Are We Now Closer To World War III?

[unicorn]

4 hours ago, vinapu said:

last thing both countries need is the war

I'm sure you're right, although part of me just can't wait to see Putin go. With his latest provocation, even crazy Trump is saying that NATO should get involved, and push him out of Ukrainian territory. When I think of Putin, I keep thinking of that scene in The Search for Spock, Captain Kirk has had enough of Commander Kruge...

Pissing off the EU was probably not Putin's wisest move.

[jimmie50]

7 hours ago, unicorn said:

I'm sure you're right, although part of me just can't wait to see Putin go

Both Putin and Trump

[vinapu]

10 hours ago, unicorn said:

I'm sure you're right, although part of me just can't wait to see Putin go. With his latest provocation, even crazy Trump is saying that NATO should get involved, and push him out of Ukrainian territory. 

Putin's  problem is one of all autocratic and dictatorial systems - after a while there's nobody to tell autocrats that something is going wrong or it should be done other way i.e. nobody to bring bad news. Most people around them are already cowed, scared  and sold , others plotting against them don't have any interest in correcting wrong course hoping for the worst for the guy at helm.

[unicorn]

7 minutes ago, vinapu said:

Putin's  problem is one of all autocratic and dictatorial systems - after a while there's nobody to tell autocrats that something is going wrong or it should be done other way...

That's so true. Worse, yet, is that when you surround yourself with crazy dingbats whose only quality you look for is loyalty, you get crazy advice. Most often, when Trump makes a crazy decision or statement, one can understand the motive: political gain, financial gain, or both (especially any which involve his staying out of prison). I don't quite understand what he has to gain in instilling fear of immunizations or, especially, acetaminophen. (In the case of immunizations, at least he gains political support from ignorant people who "don't like shots," but I don't see how he gains from instilling fear of acetaminophen). One can easily see the source if this stupid statement, however: HHS Secretary Kennedy, who's clearly severely mentally disturbed. 

At least with Trump, one can hope he'll be gone in 3.5 years, but Putin is "only" 73, and could be around for quite some time unless someone offs him, or he gets arrested by the international community. Even in Trump's case, he's stated publicly that he wants to do away with free elections, so who knows? Both very dangerous criminals.

 

[Moses]

14 hours ago, unicorn said:

Pissing off the EU was probably not Putin's wisest move.

Since EU isn't buyer of Russian goods anymore, he has no reason to care. 

I wrote yet in 2022 - by sanctions EU will shoot own legs: sanctions will cut tools for to control situation and will make strong union btw Russia and China, while EU can't control China because of heavy dependence on Chinese goods - first of all rare materials for any semiconductor manufacturing.

ChatGPT:

[unicorn]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

...while EU can't control China because of heavy dependence on Chinese goods...

The EU and China will probably always have strong trade. In addition to raw materials, the Chinese (unlike the Russians) actually manufacture goods people want to buy. So much seems to be "Made in China" these days. I can't remember every seeing anything anyone wanted to buy which was made in Russia--other than matryoshka dolls. Other than that, Russians just seem to be proficient at digging up stuff and shoveling BS (fertilizer production).

I'm sure Xi shares Putin's concerns regarding how crazy Trump is. However, Xi is not, and never will be, some Lukashenko that will be in Putin's pocket. Xi is many times more powerful--and smarter--than Putin is. While he does share much of Putin's concerns, he's not going to be there for Putin when Putin does stupid things. I doubt that even so-called CSTO allies (other than Belarus) will help Putin if he picks a fight with the EU and/or NATO.

It's true that the world economy relies on China, and that the economy would suffer tremendously if trade with China were compromised. The same is not true of Russia. Prices of raw materials (crude oil, natural gas, minerals) would rise, but the damage would not be as catastrophic as a loss of Chinese trade. 

Putin's only "ace in the hole" is his nuclear weapons. And, I can assure you, Xi would get extremely pissed off if Putin starts using those. Putin loves to use the nuclear threat, but he would probably get almost the entire planet (except maybe Belarus and North Korea) against him if he were to try to use those. 

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

China because of heavy dependence on Chinese goods - first of all rare materials for any semiconductor manufacturing.

 

while very important, next global conflict in my opinion will be about access to water, not relatively frivolous things like semiconductors

[PeterRS]

3 hours ago, unicorn said:

Putin's only "ace in the hole" is his nuclear weapons. And, I can assure you, Xi would get extremely pissed off if Putin starts using those. Putin loves to use the nuclear threat, but he would probably get almost the entire planet (except maybe Belarus and North Korea) against him if he were to try to use those. 

