If civil war breaks out and spreads

[PattayaMale]

Reading that some foreign news outlets are calling the "protest" a WAR ZONE or a CIVIL WAR, I was wondering what you might do.

 

I never made a poll so see if this works.

[Guest RichLB]

I never made a poll so see if this works.

PM, it works, but it seems you can not put up two polls without requiring the responder to vote in both. Given that one of the choices is "Stay put" that leaves the second poll problematic. You might want to edit it and add a "I'm not leaving" choice to solve that problem.

[Gaybutton]

Well, I make my own decisions despite the parameters of the poll. I checked off "stay put," but I also clicked on Cambodia anyway. That's because there was no selection that offered the option of staying put unless forced out. So, if I'm ever forced out, Cambodia is where I'm most likely to go, at least to start.

[PattayaMale]

Thanks for giving me that heads up on adding the stay put option.

[Guest]

I would continue to visit if there was a civil war that was confined to parts of the country and was avoidable.

[Guest]

Great poll PM. Naturally, I am the one who put Brazil. Why?

[Guest GaySacGuy]

Not easy to answer, as there are many different considerations. I would stay here until such time as I felt it was unsafe to stay. I would then probably go back to the US to wait it out. I don't think that a full out war would spread throughout the country but I could be wrong. If it became necessary, I am only one hour from the Laos border...could go there and then decide my next moves. Hope I don't have to make those decisions!!!

[ChristianPFC]

I booked a flight for a two-weeks holiday in June and July, unless the flight is cancelled I will go to Thailand. But I will wait with booking hotel room, if Bkk is too hot I can skip my stay there an go directly to Pattaya and maybe elesewhere (Chiang Mai or Korat).

[Guest HeyGay]

Cuba is some where I feel safe, but I don't know if I would want to stay to long. in most of the other Asian Countries, they dont have the qualities of Thailand, I have traveled all round the World many times, but even the Paradise of the South Pacific my Favorite is Bora Bora, where there is so many Lady Boys, I asked why, they said as it is the furthest land mass in the World 4000 miles from Los Angeles and 4000 miles from New Zealand, the Pirates of the day, use to take all the women, leaving only men, to get money from the various passing Boats and Ships, so they dressed as women, in those days no one was botherd as the men all use to have each other any way, so nothing has changed, in hundreds of years even in Thailand.

 

 

Not many places like Thailand you feel safe walking in a dark Soi at 3am in the morning Not Cape Town where I like, or even Costa Rico much to dangerous. Well South America is a definite No No, if you have any respect for your life I have been there quite a few times and I saw danger all around.

 

 

There is going to come a time where all countries will be a concrete jungle and nothing left to explore, as most countries are now slowly getting westernized, now we all we are running from even the west, Thailand is going that way now, yes our generation is so lucky to be able to see some countries, before they go on the turn.

 

In 1976 when I came to Thailand first, we all loved it, unspoilt no one trying to change it, now all you hear is the constant bang on the drum, we want Thailand more like the West, with the constant complaints about the people, the food, the way they run the county, go back to your own hell hole, if you don't like it here, just leave Thailand alone as it was.

[Guest cdnmatt]

I'd definitely be in a bind. Would either try to fast-track a VISA for Kim, preferably a student VISA, or else I'd have to stay put. Well, we could always go vacation in Laos for a month or two, but then again, he has his family here.

 

Let's just hope that decisions like that don't need to be made. I highly doubt it though. We're talking 5000 people out of 65,000,000 causing civil unrest, so it's basically impossible for this to escalate much further. It's not like all of a sudden an extra 5,000,000 people will take up arms against the government.

[Guest GaySacGuy]

 

Let's just hope that decisions like that don't need to be made. I highly doubt it though. We're talking 5000 people out of 65,000,000 causing civil unrest, so it's basically impossible for this to escalate much further. It's not like all of a sudden an extra 5,000,000 people will take up arms against the government.

