stevenkesslar

Funny you should mention platforms at conventions. One of the turning points of when the Republican Party became a cult is in 2020 when it subordinated all ideas and policies to one God that is to be worshipped: Donald Trump. Who needs a platform to run on, when you have a God? Why Republicans didn’t write a platform for their convention this year The party’s true priority is supporting Donald Trump. The party has only one true God, The Almighty: Donald Trump. He can rape, he can lie, he can try to steal elections, he can bow down to Putin. There is no policy debate. There is no disagreement, or you will be banished like Liz Cheney. There can only be one true God, most holy, most high, the perfect dictator, perfect forever. Thank you God, Donald Trump, Most Holy.

You are always so honest. You don't care about immigrants who die building the country. Your death cult only wants to focus on murder propaganda. "Here's one woman who died! Here's one woman who died! It's Joe Biden's fault." The Trump crime cult doesn't care that murder is down over 10 % last year. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about immigrants who build America. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about facts.

Duh! Me! I'm LMAO. First, the basic and core stupidity here is that Trump is gonna lose. You don't believe a guy who has been right on every POTUS race since 1984. Who Trump personally congratulated. That's just very stupid. Lichtman is clear about the things that could change that would hurt Biden. Losing Ukraine is probably #1 on the list. The criminal rapist you support knows this. He'd rather support genocide and weaken the US and NATO than allow Biden and the US to help Ukraine. It's weak, and sick. So I'll laugh my ass off when he loses. Second, you don't understand or believe short sellers. This puppy is being set up for a fall. If you want to see how it works, check out SOXL. Went up 15x during the COVID sugar high, then down 90 % in 2022, and is now up about 7x off its Fall 2022 low. It will probably peak about 10x above what it was worth in Fall 2022, I'm guessing. That is how short sellers work. DJT is small ball in this game. I tell you this in the hope that you will get out before you lose at musical chairs, like much of the cult will. Third, as I said above, I doubt that Leticia James seizing Trump's assets would create a backlash that would help Trump win. About 54 % of America consistently views DJT as a lying criminal rapist who deserves punishment. And anyone who feels Trump is above the law probably ain't gonna change their mind, anyway. But I am delighted that the world now knows DJT has plenty of money - out of the pockets of the cult - to pay the woman he raped and any and all other judgments. Fourth, the real beauty is that if Trump needs the money, he'll have to get his nepo board to change the rules so he can sell soon, instead of waiting six months. By which time the short sellers will most likely shred DJT, anyway. Thus rapist criminal Trump will legally undermine the stock, creating the very conditions the short sellers are waiting for. And raping his loyal followers, like he does every time. This you can't blame it on Leticia James, the Deep State, or the Satanic child blood drinkers. The stupidity is brilliant! Bravo, and thanks.

Well, at least Trump has a loyal cult. And good spelling skills.

