The war in Iran

[Suckrates]

8 minutes ago, vinapu said:

the same good which comes of every war , i.e. overpopulation will be reduced for a while.

And Americans will still remain hungry, sick and unemployed as they fund a Democracy movement for the Iranians....

Gee, isnt America GREAT !     GOD BLESS DONALD J TRUMP .........

[Moses]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

This war undercuts basic principles America says it stands for.

The list of American interventions shows, what "America says" and "America does" are two quite opposite things. And shows what America has no principles: look on the table above comparing Miloshevic and Syngman Rhee.

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

the same good which comes of every war , i.e. overpopulation will be reduced for a while.

Right now, seems like the world has an overpopulation of authoritarians, theocrats, and American wannabe Kings.

Personally, I wouldn't mind if there were a few less of them.  🫢

[stevenkesslar]

5 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I also hope some good will come out of it. 

 

3 hours ago, vinapu said:

the same good which comes of every war , i.e. overpopulation will be reduced for a while.

 

The Financial Times came up with a nice headline and definition of "some good"  for me.

The cynical opportunities of ‘Epic Fury’

 

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when considering this administration, the best bet is the most cynical.

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Trump cares not a jot about democracy. A collapse into chaos is possible. But more likely still is that new “strongmen” emerge with roots in the Revolutionary Guards. Trump then may seek a deal: we will leave you in power if you stop threatening your neighbours and let us share in the oil. Iran has 9 per cent of global oil reserves but only 5 per cent of oil output: the upside is clear.

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Will there be takers among Iran’s new rulers, after this brutal lesson in US (and Israeli) power? I would bet there will. If such a deal is reached, the Gulf could return to stability, indeed far more stability than in the decades since the Iranian revolution.

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Whether Trump planned it or not, he might have created the conditions for a deal with those who control Iran’s levers of power. Such a deal would be acceptable to its neighbours, who do not want a democratic Iran. US power would have been demonstrated. Europe and China would have been discomforted. Iran’s rulers (and the Trump family) would be richer. What would be not to like about all of this, at least for Trump?

 

To set the bar very low, that sounds better to me than World War III.  

To set the bar a bit higher, it defangs Iran for a while without changing anything fundamental about a bad situation for most Iranians.   But it doesn't lead to a bloodbath like when the US took out leaders in Iraq and Libya.

This is what other Trump alumni like Anthony Scaramucci have been speculating about already.  When it comes to Trump, cynicism is always best. 

In effect, Trump is saying to Venezuela, and possibly Iran:  FUCK DEMOCRACY.  You can be an authoritarian.  As long as you are my authoritarian.  Otherwise you die. 

Eat your heart out, Vlad.  When your buddy Patriot Pete runs a very powerful military, and you have the Genocide Jew as your partner in crime, you can get lots of shit done.  Whether it's good shit or not is a different question.

The question already on  the table is:  does America want to be the world's bully? 

@Moses likes to bring up Hiroshima.  My Dad fought in WWII, and was in the Navy near Japan.  He spent the rest of his life being proud that America was the world's good cop.  In his eyes.  That's a different thing than being the world's bully.  Although I'm sure these days most MAGA people will argue it's the same thing.

My eyes are on Gavin Newsom.  He has never lost an election, so far.  I think he is a good politician in that he can feel where the wind is blowing.  And he has a coherent set of liberal principles.  As one example I care about, he was ahead of the curve on same sex marriage.  Now he is ranting about how this is a war America did not want.  And about how further military support to Israel, which practices genocide, is now in question in his mind.  That will be a big debate in the Democratic Party.  And a good one.

The thing I am most hoping for is that America rejects this course.  In others words, Americans don't want to be the world's bully.  That will be a huge internal fight.   Assuming we continue to be a democracy that has internal fights.

[Stable Genius]

The Americans began urgently recruiting staff at Dover Air Base to sort the personal belongings of the dead soldiers.

[Suckrates]

 

"I cant't Go.....I inherited Bone Spurs"..........   (and I'm a FREAK)  

[bucknaway]

[Stable Genius]

While Trump struts around demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" it appears:

1) The U.S. and multiple Gulf nations are already running dangerously low on missiles (Tomahawks, interceptors), an expensive and finite resource being used against comparatively cheap and easily manufactured Iranian drones.

2) China agreed to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts, and missile components in exchange for safe passage of China bound oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

3) Russia is already providing Iran with military intelligence (strike points, etc.) and manufacturing Iranian drones.

Amateur hour continues...

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

8 minutes ago, Stable Genius said:

While Trump struts around demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" it appears:

1) The U.S. and multiple Gulf nations are already running dangerously low on missiles (Tomahawks, interceptors), an expensive and finite resource being used against comparatively cheap and easily manufactured Iranian drones.

2) China agreed to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts, and missile components in exchange for safe passage of China bound oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

3) Russia is already providing Iran with military intelligence (strike points, etc.) and manufacturing Iranian drones.

Amateur hour continues...

 

 

 

 

4) Oil spikes to over $90 and Republicans freak out.  Trump, the grand strategist, suddenly realizes the Genocide Jew played him.  Now he has two choices:  make whatever deal he can get by handing his two ugly useless testicles over to the mullahs, or see a Republican wipe out in 2026 thanks to war/oil prices/inflation.  