One irony is that Russia and China came within a whisker of using nukes during a major border dispute in 1969. This had the USA and other countries more than just concerned. And it was one of the unstated reasons for Nixon and Mao (no doubt persuaded by the moderate Premier Chou En-lai) cosying up to each other resulting in the change in US policy over Taiwan and Nixon's historic visit to Beijing in 1971.

Putin no doubt thinks that Xi is in his pocket for now. I reckon it's the other way around. Xi is playing Putin because it suits his long term plan. Xi is near pathological about the need for security of his borders. But any form of nuclear war would throw all his planning completely out of kilter. For all his rhetoric, he needs peace, certainly in the short-medium term when he is dealing with massive upheavals at home including a real estate market in a state of virtual collapse (and consequently government revenues very seriously affected) and youth unemployment of well over 20% to the point where the government no longer publishes figures. 

As @unicorn states, Putin really only has the threat of his nuclear weapons. He will know full well that use of nukes anywhere will see his allies desert him like the proverbial rats from the sinking ship and the end of Russia as a world power. Unless his objective will be to see the end of the world.

[PeterRS]

4 hours ago, Moses said:

I wrote yet in 2022 - by sanctions EU will shoot own legs: sanctions will cut tools for to control situation and will make strong union btw Russia and China, while EU can't control China because of heavy dependence on Chinese goods - first of all rare materials for any semiconductor manufacturing.

La-la land once again!

[unicorn]

This video posits a NATO/ANZUS fight against both Russia and China (video made 5 months ago, before the recent Russian provocations). They speculate that China would get involved by invading Taiwan in the context of a Russian attack on Poland and the Baltics, hoping the US and others would be too preoccupied with Putin. I doubt that would happen, though, and suspect China would wisely sit out any war between NATO and Putin. The wild card would be Kim, who's another nut-case.

 

[vinapu]

problem with wars is that rarely they go according to the scripts and scenarios. I doubt Soviets and Americans envisioned they will be tangled in Afghanistan and Vietnam   respectively that long, never mind losing , when they started their adventures.  First world war would never started if all those emperors envisioned what will happen to their countries , thrones and in some cases , heads. 

[PeterRS]

There are times - very few - when I wonder if what has happened in Russia following the fall of the Soviet Union is at least in part the fault of the West. It is clear from a lot of relatively recent accounts that at the start of the Cold War the West seriously overestimated the Soviet capabilities. Soviet propaganda was working overtime and many in the west actually believed it.

With Gorbachev in power, this was even more well known. The Soviet Union was in dire straits, as I could see during my two visits at the end of the Cold War with so many people out on the streets desperately trying to sell their household goods - even pots and pans. The West had no desire to see the Soviet Union continue and was certainly glad when East Germany and other countries in the Soviet bloc were able to break away. But that left Gorbachev and his reforms in disaster territory. Russia was isolated and that led to Yeltsin's sudden rise to the top job. I can recall George Bush Snr. saying on television with a glint in his eye, "The Cold War is over. We won!"

Sure the West won, but it left a Russia holding a large nucear arsenal and not much else at that time. Instead of gloating, could not the West have aided Russia in some way to build up a country which could become close to an ally rather than an adversary? That necessarily assumes that Russia would have wished for and accepted western assistance. But by leaving Russia to its own devices it all but ensured the rise of a man like Putin, a man who believes to this day that the end of the Soviet Union was a disaster.

[Moses]

5 hours ago, PeterRS said:

a man who believes to this day that the end of the Soviet Union was a disaster.

"Anyone who doesn't regret the collapse of the USSR has no heart. And anyone who wants to restore it has no brain." - Putin in 2010 and late: he likes to repeat that. 

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

"Anyone who doesn't regret the collapse of the USSR has no heart. And anyone who wants to restore it has no brain." - Putin in 2010 and late: he likes to repeat that. 

Once again you quote without any reference material!

But I'll accept that, however unlikely, Putin may have changed his mind in the previous five years. There is an excellent book Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union. As it confirms, Putin definitely did declare in 2005 that the collapse of the Soviet Union was "the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."