Genocide Fan # 2 wants to prove his genocide-diseased mind can not function, I guess. Even if we go way way way deep into the rabbit holes of unproven conspiracy theories, what the diseased brain of Genocide Man # 2 is saying is that any US politician that "does not serve the ruling political families of the United States" will be taken out by Soviet fighters, or the Russian mafia. Huh? When did the Soviet Union and Russian mafia start serving the interests of "the ruling political families of the United States"? The shit filling the brain of Genocide Fan # 2 is so thick that he can't form coherent thoughts. He's for genocide, he's for death, he's for Putin, and his brain is diseased with shit. This makes no fucking sense. Why would Soviet fighters and the Russian mafia kill Senator Paul Wellstone, Rep. Sonny Bono, or Rep. McDonald? Rep. McDonald was killed by Soviet fighters when the Korean plane he was flying on entered Soviet air space. So what shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 wants to believe after his genocide indoctrination is that back in 1983 the Soviet Union killed a U.S. Congressman on behalf of the ruling families of the United States because that Congressman wanted to investigate the Trilateral Commission. It makes no fucking sense. But all Genocide Fan # 2 wants to do is repeat completely illogical bullshit in defense of genocide. What a sick fuck. This one is a whopper. First, you have to believe that people who know how to ski well never die in ski accidents. His wife said the cause of death is the 15 to 20 pain killers he took a day that she thinks messed with his judgment. Shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 apparently believes good skiers never have accidents. Then you have to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono to cover up drug trafficking by the CIA. Huh? How much sense does that make, other than to our genocidal sick fuck? The cop who found Bono dead after he hit a tree has said this is another piece of bullshit cooked up on the internet. But the internet version of the murder theory is that Russian drug traffickers killed Bono because he was co-sponsor of the Methamphetamine Elimination Act of 1997, which did crack down of Russian drug traffickers. Who, by the way, are tied to Genocide Man. Even if you want to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono, it wouldn't be to cover up for CIA drug trafficking. This is what happens to a diseased brain when it is trained by Genocide Man to believe any bullshit and evil in the defense of genocide and death. Paul was my college professor and mentor as a community organizer, when I was a student at Carleton and before a bunch of my Carleton friends ran the campaign that shockingly got him elected to the US Senate. Genocide Fan # 2 again displays he knows a lot about genocide and death, but nothing about democracy. The majority of Democrats in the House and Senate opposed the Iraq War. They were not all killed. Genocide Fan # 2 apparently thinks all politicians who die in small plane crashes in bad weather are targets of political assassinations. Maybe this is because Genocide Man has proven he is good at killing people flying in planes, which he shoots out of the sky. Genocide Fan # 2 of course has no idea in his sick brain what it takes to run a David v. Goliath grassroots campaign for the US Senate. Because people like Paul who do that in Genocide World are killed, like Navalny. Genocide Fan # 2 just keeps demonstrating he is a brain-diseased sick fuck who defends genocide and death. But in his defense, he's just doing what Genocide Man does. Putin spent a few days trying to make the ridiculous argument that Ukraine ordered Isis-k terrorists to kill Russians, before he finally admitted the truth Some genocidal lies are so stupid that not even Genocide Man can get away with them.

de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Alexei Navalny Age: 47 Date of Death: February 16, 2024 Cause of Death: Alexei Navalny died in prison. The Russian prison service reported that he felt unwell after a walk and lost consciousness. Biography: Alexei Navalny was a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin. He gained global attention in 2020 when he survived a poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok. Navalny willingly returned to Russia from Germany in 2021, where he had received treatment for the previous poisoning. Upon his return, he was promptly arrested. Navalny was known for exposing corruption, investigating Putin's inner circle, and leading anti-Kremlin opposition movements. His death is likely to be seen by fellow opposition members as a political assassination attributable to Putin, but is as yet unexplained. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Mikhail Lesin Age: 57 Date of Death: November 5, 2015 Cause of Death: Mikhail Lesin was a former Russian press minister and media executive. He fell out of favor with Putin and faced scrutiny for his wealth. Lesin was found dead in a Washington, D.C. hotel room. The official cause of death was ruled as accidental blunt force injuries, but questions persist about the circumstances. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Nemtsov Age: 55 Date of Death: February 27, 2015 Cause of Death: Boris Nemtsov was shot dead on a bridge near the Kremlin. His murder remains unsolved, but many believe it was politically motivated. Nemtsov was a vocal critic of Putin's government, advocating for democracy, human rights, and transparency. He served as a deputy prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin and later became a prominent opposition figure. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Berezovsky Age: 67 Date of Death: March 23, 2013 Cause of Death: Boris Berezovsky was a wealthy businessman, oligarch, and former ally of Putin. However, he became a vocal critic and fled to the U.K. Berezovsky was found dead in his home in Berkshire, England. The official cause of death was ruled as suicide, but suspicions remain due to his high-profile opposition activities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Sergei Magnitsky Age: 37 Date of Death: November 16, 2009 Cause of Death: Sergei Magnitsky was a lawyer and auditor who exposed a massive tax fraud scheme involving Russian officials. He was arrested, imprisoned, and denied medical treatment. Magnitsky died in custody following severe beatings and medical neglect. His death led to the passing of the Magnitsky Act in the United States, which sanctions Russian officials involved in human rights abuses and corruption. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Stanislav Markelov Age: 34 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Stanislav Markelov was a human rights lawyer and journalist. He was assassinated in Moscow by a gunman who also killed journalist Anastasia Baburova. Markelov had represented victims of human rights abuses and criticized the Russian government's actions in Chechnya. His death raised concerns about the safety of those opposing the regime. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Anastasia Baburova Age: 25 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Anastasia Baburova, a journalist and activist, was shot dead alongside human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov in Moscow. She had reported on neo-Nazi groups and political violence. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is believed to be connected to her activism. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Natalia Estemirova Age: 50 Date of Death: July 15, 2009 Cause of Death: Natalia Estemirova, a human rights activist and journalist, was abducted in Grozny, Chechnya, and found dead later that day. She had documented human rights violations in Chechnya and criticized the government. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is widely believed to be connected to her activism and criticism of the Chechen authorities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Anna Politkovskaya Age: 48 Date of Death: October 7, 2006 Cause of Death: Anna Politkovskaya, an investigative journalist, was shot dead in her apartment building in Moscow. She had reported extensively on human rights abuses, corruption, and the war in Chechnya. Her work was critical of Putin's government, and her murder sparked international outrage. Despite investigations, the masterminds behind her killing have not been brought to justice. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Yuri Shchekochikhin Age: 53 Date of Death: July 3, 2003 Cause of Death: Yuri Shchekochikhin was a journalist, writer, and member of the Russian State Duma. He investigated corruption, organized crime, and human rights abuses. Shchekochikhin suddenly fell ill and died from an unknown cause. Some suspect poisoning, but the circumstances remain unclear.

