Possible Thai Military Coup on the way

[khaolakguy]

Thai PM seems to have shot herself in the foot by deferring to Cambodians over recent border issues in a leaked call. 

She is due to have a meeting with the criticised Thai General, which might be awkward. 

History suggests that Shinawatra disputes with the army do not end well for the Shinawatras.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/20/thai-prime-minister-paetongtarn-shinawatra-apologises-phone-leak-crisis-cambodia-hun-sen

[khaolakguy]

Cambodia halts fuel and gas imports from Thailand as crisis simmers. 

This simmering crisis doesn't seem to be being reported as much in the Thai Media. Although our intrepid reporters advise that it is nevertheless impacting on the available Cambodian guys in both Bangkok and Pattaya.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/22/cambodia-halts-fuel-and-gas-imports-from-thailand-as-crisis-simmers

[PeterRS]

There is certainly tension within the government over the Prime Minister's total stupidity in assuming her phone call to Hun Sen from a mobile phone would be completely private. Has she not learned from a host of world leaders over the years whose supposedly private talks often have a habit of being overheard and then leaked to the media? It is perhaps just one mark of her total lack of experience to be Prime Minister. After all, she was only put into the position due to her father's party being the largest one in the coalition of several parties that make up Thailand's present government. And after the powers-that-be had wangled a way to get rid of the duly elected Prime Minister Pita Limjaroenrat and banned his Move Forward party.

The PM is now saying that all her coalition partners stand behind her. All but one, that is, for last week one of her major partners, the Bhumjaithai Party, pulled out of the government. That party held 69 seats. Other parties are hanging on for now, but may pull out any day soon. That will give the PM little option other than to resign, face a vote of no confidence or a call for the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

And that is not her only concern. Following a petition he received at the end of last week, the Senate Speaker Mongkol Surasajja has asked the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate her over the Hun Sen episode. He has also asked the Constitutional Court to terminate her premiership in accordance with four articles in the Constitution. Members of the Senate Military Affairs Commission accused the PM in their petition of being "dishonest" and "committing acts of gross ethical misconduct."

Could this lead to a coup? In Thailand's murky politics absolutely nothing can be ruled out, but I think it is unlikely in the first instance. 

https://world.thaipbs.or.th/detail/senate-to-seek-paetongtarns-removal-as-prime-minister/57930

[PeterRS]

Hun Sen is now turning his ire on the Shinawatra clan. He has accused the PM's father of feigning the illness that kept him out of prison, something most Thais had probably assumed.

"Hun Sen claimed that Thaksin was not genuinely ill, accusing him of pretending to suffer from symptoms such as chills, shivering and other exaggerated signs — like being chills in a tractor, chills in a car, chills while eating and chills while performing — all staged to avoid court proceedings in multiple legal cases.

"Hun Sen recounted that when he visited Thaksin on Feb 21, 2024, Thaksin showed no signs of illness. However, when taking photos together, Thaksin wore medical equipment typically used by patients, allegedly to deceive the public and Thai officials."

Of the preent situation,

"He claimed he had 'lost patience' with the Thai prime minister due to repeated insults, describing her comments to the Second Army Region commander as rebellious. He also expressed readiness for Cambodia to take military action if necessary. "

More at -

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/3059273/hun-sen-says-thailand-owes-him-gratitude-threatens-to-expose-shinawatras

[Keithambrose]

My Thai friends  say that General Prayut is hovering in background,  thinking of making a return!

[PeterRS]

It's been known for years that one who has coveted the role of PM for some years is the former Deputy PM and one-time Minister of Health, Anutin Charnvirakul - never a fan of western foreigners living in Thailand. Even though he led his Bhumjaithai Party out of the government last week over the Cambodia situation, the likelihood is that he will be hatching some plot in the background.

[Keithambrose]

21 hours ago, PeterRS said:

It's been known for years that one who has coveted the role of PM for some years is the former Deputy PM and one-time Minister of Health, Anutin Charnvirakul - never a fan of western foreigners living in Thailand. Even though he led his Bhumjaithai Party out of the government last week over the Cambodia situation, the likelihood is that he will be hatching some plot in the background.

Whose family are big in cannabis farms, I believe, what a surprise....

[PeterRS]

The public protests have started. Yesterday evening a crowd estimated at 10,000 or more congregated at Victory Monument to hear a number of speeches, the main topic being that the Prime Minister must go. As reported in today's Bangkok Post, while veteran protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul said -

"he doesn’t want to see the situation deteriorate to the point where another coup happens, 'I won’t object if the military does something.'" 