That book by Prof. Vladislav Zubok was shortlisted for the Pushkin House Book Prize awarded for the best non-fiction writing on Russia in the English language. Zubok is one of the world's leading experts on the history of the Cold War and the Soviet Union. This is a long wide-ranging work but his conclusions will come as a surprise to many.

Firstly, while the west felt Gorbachev was a leader they could work with in ending the Cold War, indeed something of a hero in their eyes, Zubok exposes his faults and character flaws that ensured his instrumental role in the process of destroying the Soviet Union. In contrast to many flattering biographical accounts, Gorbachev was a man bllinded by his idealism, striving for recognition by the liberal west and yet with an inability to acknowledge his own failures. It is worth quoting a series of excerpts from the book dealing mostly with another issue -

In early 1989, the Soviet rules for foreign travel were radically relaxed. It was no longer necessary to grovel and conform to Soviet authorities, including the Party and the KGB, in order to obtain permission for a private trip abroad. During the first half of 1989, the number of approved applications for exit visas reached 1.8 million, three times more than two years earlier . . . The majority applied for a foreign Soviet passport and a permit to leave the USSR and return— for the first time in their life. Bureaucrats and officials, directors of enterprises, cooperative managers, academic scholars, scientists, artists and actors rushed under the rising curtain . . . 

Scholars have studied this phenomenon exclusively as a factor in bringing the Cold War to an end. Yet, it also delegitimized the Soviet system . . . Most Soviet diplomats, KGB officials, and military representatives abroad had become habituated to navigation between the West and their homeland; they lived in a kind of controlled schizophrenia. Gorbachev traveled abroad several times in the late 1960s and 1970s, and began to see a humiliating gap between the abundance in Western stores and a dearth of goods in Soviet ones. Yet this was nothing compared with the shock that thousands of Soviet people experienced when they crossed Soviet borders and visited Western countries from early 1989 onwards— many of them for the first time. 

For first-time Soviet travelers to the West a visit to a supermarket produced the biggest effect. The contrast between half-empty, gloomy Soviet food stores and glittering Western palaces with an abundant selection of food was mind-boggling. Not a single Soviet visitor was prepared for the sight of pyramids of oranges, pineapples, tomatoes, bananas; endless varieties of fresh fish and meat, in lieu of a butcher cutting chunks from bluish hulks from a freezer; efficient cashiers with a smiling attitude, instead of rude saleswomen doling out greasy cans and jars to a long line of desperately hungry customers. And then actually to be allowed to touch, to smell, to savor! A severe aftershock awaited Soviet visitors upon their subsequent return to the Soviet Union, and to scenes of misery. This experience changed Soviet travelers forever. Western standards, unimaginable before, immediately became the new norm. Soviet realities, part of everyday habit, suddenly became “abnormal” and therefore revolting, unbearable . . . 

The most consequential eye-opening experience occurred to Boris Yeltsin. In June 1989, he asked the American ambassador Jack Matlock to help him visit the United States . . . The tour began in New York on 9 September 1989 and covered eleven cities in nine states. This visit was more intense than Khrushchev’s “discovery of America” in 1959. And it was to have even more impact on the fate of the Soviet Union. Available accounts of Yeltsin’s journey vary from stories of drinking bouts, scandals, and gaffes to descriptions of his eye-opening experiences.  All of them were true . . . The United States was the first country that Yeltsin had ever visited outside the Soviet Union on his own rather than as part of an official Soviet delegation. He was feted and dined by wealthy Americans, flown by private jets, and stayed in the houses of American millionaires. Although he expected the lifestyle of the super-rich to be a never-ending feast, the real shock for him was his impromptu visit to Randalls discount supermarket, on the way to Houston Airport. As a regional party secretary, Yeltsin had spent years battling with lack of food supplies in his Sverdlovsk region. His greatest achievement had been to establish a system of poultry farms near Sverdlovsk that supplemented the meagre diet of workers in the industrial plants and factories. Randalls supermarket amazed him. This was an average place where the poorest American could buy what even the top Soviet nomenklatura could not back home. In the sweltering Texan desert Yeltsin and his entourage entered an air-conditioned paradise. The aides saw Yeltsin brooding, as if he was thinking: “Does this cornucopia exist every day for everyone? Incredible!”

Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav Zubok is published by Yale University Press

As Angela Stent, author Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest, writes - "In this provocative, deeply-researched retelling of Mikhail Gorbachev’s turbulent six years in the Kremlin, Zubok challenges the conventional wisdom that the USSR was destined to collapse. He attributes the demise to Gorbachev’s ideological messianism, his failed reforms and repeated policy zig-zags. A must-read for those seeking to understand how a nuclear superpower could have imploded peacefully—and why today’s Russian leaders are so  determined to restore Russia’s great power status.”

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, Moses said:

"Anyone who doesn't regret the collapse of the USSR has no heart. And anyone who wants to restore it has no brain." - Putin in 2010 and late: he likes to repeat that. 

sounds catchy but I wonder  if he really means it.

[Moses]

3 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Once again you quote without any reference material!

it is easy to check: translate to Russian via google and then you will get a lot of references, including videos...

first time he said it at time of yearly "direct line with president" in December 2010 - mix of show and press conference: anyone may call to studio and ask him a question... typically it is like marathon - lasts 4+ hours... 

it was reply on question of Khirurg (en: Surgeon, nickname of quite famous here (then) rocker)

[unicorn]

6 hours ago, Moses said:

it is easy to check: translate to Russian via google and then you will get a lot of references, including videos...

As usual, you're shoveling the BS again. What he said is that this is a Russian proverb, not his belief. What he has voiced is the complete opposite of what you said: he rues the fall of the USSR.

https://www.npr.org/2016/12/25/506898839/25-years-after-collapse-of-soviet-union-many-russians-remain-nostalgic

"...Many people might recall that back in 2005, Vladimir Putin famously said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. In an interview with a German TV - a German journalist then asked him about that quote, and Putin said something very interesting. He said, we Russians say that if you don't regret the collapse, you don't have a heart. But if you do regret it, you don't have a brain. So he was really showing kind of the ambivalent feeling in the country. A poll conducted earlier this year by the Levada-Center - it's an independent polling agency - showed that 56 percent of Russians regret the collapse while 28 percent did not...". 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-rues-soviet-collapse-demise-historical-russia-2021-12-12/#:~:text="We turned into a completely,a setback for Russian power.

"President Vladimir Putin has lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago as the demise of what he called "historical Russia" and said the economic crisis that followed was so bad he was forced to moonlight as a taxi driver. Putin's comments, released by state TV on Sunday, are likely to further fuel speculation about his foreign policy intentions among critics, who accuse him of planning to recreate the Soviet Union and of contemplating an attack on Ukraine, a notion the Kremlin has dismissed as fear-mongering...".

Well, that "fear-mongering" turned out to be completely well-founded, as Putin was lying (again), as are you (again). 

[Suckrates]

Not to worry about future wars because we have Trump.   He bragged at the U.N. meeting this week in his speech that he has solved 7 wars since he took office,  although he got the country pairings WRONG, and also named countries that werent at war with each other, or at all !...   The man just likes to hear himself talk....

If anything, he is threatening the safety of the U.S. since our adversaries see how weak and mismanaged our country is now, and our vulnerable we would be to any attack..   Just think about it,   Gabbard in intelligence, LYING..... and Hegseth at the Pentagon, DRUNK....   Its a perfect storm for the U.S. to be attacked, and the buffoons in charge wouldnt have a clue what to do....  Oh wait, we have Trump,  our strongman who continues to be scammed by Bibi and Putin...

Thats why so many of our ally countries are telling us........

[PeterRS]

8 hours ago, Suckrates said:

If anything, he is threatening the safety of the U.S. since our adversaries see how weak and mismanaged our country is now, and our vulnerable we would be to any attack

And I am certain the one leader who is mildly smiling is Xi Jin-ping. Not that he would wish to see a war between China and the USA. But the weaker the USA becomes, the stronger is his country.

[Suckrates]

9 hours ago, PeterRS said:

And I am certain the one leader who is mildly smiling is Xi Jin-ping. Not that he would wish to see a war between China and the USA. But the weaker the USA becomes, the stronger is his country.

And Trump continues to talk to his "base" ONLY..... and tell them we are the strongest, Bestest country in the world,  and this is our Golden age,  prices are down, market is up,  blah, blah.   But if America is so strong and Golden, and everything is GREAT,  why the fuck does he NEED to deploy the military to the mostly BLUE states ?   I guess crime only finds its way into BLUE states ?   And CRIME now is the narrative he MUST promote,  but only as a pretext for sending in troops to states,  to make THAT normal, in prep for the midterms, where no doubt he intends to use these troops to FUCK with voting.  Vought and all these fuckers who wrote P2025 have a brain .....Trump does not,  but he is embracing the power grab of America THEY have orchestrated for him.  