 

I sure hope you are right, but I think it could escalate by several thousand if redshirts in the various communities around the country start civil unrest in their home areas. I just hope that doesn't happen!!

[Guest Soi10Tom]

The day to day guessing as to what will or won't happen is a rather myopic view of the events in Thailand. This "Revolution" has been in progress for many years.

 

If history is to be the teacher: This cycle of violence and revolution is nothing new on the world stage and has been repeated hundreds of times around the world over a period of hundreds of years.

 

The government will be successful in driving the revolutionaries out of the big cities, and that will be followed by an insurgency in the smaller towns and countryside that will eventually work it's way back into the bigger cities. Long term history is on the side of the Red Shirts, and their victory will probably be some years down the road and bloody.

[Guest Winai]

I don't know about you guys but if the "revolution" shows signs of creeping into Pattaya I'm out on the first flight available.

[KhorTose]

The day to day guessing as to what will or won't happen is a rather myopic view of the events in Thailand. This "Revolution" has been in progress for many years.

If history is to be the teacher: This cycle of violence and revolution is nothing new on the world stage and has been repeated hundreds of times around the world over a period of hundreds of years.

The government will be successful in driving the revolutionaries out of the big cities, and that will be followed by an insurgency in the smaller towns and countryside that will eventually work it's way back into the bigger cities. Long term history is on the side of the Red Shirts, and their victory will probably be some years down the road and bloody.

 

I agree, and you can find examples of what you are saying in the American revolution, the French revolution, the Italian revolution, and the Russian revolution. Sometimes it takes generations, but it does happen. I do not think this one will be that long down the road, as things do move faster now-a-days. Of couse there are two ways to counter this kind of popular awakening movement. Compromise like the British, and the Germans did with their people in 1848, or total rule of the gun, similar to what Burma has. What kind of country do you want to live in?

[Guest fountainhall]

Sometimes it takes generations, but it does happen. I do not think this one will be that long down the road, as things do move faster now-a-days

I hope I do not have to "do a GB" by making a prediction that ends up quite at odds with reality, but I do not believe revolution/civil war will break out. I think there are a whole lot of differences between Thailand in 2010 and the oppressive regimes/national aspirations of the 1800s and the Cold War related revolutions of the 1900s. Despite the understandable grievances of the poor, we all know that the protests have been largely fuelled by Thaksin's cash. Not only is the government finally trying to turn that particular tap off (far too late in my view), if he does not get his $1.45 billion returned, Thaksin himself is unlikely to be able to fund more large-scale protests in future (my very rough back-of-the-envelope accounting indicates the cost at around US$400 million and counting). As revolutions throughout the ages have shown, lengthy mass protests require some form of major funding.

 

Secondly, whilst some Thais will feel even more aggrieved when the present crack down succeeds and that resentment will continue to simmer, I believe the majority of Thais are genuinely shocked at what the red shirts have done to their capital city. These citizens will be far less prepared to put up with any such mass protest in future. It may be that isolated protests will develop in red-shirt heartlands, but I cannot see anything like the scale of the present protest happening again.

 

Here in Europe, it's interesting that the troubles in Thailand are slowly slipping down the news bulletins. The problems of continuing travel cancellations due to the ash cloud from Iceland and even greater economic concerns over the fate of the rapidly falling Euro are getting far more airtime. Thailand's troubles have been going on for so long that they are largely becoming irrelevant. Hopefully that will have positive results for tourism - eventually.

[KhorTose]

Despite the understandable grievances of the poor, we all know that the protests have been largely fuelled by Thaksin's cash. Not only is the government finally trying to turn that particular tap off (far too late in my view), if he does not get his $1.45 billion returned, Thaksin himself is unlikely to be able to fund more large-scale protests in future (my very rough back-of-the-envelope accounting indicates the cost at around US$400 million and counting). As revolutions throughout the ages have shown, lengthy mass protests require some form of major funding.

