Riobard

Almost cringeworthy. Think I prefer the good old-fashioned executioner’s hood on a guy.

I am curious about the clothing playbook. Is it due to the providers’ locker space being so small, essentially the worst kind of pinch-point? That said, what was the relation between customers and their change-room?, as it is also crowded if 5 or 6 in there simultaneously. I have been there several times so I can visualize the venue. Were clients in streetclothes? Or is it perhaps a hassle for the club, the additional step of disinfecting lockers following use? Can you use a locker for your knapsack, shoes, etc? Those clever Belgians. A bit creepy-looking a solution for Brazilian trade masks but ... unless you can get photos from the guys thru your device on the spot. [Oops, it won’t paste here. They are photos of your face that get printed on the lower part of the cloth mask that obscures it.]

What comes down must go up. CoV has its own law of physics. The curve must drop to 7/100K daily (14 on the graph because these estimates double the reported rates). It looks like with successful mitigation that could happen in about 7 weeks yet swing up again past the disqualification threshold soon after, even if the population is compliant with masks. Of course, predictions are just that. However, USA got so out of control that a normal abatement may not dip low enough to keep a subsequent uptick to the level that Germany current dictates. Most places are bracing for some degree of Fall resurgence.

In another month the exposure risk will be considerably greater than the calculations I just posted. Brazil’s logarithmic graph of new incidence is the steepest in the world. There is even a high probability of at least one infected person in sequestered business class departing from Brazil, assuming the passenger collective is representative of local CoV prevalence. I doubt that this information is being disseminated to airline crew, particularly if they layover rather than turnaround. They otherwise apply onboard universal precautions but may not be aware of the enormous risk out and about in the community. [Image below not log-depicted but shows the speed of increments of 1 million]

My father was open-minded and unconditionally loving but I still think I would have shocked him to death honouring his special day wearing sexy briefs and a gay pageant sash. Not that I could nearly have pulled that off (no analogy intended). Filter is everything ... just sayin’. LOL

Exposure risk per CoV-negative individual is increasing based on incidence rolling averages. It is 50% chance of contagion and viral acquisition for contact with 43 locals, 25% chance for contact with 17 locals, and 10% for contact with 6 locals. Obviously alters with regional prevalence. If you are in Brazil for 2 weeks, there is a very high probability of being infected if you are randomly in the personal contagion radius of just a handful of locals per day whose current infection status is unknown. But I am sure your airlines are advising you of these realities prior to clicking ‘confirm purchase’. It is highly recommended to quarantine after returning home, even if not legally obligatory.

I assume Brazil Health Theatre is a tongue-in-cheek term and we will be reading some specific bat-crap cray-cray anecdotal reports from you on the ground that have yet to go viral.

The gaiter mask probably has enough material to pull up over the eyes.

It’s not the 7-day average ... it is the 7-day tally, 114per100K for USA, well above the 50per100K threshold. It is, however, more lenient than the initial EU cut-off for red zones, 8per100K.

Karma, SC, just karma ..

How very sweet. Infelizmente it is not currently in the cards to play the role of Daddy.

Air Canada resumes Toronto - São Paulo in a few weeks. Only Canadians can fly back but have an equal chance with the general population to contract CoV while visiting, maybe even greater if proportionately less community precautions compared to the average local. The probability of at least one contagious passenger when leaving Canada is 16.4%; when returning is 99.3% ... it is a very large aircraft, 268 + 30. I corrected the Canadian prevalence by a factor of X4.0 and the Brazilian prevalence by a factor of X5.33, according to research on true estimates. The respective passenger risk estimates for USA and Brazil are obviously more similar to each other although USA is trending down in new incidence while Brazil continues to trend up, so one can expect Brazil:USA probability ratio to increase. All of this of course assumes passengers are representative of national case prevalence. At this point the 2-week quarantine for returning Canadians remains obligatory. I do not know if Americans can transit through Pearson International remaining airside. I think it is possible. You would have to check with Canada Border Services. You can drive to Alaska as long as you not dawdle. I am not aware if Air Canada is ‘red-listing’ by passport; I doubt it. Anyway, this is just a word to the wise; I am not looking into it. Canada’s tourism GDP is 6%. The travel and tourist sectors are having a hell of a time getting the government to budge and try reciprocity even with countries whose infection management measures are showing better effectiveness.