You are definitely on to something. Trump makes everything interesting. Why not stock analysis, which is totally boring? Instead of 30 day and 60 day moving averages, we could track DJT with 30 and 60 day moving indictments. My guess is the way it works is the more new indictments, the more DJT pops. Since the cult will visit the site heavily to find out why Trump is innocent and persecuted, as always. And to donate money, of course. Then instead of relative strength index, we could have relative scam index. If he gets elected, that could explode. I mean, in the traditional sense of RSI 30 means oversold. I think Trump could easily get well over 30 scams a month going to fleece the cult. Instead of oversold, we just call it overscammed. I don't think we'll ever have to worry about being underscammed with this crowd. They'll always donate money, of course. This is off to a great start. DJT opened at $70.55, peaked at $79.38, and closed just under $58. So everybody who bought today lost, except for Donald J. Trump. How much more perfect could a stock named after Donald J. Trump be?

You know there's gonna be a sequel, of course. There's a lot of money to be made in sequels. If he wins, I'm guessing everyone can upgrade to the King Donald Version for 50 % off. The new and improved version won't require the U.S. Constitution or Bill Of Rights, of course.

Btw, I do have one reason to be happy about this. And I know, as OP, you really are hoping to keep this thread narrowly focused on what a genius Trump is to use Genocide Money to build a company that he can then get his cult to buy overpriced shares of. I mean, the guy has a knack for that sort of thing, for sure. But there has been speculation by smart guys like Frank Luntz that if Leticia James starts seizing Trump Tower or his real estate since he can't pay up, that could create a backlash and sympathy for out poor little rich rapist and election denier. So if you wanna buy a speculative meme stock so Trump has money to pay Leticia James and E Jean Carroll and God knows who else in the future so his properties don't have to be seized, you are doing Democrats like me a service. Thank you, Sir. I deeply appreciate it. That said, this concern about backlash is probably a bit far fetched. In the Harvard/Harris polls you like to cite, when asked about the $454M bond, 54 % of voters - including 20 % of Republicans - say the size of the verdict is fair. That's more than the 51 % who say Trump is a threat to democracy. As I argued in another post, it's pretty clear that just like in 2016 and 2020 Trump is a hard NO for a little bit more than half the country. Even so, I wouldn't want people feeling sorry for out poor little rich rapist for having his assets seized. I mean, grabbing pussy is fine. But having assets seized is pretty cruel, when ya think about it. This is of course good news for E. Jean Carroll! If you want to give Trump the money to pay her, that's really swell of you. Trump is always the best when it comes to raping people, in all sorts of ways.