Worse was to come for the Shinawatra clan. Once the darling of masses of Thais, Thaksin Shinawatra has become part of the dialogue and it will not be what he wants to hear.

"Saturday’s rally concluded with a pledge by Jatuporn Prompan, a former red shirt leader who is now an outspoken critic of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, that there would be more to come if Thaksin’s daughter clings to power."

Dr Warong Dechgitvigrom, the royalist leader of the Thai Pakdee Party, mentioned past political movements that led to the removal of Thaksin, Somchai Wongsawat (Thaksin’s brother-in-law) and Yingluck Shinawatra. He warned that Ms Paetongtarn was on a similar path. 

“She should be alarmed seeing the crowds here today. If she doesn’t change course, she has no choice but to step down,” he said.

“We are facing a prime minister with the DNA of a traitor, while our soldiers protect national sovereignty.”

Protestors also turned their anger on any party which supports the Prime Minister.

"In earlier speeches amid intermittent heavy rain at Victory Monument, other protest leaders said that not only Ms Paetongtarn, but any parties that support the coalition government, must go."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/3059860/protest-leader-we-dont-want-a-coup-but-…

[vinapu]

Thai politics is true swamp. It looks Shinawatras are reaping poisoned fruits of kowtowing to royalist cabal in order to be put in power and betrayed their base.

Pita awaits for a job he was elected to.

[PeterRS]

It's a typical case of how the mighty are fallen with changing times. Thaksin senior came to power when the country was almost at its lowest ebb following the disastrous economic mess left by the government at the start of the Asian Economic Crisis in July 1997. Although he was a crook and should never have become Prime Minister - having parked over US$50 million shares in his company with his gardener, drivers and housekeepers who knew nothing about it, and then bribed the Constitutional Court - he was hugely popular in his fan base in the north and east. And being frank he did get the country moving forward economically again. Some of his policies were very beneficial, including the cheap health scheme for all Thais. 

But power, probably never far from his mind, took over. I suspect he never forgot what he must have perceived as a huge embarrassment when dethroned by a coup when out of the country. Then the media discovered about the lunchboxes filled with cash handed over to lawyers as his wife attempted to escape from her court charges. Fleeing first to Beijing and then Dubai, no doubt he assumed, as most in power do, that he could still retain his grip, the more so after two relatives took over the post of PM. But each was dethroned. In the meantime, the Hun Sen issue which has largely sparked the present crisis, started when Thaksin became a special advisor in exile to Cambodia in 2009. Hun Sen refused all attempts to deport him back to Thailand where he and his wife were facing court cases. 

His younger sister Yingluck came to power on the basis of utterly ridiculous policies - first car rebates for up to 600,000 new cars yet no new roads, a tablet for every child (a huge number arrived from China defective and most kids just used them to play computer games!) etc. Worst of all was a rice pledging scheme promising farmers a minimum price for their rice, a price that was way above the world average. This resulted in a huge scandal. Massive mismanagement and corruption led to this costing the government a total of around US$19 billion with Thai warehouses stuffed with rotting rice which could not be sold. Thailand lost its position as the leading rice exporter with Vietnam and India quickly taking over this position. After  being tried and found guilty by the Constitutional Court, like her parents Yingluck also fled the country to avoid imprisonment. Before then, though, yet another military coup had taken the reigns of power.

Now the Shinawatra influence in Thailand seems finally to be at an end. But this is Thailand. No one really knows what the future will bring.

[khaolakguy]

 

Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has come under mounting pressure to resign over her leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.

The clip, in which Paetongtarn called him "uncle" and criticised a Thai military commander, sparked public anger and a petition for her dismissal, which the court is now considering.

That would make Paetongtarn the third politician in the powerful Shinawatra clan - which has dominated Thai politics for the past two decades - to lose power before completing their term. 

Her ruling coalition is already teetering with a slim majority after a key conservative ally abandoned it two weeks ago.

The Constitutional Court voted 7-2 to suspend her while they consider the case for her dismissal and she has 15 days to present her defence.

In the meantime deputy PM Suriya Jungrungruangkit will serve as the country's acting leader.

If she is eventually dismissed, Paetongtarn will be the second prime minister from the Pheu Thai party to be removed from premiership since August last year.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vrrj72xy7o

[PeterRS]

26 minutes ago, khaolakguy said:

If she is eventually dismissed, Paetongtarn will be the second prime minister from the Pheu Thai party to be removed from premiership since August last year.

The Pheu Thai party is the third incarnation of the Thai Rak Thai party which her father founded. If the PM is ousted it can hardly be expected to continue. Sic transit . . .