Sally was correct, Charlie Brown. Already staff and student cases.

At least two island nations that opened a few weeks ago may have experienced a failed experiment.

If HIV testing were as notoriously inaccurate as SARS-CoV-2 testing and its indicator results influenced behaviour to the same questionable degree as testing does in the pandemic it would likely be completely abandoned for screening/prevention purposes and utilized exclusively for diagnosis and disease intervention.

It is difficult to evaluate whether VL predicts hospitalization, a good marker for illness severity, because it is not yet as a rule measured for treatment decision purposes and is virtually never measured for the non-hospitalized. It is quantified logarithmically like HIV. Symptoms dictate care plans at point of diagnosis. A study reported this week in The Lancet suggests that VL may to some degree be an independent predictor of mortality among hospitalized patients, about a 10-fold increase (1 base10 log) without holding other variables constant, and about a 7% increased probability per 1 log VL increase when controlling for age and comorbidity. What was striking was the range of quantified VL, in the hundreds (per ml) to in the billions (in absolute terms, not log-converted), and the enormous mortality rate overall that did not discriminate much in terms of viral burden. Overall, this suggests to me that among the most ill of those CoV-infected, viral load is of little consequence. Anybody less ill than reaching the threshold necessitating hospitalization is likely to recover irrespective of position on the lesser disease severity gradient that exists outside of being admitted. Logically, then, outside of knowledge concerning the viral load range for the non-hospitalized, I am not convinced of its relevance. VL and contagion is another matter, a different slide.

There is a new report of a health care worker in Brazil with presumed reinfection, similar to the Boston case of an elderly male. However, the reinfection debate is not gaining much momentum favouring the bad news side. The reports are extremely rare among many millions of cases globally and, thus far, the virus samples cannot be grown in vitro. That refutes the idea of viable new infection but supports the notion of prolonged single infection, which of course presents a different but sobering spectre of disease possibility in cases where symptoms persist. This is all not to say that natural immunity following infection will not have an inevitable endpoint.

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I’m not sure you grasp the concept. The guys by your own classification are more in the herd than anyone and spur the requirements for eventual herd immunity, which is a large enough population percentage of exposure to reduce transmission due to dwindling numbers of susceptible hosts. They are also more likely to get infection ‘done and dusted’ in the earlier stages of the pandemic and may even be safer candidates for play than the average joe long before herd immunity is achieved. The playbook at this point, for those determined to chance a visit, is to interact with a minimal quantity of trade in 1:1 bubbles max 1 bubblebutt at a go. The odds of you intersecting with 1 guy’s contagion over the course of 8 months of pandemic is about 6%, assuming he acquires infection within that time frame. Personally I would avoid even that risk in a foreign country, erm, like the plague. But playing house with the same person with a relative degree of confinement and autonomous meal prep, etc, along with standard protection measures out and about will be a lot more secure For each new guy in sequence add 6%. It is high volume slutting that may get you in hot water when you will be more in need of cold compresses, or worse. These calculations are also not using the same algorithm as for probability of 1 infection among a series of guys you interact with. That algorithm would need to be adjusted for CoV prevalence inflated among a higher risk subgroup such as trade , which brings us full circle back to one of the main points.

Sorry it is now paywalled, but still seems accessible in Google search when I tried a minute later. Perhaps do not try to open the link here in case it subsequently blocks you from Google access. Coronavirus vaccine tracker New York Times

This Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker is updated all the time. Other options for Phase III are progressively expanding. I believe they are ordered according to development stage. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Isn’t that Boys Date?

Wasn’t that Boys’ Taint?

I hate to be the meanie needling anti-immunization proponents, and I did not know this, but apparently it is within the realm of possibility to create a transmissible vaccine through genetic engineering. In other words, the components of a vaccine can theoretically be passed from a vaccinated person to a non-vaccinated person in the same way as a true pathogen being contagious, who then stands to receive the same immunization status as the vaccinated person, though the transmissibility potential is likely lower than natural viral transmission. If there is a correlation between beliefs anchored in pseudoscience and acceptance of protective measures, better wear them masks if you don’t want your rights trampled on.

This is coming Fri Aug 7th and is apparently very good.