 

Actually, the mass protest in the past have not require funding, and I find it terribly hard to believe that people are dying in the streets because Thaskin is paying them. I really think you are underestimating the reality of the red shirt movement, and the strength of their belief in their cause. However, we are now both on record and I for one will remind you when we know the results. Please, do not get me wrong, I am still hoping for needed and necessary compromise and not a civil war.

[Guest fountainhall]

Actually, the mass protest in the past have not require funding, and I find it terribly hard to believe that people are dying in the streets because Thaskin is paying them. I really think you are underestimating the reality of the red shirt movement, and the strength of their belief in their cause. However, we are now both on record and I for one will remind you when we know the results. Please, do not get me wrong, I am still hoping for needed and necessary compromise and not a civil war.

So we both hope for the same thing. But to suggest that the French revolutionaries and Lenin and his comrades did not require financing is plainly flying in the face of reality and history. Equally, to suggest the red shirts are not being paid in the face of a lot of evidence (seen by me for one when I toured the red shirt area) is just as fanciful. Everyone knows those in the compound were paid - a minimum of Bt. 1,000 per day with extra benefits in the case of front line action and death. We also know for a fact that there was a major inflow of foreign currency just prior to the start of the protest. The government initiated a review of where it came from, but I have not yet seen any result.

 

I have been thinking more today about your analogy with the "the French revolution, the Italian revolution, and the Russian revolution". I really can not see much parallel with the chronic desperation and utter poverty of the mass of the French and the Russians (I know much less about what happened in Italy, but that has always seemed to me far more nationalist-driven than poverty-driven). It does seem as though the red-shirts have more in common with the students in Beijing in 1989. I agree that these were less concerned with poverty as they were with government accountability and other perceived injustices, but there is definitely a similarity. I was in Beijing in May 1989 a couple of weeks before the crackdown and again a month after the event. Beforehand there was a great deal of bewilderment that such a large gathering could assemble without any specific leadership. It was just a spontaneous protest resulting from the death of a popular party Secretary-General Hu Yaobang that just quickly grew and grew.

 

In the month following the army action and many deaths, everyone I spoke to in Beijing said the government had "lost" the citizens of Beijing. It would never be trusted again. I mention this because now, 21 years later, very few people I know in Beijing feel the same way. The government gets a lot of credit for its huge economic and international developments. It's almost as though 1989 never happened and no-one seems to care about "government accountability and other perceived injustices".

 

If, once the red-shirt protest is over, economic growth progresses at a fast pace and the new wealth does similarly filter down to all Thais, I have a sneaking suspicion that by 2031 the events of 2010 will similarly fade from peoples' memories. I accept, though, that this is a big "if".

[KhorTose]

But to suggest that the French revolutionaries and Lenin and his comrades did not require financing is plainly flying in the face of reality and history.

Well you are going to have to tell me where the money came from in each case as my history books (my degree is in history) called them all middle class revolutions and some happened overnight and others took years. For instance the Russian revolution started in 1905 and Lenin was just another player until after the Czar was overthrown. He was not even the leader at that time. I suggest you read "A people's tragedy" by Orlando Figes, as it is one of the best books I have seen on the subject.

 

Equally, to suggest the red shirts are not being paid in the face of a lot of evidence (seen by me for one when I toured the red shirt area) is just as fanciful. Everyone knows those in the compound were paid - a minimum of Bt. 1,000 per day with extra benefits in the case of front line action and death. We also know for a fact that there was a major inflow of foreign currency just prior to the start of the protest. The government initiated a review of where it came from, but I have not yet seen any result.

 

I have a little trouble believing the government, but I do believe your evidence. as I do not believe that you would lie to make a point. So you think the average Thai is willing to get killed for 1000 Baht per day. I don't believe that. However I think they would willingly die for a cause they believe in. These are not ignorant peasants. You are making the same mistake the government is making.

