump lost his prime-time shot to convincingly reduce the mortality rate to at least 25% of the current figures, as reflected in the graphs, thus dropping USA death rate to the bottom of the global pack; to boast about the sophisticated way in which he assesses mortality (without under-counting deaths absent an official diagnosis!); and to offset to some degree, particularly with his naïve base, the alarm created by rising case incidence by significantly and accurately adjusting the ratio of CoV mortality to overall crude mortality. In reality, the USA reported mortality rate is about the same as globally, with many countries reporting better or worse than the global average. There is lacking a standardized method for calculating this metric.

[I could only write outside the quote box in ‘edit’ format for some weird reason, and now cannot seem to rectify it]

Just catching a bit of the CW (Fox News) and DJT interview as clips are folded into Trevor Noah’s Daily Show. Not that Trump gets anything right, not defending him, but I note that Fox criticizes him for choosing a mortality chart that omits Russia (better) but includes Italy (worse) and Spain (worse). However, Fox pulls out their own chart to make a point. It entirely omits continental Europe and, therefore, bumps USA up in the rankings! By excluding Spain, Italy, and other European nations with high mortality rates they are doing the exact same ‘cherry-picking’ manipulative move they accuse the White House of. A smarter Trump staff would have included more European nations faring worse on lethality. That may have made Trump’s assertion a bit less embarrassing. Yet a more more honest and objective Fox production team would have included ANY European nations as mortality comparators. In fact, those are likely more accurate and reflective of the norms of fatality to date because mortality further in the trajectory of incidence has caught up to morbidity and yielded an overall recovery:death ratio. I mean, I’m not upset that they appear to score one in his net but I despise shady journalism.

“Why yes, you may try on the slippers for a spell, Guv’nuh, but 1st the ice bucket challenge.”

Evidently somebody is right on, and imposed right on, Covid according to that somebody’s graphic ‘beautiful mind’ ...

Apart from basic information ignorance and character flaws, this crisis draws authentic mental illness out of the wordwork. If you are out and about circulating among 157 people, at the best of times the odds are 50% that at least one will have an underlying psychotic illness. We are going to see these tussles and standoffs culminating in violence towards others, as well as injury/death indirectly brought on self for escalation leading to law enforcement intervention.

“within 16m of” should be “in addition to”, lest people think the spacing is 50 feet. LOL

Are my American neighbours aware of this brilliant Georgia Tech app? It uses the same algorithm automatically that I have been utilizing manually. You can plug in the various arbitrary incremental group sizes anywhere and it provides a percentage probability of at least one infected person. As you can see, a few Florida figures are equal to the ones I calculated manually but plunked into a similar-themed Latin American thread commenced today. The app figures are also consistent with my manual calculations for Puerto Rico as a whole, though the app only provides by county. The app would collapse if it attempted to offer every group size you can enter in the algorithm. Rather, the designers chose to incorporate all counties and update each day. https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

My location, Quebec province, for reference: 288

One of my favourite Caribbean destinations, Guadeloupe: 1732 persons is the number calculated to present a 50% chance one of them is a transmission risk. J’adore.

Florida: 9 Not Latin America though Latin influences. I go occasionally and took in some nice weather there 6 months ago. IMG_6809.MOV

Puerto Rico: 49

Colombia: 40

Brazil today: the quantity of people is 27 using the same formula.

Checking out my favourite destinations for current SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk potential. Have selected the arbitrary threshold of 50%, essentially a coin-toss, though one can use any probability percentage in the algorithm. Today’s quantity of people threshold for a 50% probability of one infectious person within that quantity is 42 in Dominican Republic. If coronavirus were superimposed on past visits to Paco’s/Grand’s Cafeteria y Bar, a fair heads/tails chance one innocent but risky person would have been there circulating. I believe the place is open with modifications. Cheers and bon appétit.

... for 2020, I would say in 4-6 weeks, maybe edging out diabetes. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2944635/?fbclid=IwAR340TlZ3HfPeo6RPTM82xQYXsmAeb1BEnFbEaFpifsBz_D0oMEBmP9KPAY

Yet there may be some scope for a redo, integrating the original and sequel.

E just existing on a bleak November day between conservatory seminars, never having relinquished his beret penchant, and having the requisite nosebleed icepack on hand ... O trying to put on a happy front lecturing in Classics ... while both in miserable yearning for reconnection.

Eeesh ... that would have meant the 2nd cumming of Elijah. No eternal peace when the likes of Rubio importunes it.

Six degrees of separation is an idea inclined to have a connection angle.

**Spoiler** Some time later, not very far away, the best hole was not yet taken by storm. Yet it was nice and would eventually happen, full circle.

Haha ... this being a free site the joke meant a bargain to me.

We can’t know for sure. It may be that Benalla was too vanilla.