Possible Thai Military Coup on the way

[khaolakguy]

Thai PM seems to have shot herself in the foot by deferring to Cambodians over recent border issues in a leaked call. 

She is due to have a meeting with the criticised Thai General, which might be awkward. 

History suggests that Shinawatra disputes with the army do not end well for the Shinawatras.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/20/thai-prime-minister-paetongtarn-shinawatra-apologises-phone-leak-crisis-cambodia-hun-sen

[khaolakguy]

Cambodia halts fuel and gas imports from Thailand as crisis simmers. 

This simmering crisis doesn't seem to be being reported as much in the Thai Media. Although our intrepid reporters advise that it is nevertheless impacting on the available Cambodian guys in both Bangkok and Pattaya.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/22/cambodia-halts-fuel-and-gas-imports-from-thailand-as-crisis-simmers

[PeterRS]

There is certainly tension within the government over the Prime Minister's total stupidity in assuming her phone call to Hun Sen from a mobile phone would be completely private. Has she not learned from a host of world leaders over the years whose supposedly private talks often have a habit of being overheard and then leaked to the media? It is perhaps just one mark of her total lack of experience to be Prime Minister. After all, she was only put into the position due to her father's party being the largest one in the coalition of several parties that make up Thailand's present government. And after the powers-that-be had wangled a way to get rid of the duly elected Prime Minister Pita Limjaroenrat and banned his Move Forward party.

The PM is now saying that all her coalition partners stand behind her. All but one, that is, for last week one of her major partners, the Bhumjaithai Party, pulled out of the government. That party held 69 seats. Other parties are hanging on for now, but may pull out any day soon. That will give the PM little option other than to resign, face a vote of no confidence or a call for the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

And that is not her only concern. Following a petition he received at the end of last week, the Senate Speaker Mongkol Surasajja has asked the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate her over the Hun Sen episode. He has also asked the Constitutional Court to terminate her premiership in accordance with four articles in the Constitution. Members of the Senate Military Affairs Commission accused the PM in their petition of being "dishonest" and "committing acts of gross ethical misconduct."

Could this lead to a coup? In Thailand's murky politics absolutely nothing can be ruled out, but I think it is unlikely in the first instance. 

https://world.thaipbs.or.th/detail/senate-to-seek-paetongtarns-removal-as-prime-minister/57930

[PeterRS]

Hun Sen is now turning his ire on the Shinawatra clan. He has accused the PM's father of feigning the illness that kept him out of prison, something most Thais had probably assumed.

"Hun Sen claimed that Thaksin was not genuinely ill, accusing him of pretending to suffer from symptoms such as chills, shivering and other exaggerated signs — like being chills in a tractor, chills in a car, chills while eating and chills while performing — all staged to avoid court proceedings in multiple legal cases.

"Hun Sen recounted that when he visited Thaksin on Feb 21, 2024, Thaksin showed no signs of illness. However, when taking photos together, Thaksin wore medical equipment typically used by patients, allegedly to deceive the public and Thai officials."

Of the preent situation,

"He claimed he had 'lost patience' with the Thai prime minister due to repeated insults, describing her comments to the Second Army Region commander as rebellious. He also expressed readiness for Cambodia to take military action if necessary. "

More at -

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/3059273/hun-sen-says-thailand-owes-him-gratitude-threatens-to-expose-shinawatras

[Keithambrose]

My Thai friends  say that General Prayut is hovering in background,  thinking of making a return!

[PeterRS]

It's been known for years that one who has coveted the role of PM for some years is the former Deputy PM and one-time Minister of Health, Anutin Charnvirakul - never a fan of western foreigners living in Thailand. Even though he led his Bhumjaithai Party out of the government last week over the Cambodia situation, the likelihood is that he will be hatching some plot in the background.

[Keithambrose]

21 hours ago, PeterRS said:

It's been known for years that one who has coveted the role of PM for some years is the former Deputy PM and one-time Minister of Health, Anutin Charnvirakul - never a fan of western foreigners living in Thailand. Even though he led his Bhumjaithai Party out of the government last week over the Cambodia situation, the likelihood is that he will be hatching some plot in the background.

Whose family are big in cannabis farms, I believe, what a surprise....

[PeterRS]

The public protests have started. Yesterday evening a crowd estimated at 10,000 or more congregated at Victory Monument to hear a number of speeches, the main topic being that the Prime Minister must go. As reported in today's Bangkok Post, while veteran protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul said -

"he doesn’t want to see the situation deteriorate to the point where another coup happens, 'I won’t object if the military does something.'" 

Worse was to come for the Shinawatra clan. Once the darling of masses of Thais, Thaksin Shinawatra has become part of the dialogue and it will not be what he wants to hear.