5) Trump thinks:  how can I stop the elections?  Why do people need to vote anyway?

Vote the pro-peace ticket. Vote Trump-Vance

[unicorn]

On 3/4/2026 at 6:04 AM, vinapu said:

lesson is, stick to the winners

Putin doesn't seem to have followed your sage advice. He's been helping the Iranians. I'm sure that'll really endear himself to Tumplethinskin. It might push the rug-wearing thunder-nugget to let Ukraine get more weapons?

[bucknaway]

[Stable Genius]

The fun has just begun!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15623983/Southwest-flight-diverted-Atlanta-security-threat-Iran.html

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, unicorn said:

Putin doesn't seem to have followed your sage advice. 

and that's the moment I'm not sure I'd take an offence. 

[bucknaway]

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

Lesson is, stick to the winners

 

7 hours ago, unicorn said:

Putin doesn't seem to have followed your sage advice. He's been helping the Iranians. 

 

It's way too early to tell.  But there is a good chance Putin is sticking with the winners:  the Iranians.

Maybe Trump felt he couldn't define the goal as obliterating Iran's nukes, since he supposedly already obliterated them months ago.  Do we have to re-obliterate them twice a year?  Or only every five years?

So, for whatever reason, President "No Forever Wars" defined the goal as regime change.  Repeatedly.  Even though his own staff doesn't seem to be clear on that.

As of now, the President of Iran is publicly telling Trump to go get fucked.  And that Trump can take his regime change wish "to your grave".  Verbatim.  Trump's reaction strongly suggests this was not his plan.  And that he has no plan.

It's hard to argue Iran is winning.  But it will win, in a way, as long as it survives.  Nothing suggests Iran will collapse.  Or that you can win a war with air power. 

And that's the good news.  The bad news is this maybe opens a bloodbath civil war and/or regional war or insurgency.  Oil prices stay high for months or years.  Economies sink into recession.  All thanks to the United States of America.  Land of liberty.

So I'd argue Putin is the winner, for sure.

1.  Oil prices soar.  His war economy just got a massive infusion.

2.  We just established that international law is a joke.  And you can invade any country you want.  As long as you have the will and the weapons to do it.  Putin has both.

3.  You can kill any leader you want.  Putin should love that.  He looks restrained compared to what we just did.  As many Ukrainian kids as he has killed, did he manage to take out over 100 children with one bombing?  I don't think so.

I think it's almost a fact that in our lifetimes, the lesson of war is that he who overreaches loses.  The Soviet Union overreached in Afghanistan and crumbled.  The US has Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya - to only name the big ones.  None of those wars made America stronger.

I think Russia was losing in Ukraine.  It was sucking Russia of life and money and turning their economy into a human meat grinder.  All by Putin's choice.  Trump managed to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.  I think that will be the verdict by election day.

Gulf War I was a victory, precisely because the Powell Doctrine stressed restraint.  We came, we won, we left.  As of today, Trump actually came close to that in Venezuela.  He could have called it a win and focused on high prices. 

But no.  That's so not the arrogant moron Trump is.

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, bucknaway said:

 

The stupid yapping dog gets excited by war and blood.  I think @Barknaway gets excited because he smells blood and the chance to rip someone's throat open.  He's a dog.  Just stupid.

Bill Maher is not a dog.  And he is not stupid.  But he is apparently unaware, or unconcerned, about what most Americans think.

20 years on, most Americans say Iraq invasion was the wrong decision

61 %, Bill.   Do you not understand math?  Dogs can't do math.  But I thought blowhards could do math.

Meanwhile, even more Americans oppose what the military is doing in Iran, at least according to some polls. 

If you simply ask Americans whether they support what our military is doing in Iran, about 55 to 60  % say no, according to a bunch of polls.  A few right wing pollsters like Trafalgar torture the question by making the question about whether we want Iran to have nukes.

What that tells me is that Trump can't win an honest debate.  The debate will be about whether we needed to start a war with Iran.  Most Americans simply don't believe we needed to.  This is why Trumo keeps lying and saying we did not kill Iranian school girls, and we just had to re-obliterate the nukes we already obliterated.

At least Maher is not a stupid bloodthirsty dog.  He can make rational arguments.  So in that sense Maher is doing some good.  We for sure need a debate right now.

What's also sad about this moment is that this is as good as it gets,.  This is America's "Mission Accomplished" moment.  Khamenei is dead.  Just like when Saddam Hussein was killed.  There is no reason to think it somehow gets better from here.  Or that the majority of Americans who think this was the wrong decision will change their minds.

 

I think those polls tell us everything we need to know. Unless you are a stupid dog.

Thank God America is still a democracy, at least.  If we were Iran and dissent could simply be silenced or slaughtered, this war could go on for years.

I'm guessing both Trump and the Iranian regime that will now try very hard to assassinate Trump, perhaps successfully, know how this works.  I hope they leave Melania and Trump's kids alone.  I'd bet money the plans to kill Trump, and perhaps innocent Americans, after the bombs stop dropping are already being made.

About half of Americans in that poll think this war will last months or years.  The longer it goes on, the higher gas prices and inflation will get, and the less popular Trump's War of The Week will be.  I am hoping Trump is at least smart enough to have that figured out.