 

I have been thinking more today about your analogy with the "the French revolution, the Italian revolution, and the Russian revolution". I really can not see much parallel with the chronic desperation and utter poverty of the mass of the French and the Russians (I know much less about what happened in Italy, but that has always seemed to me far more nationalist-driven than poverty-driven).

Yes that could apply in Italy's case but definitely poverty, and the desire to have a voice in goverment in the Russian and French case. Remember the Russian revolution really started in 1905.

 

In the month following the army action and many deaths, everyone I spoke to in Beijing said the government had "lost" the citizens of Beijing. It would never be trusted again. I mention this because now, 21 years later, very few people I know in Beijing feel the same way. The government gets a lot of credit for its huge economic and international developments. It's almost as though 1989 never happened and no-one seems to care about "government accountability and other perceived injustices".

 

Good point, but in a sense they did buy off (compromise with) the protesters, something this government seems to have no intention of doing. Secondly, what is going to happen in China when the gravy train ends? That will be the true test of the government's popularity, and its ability to hold power without giving the people a greater voice in their government.

 

I leave you with my one of my favorite quotes which is often misquoted. This is for the Thai government. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."--George Santayana

[Guest fountainhall]

Well you are going to have to tell me where the money came from in each case as my history books (my degree is in history) called them all middle class revolutions and some happened overnight and others took years. For instance the Russian revolution started in 1905 and Lenin was just another player until after the Czar was overthrown.

I will yield to your greater knowledge of history. But I was always told that France in 1789 was totally bankrupt and that the revolutionaries had to raise funds from a variety of sources, including overseas. Likewise, did not the leaders of the Russian revolution receive many tens of millions from people like the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers and the Warburgs? Starting a revolution is not that difficult, I would imagine, but you simply cannot keep it going unless you have cash.

 

I have a little trouble believing the government, but I do believe your evidence. as I do not believe that you would lie to make a point. So you think the average Thai is willing to get killed for 1000 Baht per day. I don't believe that.

I have a problem with your beliefs, since one statement all but contradicts the other! You have clearly not been reading other threads about the red-shirts. A friend with a business outside Bangkok told me in all sincerity one of his staff had left to join the Bangkok protests because he would "earn Bt. 1,000 per day". And when I walked through the red-shirts compound, I saw a long line of protesters queuing up with money changing hands. The 'tent' was close to the Four Seasons Hotel. I cannot put my hand on heart and say each got Bt. 1,000, but my friend would have absolutely no reason to lie.

 

What is going to happen in China when the gravy train ends? That will be the true test of the government's popularity, and its ability to hold power without giving the people a greater voice in their government.

Like many westerners, you fail to give the Chinese government credit for pulling hundreds of millions out of poverty, and instead express concern about its inability to change. I think China has done a far better job than most western governments in the last few decades. And as one who visits China regularly, I don't hear my Chinese friends clamouring for a greater say in their government. I am sure it will come - as I am equally sure that the government will gradually change. But both events are still a long way away.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

My bf told me that at one point Abhisit had a large group of red shirts meet at a temple and he asked them in front of the Buddha to raise their hand if they never received money to protest. Not one person raised their hand. As we know Thais are very devout when it comes to the Buddha.

[KhorTose]

I will yield to your greater knowledge of history. But I was always told that France in 1789 was totally bankrupt and that the revolutionaries had to raise funds from a variety of sources, including overseas. Likewise, did not the leaders of the Russian revolution receive many tens of millions from people like the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers and the Warburgs? Starting a revolution is not that difficult, I would imagine, but you simply cannot keep it going unless you have cash.

 

No you can easily have a revolution when people are fed up enough. Revolutions are not plots of a few but mass disturbances. So is what is happening in Bangkok. Have you forgotten that the red shirts had the most votes when there was an election. Please you are about to lose me as a responder if you are telling me you believe the crap that was called, "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion". I will not even discuss or in any way acknowledge that racist, piece of crap. No, I am not Jewish.