"Saturday’s rally concluded with a pledge by Jatuporn Prompan, a former red shirt leader who is now an outspoken critic of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, that there would be more to come if Thaksin’s daughter clings to power."

Dr Warong Dechgitvigrom, the royalist leader of the Thai Pakdee Party, mentioned past political movements that led to the removal of Thaksin, Somchai Wongsawat (Thaksin’s brother-in-law) and Yingluck Shinawatra. He warned that Ms Paetongtarn was on a similar path. 

“She should be alarmed seeing the crowds here today. If she doesn’t change course, she has no choice but to step down,” he said.

“We are facing a prime minister with the DNA of a traitor, while our soldiers protect national sovereignty.”

Protestors also turned their anger on any party which supports the Prime Minister.

"In earlier speeches amid intermittent heavy rain at Victory Monument, other protest leaders said that not only Ms Paetongtarn, but any parties that support the coalition government, must go."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/3059860/protest-leader-we-dont-want-a-coup-but-…

[vinapu]

Thai politics is true swamp. It looks Shinawatras are reaping poisoned fruits of kowtowing to royalist cabal in order to be put in power and betrayed their base.

Pita awaits for a job he was elected to.

[PeterRS]

It's a typical case of how the mighty are fallen with changing times. Thaksin senior came to power when the country was almost at its lowest ebb following the disastrous economic mess left by the government at the start of the Asian Economic Crisis in July 1997. Although he was a crook and should never have become Prime Minister - having parked over US$50 million shares in his company with his gardener, drivers and housekeepers who knew nothing about it, and then bribed the Constitutional Court - he was hugely popular in his fan base in the north and east. And being frank he did get the country moving forward economically again. Some of his policies were very beneficial, including the cheap health scheme for all Thais. 

But power, probably never far from his mind, took over. I suspect he never forgot what he must have perceived as a huge embarrassment when dethroned by a coup when out of the country. Then the media discovered about the lunchboxes filled with cash handed over to lawyers as his wife attempted to escape from her court charges. Fleeing first to Beijing and then Dubai, no doubt he assumed, as most in power do, that he could still retain his grip, the more so after two relatives took over the post of PM. But each was dethroned. In the meantime, the Hun Sen issue which has largely sparked the present crisis, started when Thaksin became a special advisor in exile to Cambodia in 2009. Hun Sen refused all attempts to deport him back to Thailand where he and his wife were facing court cases. 

His younger sister Yingluck came to power on the basis of utterly ridiculous policies - first car rebates for up to 600,000 new cars yet no new roads, a tablet for every child (a huge number arrived from China defective and most kids just used them to play computer games!) etc. Worst of all was a rice pledging scheme promising farmers a minimum price for their rice, a price that was way above the world average. This resulted in a huge scandal. Massive mismanagement and corruption led to this costing the government a total of around US$19 billion with Thai warehouses stuffed with rotting rice which could not be sold. Thailand lost its position as the leading rice exporter with Vietnam and India quickly taking over this position. After  being tried and found guilty by the Constitutional Court, like her parents Yingluck also fled the country to avoid imprisonment. Before then, though, yet another military coup had taken the reigns of power.

Now the Shinawatra influence in Thailand seems finally to be at an end. But this is Thailand. No one really knows what the future will bring.

[khaolakguy]

 

Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has come under mounting pressure to resign over her leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.

The clip, in which Paetongtarn called him "uncle" and criticised a Thai military commander, sparked public anger and a petition for her dismissal, which the court is now considering.

That would make Paetongtarn the third politician in the powerful Shinawatra clan - which has dominated Thai politics for the past two decades - to lose power before completing their term. 

Her ruling coalition is already teetering with a slim majority after a key conservative ally abandoned it two weeks ago.

The Constitutional Court voted 7-2 to suspend her while they consider the case for her dismissal and she has 15 days to present her defence.

In the meantime deputy PM Suriya Jungrungruangkit will serve as the country's acting leader.

If she is eventually dismissed, Paetongtarn will be the second prime minister from the Pheu Thai party to be removed from premiership since August last year.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vrrj72xy7o

[PeterRS]

26 minutes ago, khaolakguy said:

If she is eventually dismissed, Paetongtarn will be the second prime minister from the Pheu Thai party to be removed from premiership since August last year.

The Pheu Thai party is the third incarnation of the Thai Rak Thai party which her father founded. If the PM is ousted it can hardly be expected to continue. Sic transit . . . 