Nah. The country will be "better" when Lichtman turns out to be right, for the eleventh time in a row, and we send Donald J. Scam packing. But you are more than welcome to donate to him in his retirement. I'm sure he'll figure out a way to need your money. Somehow. I'm up about 150 % on SOXL and FNGU since last Fall. My nephew, who is nerdy smart, is now a millionaire thanks to the shares he bought in Fall 2022 and just kept buying. He's up like 500 %. So I'm fine. But thanks for your concern. Good luck on the investing. Most of my net worth is in real estate. For some strange reason, I don't go bankrupt. Or get near bankrupt again, and decide to "share the wealth" with genocidal Russian leaders with rich pals who bail me out, with strings always attached. I guess I'm just weird that way. I'd be careful, though. From 1996 to 2000 I organized two statewide coalitions in Oregon that stopped Enron from fucking up the state the way they did California. My job was to convince regulators and politicians it was a scam. We stopped Enron, completely, and won everything we wanted. So I know a little bit about scammers. You've just got to be careful out there, buddy. Of course, the whole thing with Enron was to make the corruption so complicated no one could understand it. DJT is not that smart. It's a meme stock. Not well put together, just like his crappy stuff made in China. And he knew if he could use Genocide Money to get it listed his cult would buy, buy, buy. It's a simple concept. Pyramid scheme sort of thing. Might not make a good long term investment. But enjoy the ride.

How much of the money does Genocide Man get? And what strings were attached to Trump when Genocide Man's cronies bailed the almost bankrupt company out? How Russian Money Helped Save Trump’s Business After his financial disasters two decades ago, no U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in. Russian Made Millions On Insider Trading Tied To Trump media Court filings accuse the Miami-based owner of a porn-friendly bank of insider trades in the SPAC merging with Truth Social's parent company.

In Genocide World, there is a brain impairment that is common, and intentional. The idea of "democracy" or "freedom to protest" is systematically discouraged, deterred, poisoned, jailed, or assassinated. Sometimes "freedom to protest" ends up simply falling out of a window, or with a bullet in its head. Genocide Fan # 2 suffers from this malady. He does not understand that in most countries, protesting the United States or Genocide World does not result in jail, poisoning, or assassination. Typical protest in the United States against Iraq War: Typical protest in Germany against Genocide Man's assassination of opposition leaders: Typical funeral in Genocide World. This brain impairment in Genocide Man #2 and others is unfortunate, but incurable. The genocide-impaired brain does not function the same. A typical symptom is unquestioning support for genocide and mass murder. In fact, in Genocide World the normal brain that functions freely in a democratic and open society is considered an illness. A typical treatment is two bullets in the head, every four to eight hours.