WHAT Epstein files ?????

Do we really need to see them?.  We all already know Trump is IN them,  probably as a listed pedophile,  and maybe he even trafficked his OWN daughter, Ivanka, to Epstein ?  Maybe thats the other "wonderful secret" they share  ?   I dont think Trump has any love or compassion to want to protect anyone but HIMSELF ?    so whatever it says he DID in the files,  it must be a doozy to make him run so scared ?  

We have 3.5 more years of Trump,  By then, Trump will have erased our America and created his,  a weak country where everyone but him and his buddies are POOR, with a military of Steppford Wife zombies waiting for DADDY to give them orders.....  Xi is a patient, smart guy....  He's waiting to STRIKE when WE are at our lowest, most vulnerable point.   Or maybe Trump will decide to just SELL America to Xi for countless billions, and just retire to Mar-A-Lago where he can wait for death to call reading all the Classified docs he stole from the WH ?   

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

We have 3.5 more years of Trump,  By then, Trump will have erased our America and created his,  a weak country where everyone but him and his buddies are POOR, with a military of Steppford Wife zombies waiting for DADDY to give them orders.....  Xi is a patient, smart guy....  He's waiting to STRIKE when WE are at our lowest, most vulnerable point.   Or maybe Trump will decide to just SELL America to Xi for countless billions, and just retire to Mar-A-Lago where he can wait for death to call reading all the Classified docs he stole from the WH ?   

And I have to repeat what i have already written. Where on God's good earth is the Democratic Party? They are clearly a bunch of wimps. I have no doubt they may have some great leadership potential but every one of them seems terrified of being emasculated by Trump's barbs. Somene should be out front at least acting like a leader. If they wait even another few months, campaigning for 2026 and 2028 will be underway and they will be in danger of disappearing. A two-party state when one is clearly terrified is virtually a dictatorship. The USA needs a third political party - reform of the existing machinery of elections will clearly never happen without one.

[Suckrates]

33 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

And I have to repeat what i have already written. Where on God's good earth is the Democratic Party? They are clearly a bunch of wimps. I have no doubt they may have some great leadership potential but every one of them seems terrified of being emasculated by Trump's barbs. Somene should be out front at least acting like a leader. If they wait even another few months, campaigning for 2026 and 2028 will be underway and they will be in danger of disappearing. A two-party state when one is clearly terrified is virtually a dictatorship. The USA needs a third political party - reform of the existing machinery of elections will clearly never happen without one.

The problem is that the Dems are STILL a political party, and they are fighting an "extremist movement" NOT a party,  whose goal it is to SEIZE power by violence,  in addition to being the party "minority" with little power,  so basically they KNOW they are FUCKED,  no matter what bullshit Hakeem robotically spews.   Hakeem stupidly believes by telling Trump what he can and cannot constitutionally do will STOP him.  And he falsely believes HE is showing the public he is STRONG, and that they buy his bravado.  WRONG !  Trump & Co do not give a fuck about the constitution and rules of law,  They trampled and discarded those months ago.  The Dems ARE afraid, and they know Trump can crush them too,  and he is off to a great start.  

If anything, it will be PEOPLE that rise up,  not the Dems...  but after electing Trump twice, I have little faith in the PEOPLE.    

[unicorn]

It was a major mistake to provoke NATO. Will Ukraine be getting tomahawk missiles? 

 

[unicorn]

I don't know what Estonia's air force can do, but Poland has made it clear it will shoot down any jets which violate its airspace...

[PeterRS]

9 hours ago, Suckrates said:

The problem is that the Dems are STILL a political party, and they are fighting an "extremist movement" NOT a party,  whose goal it is to SEIZE power by violence,  in addition to being the party "minority" with little power,  so basically they KNOW they are FUCKED,  no matter what bullshit Hakeem robotically spews.

As I stated, where is the Democratic Party? Cowering out of fear! You add that it is the people who will rise up - but they too are afraid and you have little faith in them. So it seems you are ready and willing for the USA to become a virtual dictatorship. If the Democratic Party is such a bunch of wimps (and I know some certainly aren't) then the 75,017,613 million people who voted for them are now being sold down the river. Trump and his MAGA idiots are certainly a massive problem. But every political party needs strong leadership, and the Dems have abandoned its base by not providing anything like effective leadership.