[daydreamer]

Three members of the Shinawatra family have served as Prime Minister, but if in-laws of Thaksin are included, that would make four members of Thaksin's family.  Somchai Wongsawat served as Prime Minister in 2008, and is Thaksin Shinawatra’s brother-in-law, being married to Thaksin's sister Yaowapha.  From Today's Bangkok Post:

 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/3061352/thaksin-attends-criminal-court-for-lese-majeste-hearing

[PeterRS]

Thanks for that. I had forgotten about the brother-in-law, perhaps because according to the Constitutional Court he only served as the duly elected PM for 18 days in 2008! That same Court then found him guilty of violating the Constitution and banned him from taking part in politics for five years. His wife, Thaksin's sister Yaowapha, was also an MP and she was also given a 5-year ban. Strange now to think that neither ban had any effect at the time on Thaksin senior's popularity.

[vinapu]

23 hours ago, PeterRS said:

...deport him back to Thailand where he and his wife were facing court cases. 

......... After  being tried and found guilty by the Constitutional Court, like her parents Yingluck also fled the country to avoid imprisonment.

lets not pretend even for one second that Thai courts are even iota independent

[vinapu]

10 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

Thanks for that. I had forgotten about the brother-in-law, perhaps because according to the Constitutional Court he only served as the duly elected PM for 18 days in 2008! That same Court then found him guilty of violating the Constitution and banned him from taking part in politics for five years. His wife, Thaksin's sister Yaowapha, was also an MP and she was also given a 5-year ban. Strange now to think that neither ban had any effect at the time on Thaksin senior's popularity.

nothing strange as I venture to say Thai public doesn't believe for impartiality of Constitutional Court which after all removed duly elected Pita from politics as well

[PeterRS]

9 minutes ago, vinapu said:

nothing strange as I venture to say Thai public doesn't believe for impartiality of Constitutional Court which after all removed duly elected Pita from politics as well

Agreed. We know some of its members were bribed by Thaksin. On the other hand, it banned duly elected Pita for exactly the same reason it removed Thaksin's brother-in-law. Very sadly for this country, Pita and/or his handlers had not done all their detailed due diligence or they would have discovered and declared the old holdings of shares at one time held by Pita. That was the basis of his disbarment. On the other hand, even if that ancient shareholding had been declared in advance, I am certain the elite would have found another way of disbaring him.

He is presently in the USA and thankfully has vowed to return to Thai politics. I have a feeling that whenever the next election is held, his new party will gain such a big majority it will be difficult for the elite to get rid of him.

[khaolakguy]

5 hours ago, PeterRS said:

5 hours ago, vinapu said:

I venture to say Thai public doesn't believe for impartiality of Constitutional Court which after all removed duly elected Pita from politics as well

Agreed. We know some of its members were bribed by Thaksin.

I don't think that it is wise to state this as fact on a public forum, even if you believe it to be true. 

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, khaolakguy said:

I don't think that it is wise to state this as fact on a public forum, even if you believe it to be true. 

Why not? It's been quoted in the media.

[khaolakguy]

Please provide sources confirming that Thaksin was found guilty of bribing the Constitutional Court. 

[zoomomancs]

Lawyer said driver should have picked up the chocolates but judge was unimpressed:

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/thailand-jails-thaksin-lawyers-in-snack-box-case-idUSBKK260867/

[PeterRS]

4 hours ago, khaolakguy said:

Please provide sources confirming that Thaksin was found guilty of bribing the Constitutional Court. 

You've been around on this board for over 20 years and must be perfectly well aware of events surrounding Thaksin and his wife's corruption. If they tried to bribe a court official in his wife's court case with a paltry $60,000 and he had hidden $50 million in order to become first Deputy Prime Minister, the amount paid to certain Constitutional Court members was very substantial in order to gain an 8-7 verdict! There was even a thread about it on this Board which you can check. If you can tell me where else to find Thai media from 2001 on the internet, I will happily provide sources.

Presently this exists on one site -

The issue resurfaced ahead of the 2001 general election when Thaksin had founded the Thai Rak Thai Party. A petition was filed with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) requesting an investigation into Thaksin’s asset declaration during his tenure as deputy prime minister in Chavalit’s administration.

The complaint alleged that Thaksin may have filed a false asset declaration, as billions of baht worth of shares were still officially registered under the names of domestic workers and drivers.

The NACC unanimously ruled that Thaksin had deliberately filed a false asset declaration and referred the case to the Constitutional Court for a verdict.

Despite this controversy emerging just before the 2001 general election, Thaksin’s popularity was at an all-time high, leading Thai Rak Thai to a landslide victory and securing Thaksin’s first term as prime minister.

During his defence before the Constitutional Court, Thaksin famously argued that he had made an “honest mistake”. In a highly controversial 8-7 ruling, the court found that Thaksin had not intentionally filed a false asset declaration, despite heavy public criticism at the time.