 

I have a problem with your beliefs, since one statement all but contradicts the other! You have clearly not been reading other threads about the red-shirts. A friend with a business outside Bangkok told me in all sincerity one of his staff had left to join the Bangkok protests because he would "earn Bt. 1,000 per day". And when I walked through the red-shirts compound, I saw a long line of protesters queuing up with money changing hands. The 'tent' was close to the Four Seasons Hotel. I cannot put my hand on heart and say each got Bt. 1,000, but my friend would have absolutely no reason to lie.

 

Thank you for that admission. I was suspicious of your statement, but did not think you are a liar. I will not accept what you unknown friend say however. I am reading all the thread on all the boards and watching the films. Are you watching the films on U-tube that can be found on Ting and Tong and the articles on Baht stop, or are you just looking for things to support your belief system

 

Like many westerners, you fail to give the Chinese government credit for pulling hundreds of millions out of poverty, and instead express concern about its inability to change. I think China has done a far better job than most western governments in the last few decades. And as one who visits China regularly, I don't hear my Chinese friends clamouring for a greater say in their government. I am sure it will come - as I am equally sure that the government will gradually change. But both events are still a long way away.

 

I heard an awful lot of Western business people complain about the corruption in China, and I heard a lot of screaming by Chinese when the earthquake happened and the schools came tumbling down. The China Daily out of Shanghi reports that corruption is the number one problem the people face. http://www.chinadail...ent_9269894.htm Maybe this sounds like a good progressive government that is bent on pulling thousands out of poverty, but I have my doubts as all the bureaucrats are busy lining their pockets, there is no environmental controls, no work place safety, no labor department determining work rules and wages. I freely admit that conditions are better now, then during the cultural revolution, but hardly what I would call a far better job then Western governments protecting their workers and their environment. We have wondered off topic with this one. We are either finished discussing Thailand, or we need to start another thread.

[Guest fountainhall]

Please you are about to lose me as a responder if you are telling me you believe the crap that was called, "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion". I will not even discuss or in any way acknowledge that racist, piece of crap. No, I am not Jewish.

OK, i lose you. But my comments are fact. Anyone can start a revolution. To keep it going, you need cash and often a lot of it. Thaksin's money has funded the red-shirts - but you fail to acknowledge it.

 

I was suspicious of your statement, but did not think you are a liar. I will not accept what you unknown friend say however.

So, just admit it. You do not believe me, because it amounts to the same thing!

 

Maybe this sounds like a good progressive government that is bent on pulling thousands out of poverty, but I have my doubts as all the bureaucrats are busy lining their pockets, there is no environmental controls, no work place safety, no labor department determining work rules and wages

SInce we are talking about fact, let me repeat that hundreds of millions were dragged out of poverty - not "thousands" - more than at any time in history and in the shortest time. You clearly have little actual knowledge of what happens in China, and instead spout out the usual carping, much of which is wrong. Maybe you should go and spend a year or so in China and find out what really happens. But I agree on one thing. We are off message, and so I will cease this part of the discussion.

[KhorTose]

GB does not allow me or anyone else to engage in name calling. You can think whatever pleases you, but I have not called you any names. However, I agree this discussion is over. I would get better conversation and a greater use of facts from Fox news.

[Gaybutton]

GB does not allow me or anyone else to engage in name calling.

I'm looking for name calling, but if it's there I can't find it. If anyone has been posting name calling, please point out where it is and I'll get rid of it and, if necessary, whoever is doing it.

[Guest fountainhall]

Maybe this sounds like a good progressive government that is bent on pulling thousands out of poverty, but I have my doubts as all the bureaucrats are busy lining their pockets, there is no environmental controls, no work place safety, no labor department determining work rules and wages. I freely admit that conditions are better now, then during the cultural revolution, but hardly what I would call a far better job then Western governments protecting their workers and their environment.

Just one short question I forgot to ask. Wasn't there a revolution in China?