Genocide Fan #2 is funny. He said he doesn't negotiate with terrorists like me. And he said he will no longer address me. I'm fine with him saying whatever he wants about me. Pretty much everything he posts underscores that he wants more genocide, and more death. This is why Genocide World is fucked, and the horror only gets worse. It's not that I want Russia to experience deepening horror. I don't. It's just that it so obvious that so many people are going to have to die for Genocide Man to give up. Because he'll never give up. So millions of Russians, especially ethnic minorities, will need to be processed into fertilizer by Genocide Man. Ian Bremmer made an interesting comment recently about why many innocent Russians will be slaughtered for years and maybe decades to come. Simply because they live in Genocide World and are ruled by Genocide Man. The whole 90 minute interview on geopolitics is really interesting. But he said this at 1:12:00, regarding what happens EVEN IF UKRAINE WINS. I do, too. Bremer is right. I think Ukrainians hate Russians so deeply that they will not want to make peace. It's a problem. The US might shift toward conditioning future aid on some effort to make peace, regardless of who is winning. But I don't think Bremer is a sadist. Nor am I. I think he is just a realist, being honest about what genocide and mass murder does to people. Absent a solution, it is why of course Palestinians will want to kill Jews. Simply because they are Jews. And Ukrainians will kill Russians, just because they are the people that started the genocide. As Hillary said, you reap what you sow. Russians are sowing genocide. What do they expect? If Ukraine does win, whatever "win" means, I think it reduces the likelihood that Bremer is right. The government of Ukraine, as Bremmer says in the interview, will take the "win" - even if they have to de facto concede some of the land Putin took - and turn West and join NATO and the EU. The children Genocide Man stole and the Ukrainians forced to live in Genocide World against their will will be worse off. But the rest of Ukraine will rebuild, with NATO security, and be better off. But even then they will hate Russians and want to kill them. To the degree that Genocide Man "wins", meaning he occupies large chunks of Ukraine for years like in Afghanistan, that it is a guarantee that Bremer is right. And the only good Russian is one that is dead. Not only Russians in Ukraine. Also Russians in Russia. The terrorism at the concert hall is small ball. Ukraine will have every reason to kill as many Russians as they can is as many horrific ways as they can. I'm not a psychologist. But I think Genocide Fans #1 and #2 do exhibit a sickness or weakness in the genocide-wired brain. I think they actually believe what Genocide Man has told them. They have said that it will be easier to beat Ukraine because they are right next door, on flat land, and we have hospitals nearby. It's hard for me to believe the genocide-wired brain can actually be this weak and defective. That's like saying Israel is safer because Hamas lives right next door, and it is easy for them to get to us. Oct. 7th sure proved that theory wrong. Russian missiles killing mothers and babies in Ukrainian hospitals in Mariupol sure disproved the idea that Russia is better off having hospitals nearby. I think Iraq, and the genocide the US started there, is a good analogy. We opened Pandora's box, and sectarian and ethnic and terrorist genocides of all kinds flew out. If that were happening in every neighborhood of America, they would have happily killed as many Americans as they could. Instead, the radicalized people had to work very hard to pull off one 9/11, which they have failed to repeat since. The good news for the US is it was NOT happening right next door. So if Russians think somehow it is a good thing to radicalize an entire nation right next door, so they want to kill all of you, there is really something sick and defective about what Genocide Man has done to the brains of Russians who think this way. I don't blame Genocide Fans #1 and #2 for not wanting to believe they are fucked, for decades to come, ESPECIALLY if things go relatively well for Putin. Who really wants to be doomed?