An honest mistake? Parking $50 million with domestic workers? Absolutely no one believed that! 

https://asianews.network/tracing-the-shinawatra-hidden-assets-controversy/

And this from Thaiger on December 26 2000 -

BANGKOK (AFP): Thailand’s anti-graft watchdog ruled today that leading prime ministerial candidate Thaksin Shinawatra was guilty of filing a false declaration of his assets, an offence that could result in him being banned from politics for five years. The nine-member board of the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) voted 8-1 that Thaksin “intentionally filed a false statement of assets”, said NCCC president Ophars Arunin. He added that the case will now be referred to the Constitutional Court, which must ratify the NCCC’s decision before the ban can take effect. The inquiry into Thaksin covered shareholdings in 17 companies that he failed to disclose in declarations made during a brief stint as deputy prime minister in August 1997. It also investigated the dubious transfer of shares in several other companies to a group of his relatives and servants.

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/Thaksin-found-guilty-false-declarations#google_vignette

[Latbear4blk]

Do we have Thai government spies in the forum?

[khaolakguy]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

You've been around on this board for over 20 years and must be perfectly well aware of events surrounding Thaksin and his wife's corruption

As you say every one knows these stories, but there isn't one reference that you have supplied that supports the statement that you made that Thaksin bribed members of the Constitutional Court. Given that you have named no individual member of the Court you are in effect accusing them all of being potential recipients of bribes you say were paid to the court by Thaksin.

When I pointed out that it wasn't wise to make this statement on a public forum, you doubled down and stated that this Information was in the media. You have clearly not been able to provide any media reference that confirms this so I repeat that your statement is unwise, especially in Thailand, and I think that you should ask Oz to remove your comments, and my responses.

[PeterRS]

10 hours ago, khaolakguy said:

As you say every one knows these stories, but there isn't one reference that you have supplied that supports the statement that you made that Thaksin bribed members of the Constitutional Court. Given that you have named no individual member of the Court you are in effect accusing them all of being potential recipients of bribes you say were paid to the court by Thaksin.

When I pointed out that it wasn't wise to make this statement on a public forum, you doubled down and stated that this Information was in the media. You have clearly not been able to provide any media reference that confirms this so I repeat that your statement is unwise, especially in Thailand, and I think that you should ask Oz to remove your comments, and my responses.

What nonsense! Everyone in Thailand was made perfectly well aware that Thaksin bribed his way to power. He was ultra-ambitious, having been Deputy PM he wanted the top job. The facts could not be more simple.

In order to hide his massive wealth, he parked US$50 million of his assets with his housekeeping staff and drivers who then technically owned them. They later publicly alleged they knew nothing about this! Thaksin was accused of massive corruption. 

The case was referred to the National Anti Corruption Commission. It voted 17-1 that he had deliberately filed a false declaration of assets and was guilty of corruption. 17- 1 against! Not a close run thing. Not 10-8 or 11-7. A virtually unanimous decision. But the case had to be referred to the Constitutional Court.

Before the Constitutional Court, Thaksin argued that the handing over of US$50 million to his staff and not declaring it was "an honest mistake". Huh? How do you divest yourself of such a massive - repeat "massive" - amount of money and actually believe you had made an "honest" mistake? That is pure b/s and almost everyone in Thailand agreed.

But - when appearing before the Constitutional Court, the ruling was 8-7 in his favour. How on earth does a 17-1 majority in the Corruption Court suddenly become a 7-8 minority? Through corruption. It was perfectly well known at the time - and @khaolakguy was either blind or one of the army of fans of Thaksin not to be even aware of it.

But it was some time later stated in the media that some members of the Constitutional Court had been bribed - primarily because Thaksin was a hugely popular figure in Thailand. Indeed many regared him as the coutry's saviour after the July 1997 economic debacle. Had they voted against him, the country would have been in uproar.

So - you had corruption and vast popularity. As I stated earlier, it is very, very difficult to find on the internet items from a quarter of a century ago. Besides, that Constitutional Court was abolished in 2006. I am not prepared to spend hours and hours trying to find more information for @khaolakguy whose eyes and ears appear to have been closed at the time. 

But there is another point that has escaped @khaolakguy. Perhaps he can explain to readers why four of the Consitutional Court judges were then dismissed? This from Thaksin's wikipedia entry - "there is still a part of society that is skeptical of the court's decision and sees Thaksin as disrupting the justice process, leading to the complaint and removal of four Constitutional Court judges." Let me repeat - "leading to the complaint and removal of four Constitutional Court judges". If he wants exact details of these evictions, he can find them here -  พ.ต.ท.ทักษิณถูกมองว่าแทรกแทรงกระบวนการยุติธรรม

Now @khaolakguy, please withdraw your stupid allegations.