Riobard

A group of Brazilian epidemiologists has attempted to model an extrapolated best case scenario (lowest peak number of infections and avoidance of a rapid subsequent secondary wave, based on compliance with a few examples of duration of strict distancing). They came up with a mid-July tapering of distance measures, accompanied by a mid-June curve peak. Anyone’s guess, a lot of this approaches crystal-ball predicting, but 3 more months!? given the current climate of sentiment. The absolute numbers projected are complex because the model includes susceptibility, that greatly amplifies the figures to millions but are not out of line with projected incidence rates for diseases such as seasonal influenza in a hypothetical case of non-existent vaccination.

The Emirates screening is a rapid blood test for antibodies. It is a start but not comprehensive as antibodies may not be detected in early stage of exposure. Similarly, asymptomatic cases (not amenable to symptom screening) yet yielding antibodies as early sign of fighting infection, while contagious and poor candidates for sharing your row, cannot be easily differentiated from recoverers that would typically demonstrate antibodies and would be the most excellent candidates for passenger status as well as ‘Mile-High-Club’ trick partners. The details of pass/fail status are unclear. I would want that latter example of person beside me in order to try to make away with some of their blood for possibly needed convalescent plasma (I jest ... cannot imagine the mechanics of that). So I would be more impressed with Emirates shoving this practice down my throat if, in the press release, they had referred to these limitations because it is a challenge to do the full shebang of fast-turn-around immunoassay nasal swabs shoved up my nasal orifice or polymerase chain reaction for viral antigen detection. Oof! A necessary first step with expected evolution though.

I’d Taip either Seoulfully ... those curves not so flattened.

The morbidity level on the spreadsheet is almost as low as the US and lower than SP/IT. If underreporting is proportional to (asyx) morbidity then there may may be something valuable conferred by BMX vax ... I say this very tentatively because Brazil baseline is almost 2 weeks lag.

Naturally, word play aside, I mean Poax Lenehan who is in most Pases video clips ... a dated photo

Korean men are gorgeous and know what they are doing.

It is now apparent that we are looking at an 18-24 month hiatus in Montreal’s strip clubs if widespread vaccination does not shorten the duration of mitigation measures. Canada has a similar absolute case prevalence, but currently a considerably higher per capita rate compared to Brazil. I fear that Brazil will eventually outpace it, and Easter and it’s basket-case Mad Hatter leader will resurrect greater proliferation. If not, I’ll happily eat my Imperial margarine bonnet.

Brazil is reporting 3% serious/critical. If reporting could be globally standardized, one could by now somewhat assess the differential benefit of extant TB vaccination uptake.

The Health Ministry is treating the incidence/prevalence like it’s a 3-legged race against Europe, with 90% Invisible Men clones in green & yellow, downplaying the logarithmic curve to date (relatively early from baseline) as being slightly (meaninglessly) below Italy and Spain, as well as overlooking, as SolaceSoul highlights, under-reporting. The rate is on track with USA or worse. Time to get real.

I like my whiskey neat, my whomosexuals flamboyant, my whores muscle top liberal, and my WHOscientists on point with consensus not compromise.

Quarantine home fitness routine Day 17:

Power, Flip, Bottom, and of course the ubiquitous Brazilian porn actor Pokes Lendahand. c. 2012

Correction: .... spared hundreds of thousands [prospective] deaths ...

Pots and pans may slice his glands, his words will ever hurt him.

I hope I am wrong but Mr S-P will likely hemorrhage real estate equity and venue revenues and not meet his bills (I think he leases!), client base will have lost income and investments and be too cash-poor to pay for frills beyond basic living expenses if and when the dust settles (remember strip clubs 2009). The up to 10% input of tourism will be a fraction of its former self if at all. At best, I envision 130 PT as an emergency field hospital without a vertical lift spanning some of its levels (3 stops across two vertical spans). I think Thermas505 (Fragata) and Mikonos in São Caetano are done before liftoff. Club Rainbow is embedded in a large inexpensive hotel and may hold more survival promise. I would put my ‘stock position’ there.

Ash Wednesday this century so far could be up to 2 weeks later than this year, Feb 26, and still prior but close to dates of reality checks in Brazil based on global prevalence. This earlier party window may have spared hundreds of deaths that coulda been.

As far as I know, Broken Arrow will not veto it, as it is politically expedient to appear to support citizens over the short term leading up to Fall elections, should they proceed.

You seem to be more ‘on the ground’ on this than anyone else here. Yes it appears Senate passed the measure in a remote vote very very recently. Perhaps this source (attached) is useful here. Note: my Boytoy account is glitchy and I cannot consistently log in.

A pipe dream superimposed on my dreams of laying pipe ...

Hx reality test: Spanish flu epidemic, 1st wave Spring 1918, 2nd wave November 1918 the greatest mortality rate, 3rd wave late winter 1919. Hx reality test: Great Depression Hx reality test: AIDS Hx reality test: SARS, MERS One must hope for a vaccine, prior to Carnival 2021, prior to any future, over +/- Sampa Pride ... pray for inoculation over herd immunity.

BTW this may be the manner in which Prez Vacuumbag-Pocketfart is subtly dialling back his denial rhetoric. Honest to Gawd, one should write a CMBYN parody of him and his political doppelgänger Drumpf. Açai for Orange Julius ... the peach would fade into mug background, presenting a cinematographic challenge (as if there were not others).

Monthly benefit 60% of min wage approved for “informal workers”. This may be of interest to sauna staff. GdePs? ... not sure. Gogos? ... perhaps more of an edge than trade. The individual amount is 600 reais. Delivery of package timeline uncertain. Whether this is based on income tax footprints or is more of a social welfare benefit is unclear. In Canada, such aid is predicated on previous declared income, including a sliding scale of benefit (up to a max ceiling) amount linked to pay amount. In other words, tax return of 2018 or 2019, and/or formal recent statements from employer or one’s own formal tracking of income prior to Spring tax return ( now deferred). In Brazil, employment is loosely stratified as wage/salary worker, formal entrepreneurship, and informal entrepreneurship. Where the aid package term “informal” fits here is uncertain. It may be a bit lost in translation. I hope that venue staff and drag MCs are the most eligible. They have never been able to earn vast amounts under the radar and have typically lived month to month, in contrast to ‘it’s like there is no tomorrow’.

I am glad we crossed paths a little here, somewhat in the same boat with a fellow BT gringo kinda helped take the edge off a bit of worry and a heck of a lot of inconvenience and expense.

I think a bannner ad was up for today, now removed