Thank you, @EmmetK. I appreciate your consistency in letting us know you were abused by facts. So you will never tolerate them. It's just a fact that Lichtman has been right every time since 1984. But facts no doubt abused you. So you abuse facts. You are so deeply committed to abusing facts that, in this case, even the fact that your cult leader, Trump, personally congratulated Lichtman for being right in 2016 can not penetrate the cult brain. This seems like a simple enough fact. But for some strange reason the cult brain repels it, instantly. I guess the cult leader can be smart enough to acknowledge some facts. But the inferior cult brain of his followers can't, perhaps. Or maybe you were just uniquely abused by facts. Of course, when Lichtman turns out to be right again, you will have to deny that Biden won, and treat him like he is not a legitimate President. So maybe you are just preparing for that. Hey! Here's a thought. Maybe this next time if there is a Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating you can get in on that, too. It's patriotic to abuse facts, and abuse cops, too! Were you raped by facts, @EmmetK? Or did facts beat you to near death, like the good Trump folk did to the cops at the Capitol? Because Morning Consult's new poll has Biden +1, and the Harvard/Harris poll has Trump +2. So they are both tied, basically. I know you deeply want to deny the fact that Kennedy will not get 14 % of the vote, and almost all Stein and West supporters say they may change their mind. Which is why Harvard/Harris has Trump +5 in a five way race. Just like Lichtman has been right every time, which is a fact the cult brain must repel, the cult brain must also repel the fact that these poll numbers for third party candidates in March always go down by 50 % or more. Always. And in 2024 most of that vote goes back to Biden, as the two way race in Penn's polls show. But since the cult brain has to deny incredibly consistent sets of facts, I know your brain has to repel this instantly. Mark Penn's Harvard/Harris polls always lean a bit more Trumpy/conservative. So him saying Trump is up by +2 in a two way race ain't bad at this point, when polls don't tell us much, anyway. Here's is another fact in Penn's report your cult brain has to instantly repel, @EmmetK: TRUMP MAINTAINS HIS LEAD OVER BIDEN, BUT BY A SLIMMER MARGIN THIS MONTH As Penn's poll states, it went from +6 Trump in Feb. to + 2 Trump in March in a two way race. That's a big move. And I know, @EmmetK. This feels like rape, doesn't it? I am sorry that facts hurt so bad. I hope your cult brain instantly repelled this fact, so as not to cause you pain. I've said repeatedly that while the primary was on, people were mostly focused on what they don't like about Biden. What they mostly heard about Trump is "He's winning. He's kicking ass. He's strong." Now that the primary is essentially over, and it is becoming a choice between Trump and Biden, I said things would change. My sense is they are beginning to. But it is too early to tell. Certainly Penn saying the polls that were close in Feb. are now even closer is not bad news for Biden. Here's another fact the cult brain must instantly repel. This election, FOR A FACT, will be decided by double haters, who really don't want either Trump or Biden. The cult brain can not accept the fact that a majority of voters don't like Trump, and say he's too old and too volatile and too criminal. So the thing to pay attention to is which of these pieces of shit do the double haters hate most. Here's the thing I overweight when I read Penn's polls. (I know, @EmmetK. You never read the content or analyze it. It is too much for the cult brain to handle.) 1. 48 % of voters say their personal economic situation is excellent or good. Since we live in a time when at least 40 % of voters are ideologically committed to the notion that their life and finances have to be horrible since Biden is President, what is important is that number gets to be in the mid-50's. It is headed in that direction as the stock market rises and inflation subsides. I think Biden's biggest problem with young voters is high rents, and high mortgage interest rates. When the Fed starts to lower rates, which they will, that will help. 2. 49 % of Independents say their personal financial situation is getting worse under Biden. That number will probably be a little lower in November, unless the AWOL recession suddenly appears. 47 % of Independents say Biden is getting worse as President. Vast majorities of Independents think BOTH Biden and Trump are too old to be POTUS. So that doesn't count. So my point is this. Among double haters, what is it that actually makes Biden the uniquely worse piece of shit? And how many voters feel that way? I think if you think Biden is making your personal financial situation worse, and he is getting worse as President, that is a hard NO. Saying Biden is getting worse is a clear measure of people who simply can't handle his visible aging, or think he is whacko. So slightly less than half of Independents will find it very hard to vote for Biden. That's my read. 3. 52 % of Independents say "Trump's legal cases make it impossible for him to be a viable candidate for President". 58 % of Independents say "he has committed crimes for which he should be convicted". 54 % of Independents say that Trump is "a threat democracy". So among Independents, what is it that makes Trump the uniquely worse piece of shit, and how many voters feel that way? What makes Trump the worse piece of shit is his criminality and contempt for democracy. These poll results, which are very consistent among Penn's polls and other polls. suggest that for a bit over half of Independents Trump is a hard NO. In two national elections, Trump has never won more than 47 % of the vote. So having a five way race will help Trump, by lowering the bar. But if Independents break to Biden, or even split 50/50, Biden probably wins. In 2020, Biden got 51 % of the vote. These numbers suggest that the underlying trend is a little more than half of Independent voters see Trump as a hard NO, and a little less than half of Independents see Biden as a hard NO. The more they focus on choosing between which of these two pieces of shit - one of whom will win - the more these hard NOs will kick in. For some people that won't happen until they vote. 4. In one of my verbose posts weeks ago I suggested that the worst thing in Penn's poll for Trump is that 57 % of people say they approve of how he did as President. That's fantasy. Because there was not one day of his Presidency when 50 % of people actually approved of Trump. In fact, the fantasy has begun to wear off already. In Feb. 57 % of voters said they approved of Trump's Presidency. Now it is down to 55 %. That right there helps to explain why his lead over Biden is shrinking. I think this fantasy - that people approved of Trump as President - only goes down from here. For two reasons. First, Democrats will spend a fortune reminding people why they disapproved of Trump's Presidency, while it was actually happening. Second, and more important, when the campaign gets going Trump will remind people of the reasons they fired him. That may already be starting to happen, as well. But it's early days. I think this is a bit like wanting to remember the nice things about your ex. But that doesn't mean you want to get back together with them. Again, Penn's polls tend to be more favorable to Trump than the RCP average. So if this is what the slightly pro-Trump polls are telling us, it's not good news for Trump.

Genocide Fan #2 so deeply supports Genocide Man and has so much blood spurting from his eyes and ears that he actually seems incapable of understanding the very simple words coming out of Hillary Clinton's mouth. So let's try to make this simple for Genocide Fan #2. Although support for genocide probably has deeply fucked up his brain. Not to mention his capacity for empathy. The main point Clinton made is that US support for what became the Taliban led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. From a realist perspective it was, to quote her, "a good investment". One could debate how much of a role Afghanistan played. I'd argue the collapse of the USSR had a lot more to do with the collapse of the Soviet economy. In part based on the fact that they just couldn't keep up with the US and NATO in building a military/industrial complex. Being smaller and having a shittier, less innovative economy does matter. But however you view it, the key point is that the Soviet Union did collapse. So the parallel is incredibly clear. And even a guy who has a deep abiding tolerance for genocide should be able to see it. Defending Ukraine is "a good investment". It may well result in the eventual collapse of the Russian Federation as well. If I had to bet on that, I wouldn't. But if Genocide Man said I had to bet or I would be sent off to become fertilizer, I would bet on the eventual collapse of the Russian Federation. Years from now, after old and weak Genocide Man finally dies. I wouldn't wish for that, for all kinds of reasons from A to Z. Starting with atomic bombs. But the fact that it happened to a much stronger Soviet Union suggests it could also happen to a weaker Russian Federation. For some strange reason, millions of people just don't like being turned into fertilizer. Who knew? It's a reason to hope maybe Russia and NATO could come to terms. But name the country in Europe that trusts Genocide Man now more than they did two years ago? The second thing Clinton said is that you reap what you sow. So in funding the Taliban the US unwittingly set itself up for 9/11. And a twenty year quagmire in at least two nations we occupied: Afghanistan, and Iraq. If you want to stretch the point, you could add Hillary's own brilliant idea of adding Libya to that list. So, yeah. The US got an "F" as a unipolar power. It goes to the point Mearsheimer makes: military power is a blunt force. It is better at wrecking things than building or sustaining them. Even if you are the US, or USSR. So Genocide Man, a weak mass murderer from a weak country, has zero chance. Let's apply the principle to today, in Ukraine. The US will reap what we sow. So what we are sowing in Ukraine is like what we sowed with the Taliban, right? We want theocracy. We want misogyny. We want a society where male soldiers rape and shoot girls who don't submit in every way. Nah, not really. What the US and Europe and allies all over the world are actually sowing, this time, is a capitalist democracy. We are defending a sovereign nation that wants help, badly. Europe in particular is sheltering their women and children so Genocide Man and his soldiers can't murder, torture, or rape them before they are processed into fertilizer. So it is just a completely different thing. We are sowing the principle of strong alliances in the defense of sovereignty. What are we reaping? NATO is stronger and more unified than it has been in half a century. Ukraine can't wait to join NATO and the EU. Even if I assume Russia can grow as fast as the US, which has a GDP over ten times larger, that means every year the US economy grows ten times as much as Genocide World, in absolute terms. And Russia can only do that by growing a genocide machine that turns Russians into fertilizer. This is why and how the US beat the Soviet Union, which was bigger and more powerful. Genocide Man must suck at math. A racist nation that turns ethnic minorities into fertilizer to defend old kleptocrats like Genocide Man is asking for trouble. Let's see what Genocide World reaps in a decade. If what the US and allies all over the world reap from Ukraine is defense of a multipolar world order based on democracy, capitalism, and sovereignty, I'm good with that. I think China is going to be the one that eventually helps control Genocide Man. Even though it may take years. Because their economic self-interest lies with pretty much every economic powerhouse in the world not named Russia. Which is not an economic powerhouse, anyway. This is why liberals who opposed VietNam, opposed Iraq, and were ambivalent about Afghanistan (which started because we were defending ourselves from the worst terrorist attack in US history) feel very differently about Ukraine. Oh. And I voted for Hillary Clinton.