stevenkesslar

Funny you should mention platforms at conventions. One of the turning points of when the Republican Party became a cult is in 2020 when it subordinated all ideas and policies to one God that is to be worshipped: Donald Trump. Who needs a platform to run on, when you have a God? Why Republicans didn’t write a platform for their convention this year The party’s true priority is supporting Donald Trump. The party has only one true God, The Almighty: Donald Trump. He can rape, he can lie, he can try to steal elections, he can bow down to Putin. There is no policy debate. There is no disagreement, or you will be banished like Liz Cheney. There can only be one true God, most holy, most high, the perfect dictator, perfect forever. Thank you God, Donald Trump, Most Holy.

You are always so honest. You don't care about immigrants who die building the country. Your death cult only wants to focus on murder propaganda. "Here's one woman who died! Here's one woman who died! It's Joe Biden's fault." The Trump crime cult doesn't care that murder is down over 10 % last year. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about immigrants who build America. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about facts.

Duh! Me! I'm LMAO. First, the basic and core stupidity here is that Trump is gonna lose. You don't believe a guy who has been right on every POTUS race since 1984. Who Trump personally congratulated. That's just very stupid. Lichtman is clear about the things that could change that would hurt Biden. Losing Ukraine is probably #1 on the list. The criminal rapist you support knows this. He'd rather support genocide and weaken the US and NATO than allow Biden and the US to help Ukraine. It's weak, and sick. So I'll laugh my ass off when he loses. Second, you don't understand or believe short sellers. This puppy is being set up for a fall. If you want to see how it works, check out SOXL. Went up 15x during the COVID sugar high, then down 90 % in 2022, and is now up about 7x off its Fall 2022 low. It will probably peak about 10x above what it was worth in Fall 2022, I'm guessing. That is how short sellers work. DJT is small ball in this game. I tell you this in the hope that you will get out before you lose at musical chairs, like much of the cult will. Third, as I said above, I doubt that Leticia James seizing Trump's assets would create a backlash that would help Trump win. About 54 % of America consistently views DJT as a lying criminal rapist who deserves punishment. And anyone who feels Trump is above the law probably ain't gonna change their mind, anyway. But I am delighted that the world now knows DJT has plenty of money - out of the pockets of the cult - to pay the woman he raped and any and all other judgments. Fourth, the real beauty is that if Trump needs the money, he'll have to get his nepo board to change the rules so he can sell soon, instead of waiting six months. By which time the short sellers will most likely shred DJT, anyway. Thus rapist criminal Trump will legally undermine the stock, creating the very conditions the short sellers are waiting for. And raping his loyal followers, like he does every time. This you can't blame it on Leticia James, the Deep State, or the Satanic child blood drinkers. The stupidity is brilliant! Bravo, and thanks.

Well, at least Trump has a loyal cult. And good spelling skills.

Genocide Fan # 2 wants to prove his genocide-diseased mind can not function, I guess. Even if we go way way way deep into the rabbit holes of unproven conspiracy theories, what the diseased brain of Genocide Man # 2 is saying is that any US politician that "does not serve the ruling political families of the United States" will be taken out by Soviet fighters, or the Russian mafia. Huh? When did the Soviet Union and Russian mafia start serving the interests of "the ruling political families of the United States"? The shit filling the brain of Genocide Fan # 2 is so thick that he can't form coherent thoughts. He's for genocide, he's for death, he's for Putin, and his brain is diseased with shit. This makes no fucking sense. Why would Soviet fighters and the Russian mafia kill Senator Paul Wellstone, Rep. Sonny Bono, or Rep. McDonald? Rep. McDonald was killed by Soviet fighters when the Korean plane he was flying on entered Soviet air space. So what shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 wants to believe after his genocide indoctrination is that back in 1983 the Soviet Union killed a U.S. Congressman on behalf of the ruling families of the United States because that Congressman wanted to investigate the Trilateral Commission. It makes no fucking sense. But all Genocide Fan # 2 wants to do is repeat completely illogical bullshit in defense of genocide. What a sick fuck. This one is a whopper. First, you have to believe that people who know how to ski well never die in ski accidents. His wife said the cause of death is the 15 to 20 pain killers he took a day that she thinks messed with his judgment. Shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 apparently believes good skiers never have accidents. Then you have to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono to cover up drug trafficking by the CIA. Huh? How much sense does that make, other than to our genocidal sick fuck? The cop who found Bono dead after he hit a tree has said this is another piece of bullshit cooked up on the internet. But the internet version of the murder theory is that Russian drug traffickers killed Bono because he was co-sponsor of the Methamphetamine Elimination Act of 1997, which did crack down of Russian drug traffickers. Who, by the way, are tied to Genocide Man. Even if you want to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono, it wouldn't be to cover up for CIA drug trafficking. This is what happens to a diseased brain when it is trained by Genocide Man to believe any bullshit and evil in the defense of genocide and death. Paul was my college professor and mentor as a community organizer, when I was a student at Carleton and before a bunch of my Carleton friends ran the campaign that shockingly got him elected to the US Senate. Genocide Fan # 2 again displays he knows a lot about genocide and death, but nothing about democracy. The majority of Democrats in the House and Senate opposed the Iraq War. They were not all killed. Genocide Fan # 2 apparently thinks all politicians who die in small plane crashes in bad weather are targets of political assassinations. Maybe this is because Genocide Man has proven he is good at killing people flying in planes, which he shoots out of the sky. Genocide Fan # 2 of course has no idea in his sick brain what it takes to run a David v. Goliath grassroots campaign for the US Senate. Because people like Paul who do that in Genocide World are killed, like Navalny. Genocide Fan # 2 just keeps demonstrating he is a brain-diseased sick fuck who defends genocide and death. But in his defense, he's just doing what Genocide Man does. Putin spent a few days trying to make the ridiculous argument that Ukraine ordered Isis-k terrorists to kill Russians, before he finally admitted the truth Some genocidal lies are so stupid that not even Genocide Man can get away with them.

de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Alexei Navalny Age: 47 Date of Death: February 16, 2024 Cause of Death: Alexei Navalny died in prison. The Russian prison service reported that he felt unwell after a walk and lost consciousness. Biography: Alexei Navalny was a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin. He gained global attention in 2020 when he survived a poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok. Navalny willingly returned to Russia from Germany in 2021, where he had received treatment for the previous poisoning. Upon his return, he was promptly arrested. Navalny was known for exposing corruption, investigating Putin's inner circle, and leading anti-Kremlin opposition movements. His death is likely to be seen by fellow opposition members as a political assassination attributable to Putin, but is as yet unexplained. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Mikhail Lesin Age: 57 Date of Death: November 5, 2015 Cause of Death: Mikhail Lesin was a former Russian press minister and media executive. He fell out of favor with Putin and faced scrutiny for his wealth. Lesin was found dead in a Washington, D.C. hotel room. The official cause of death was ruled as accidental blunt force injuries, but questions persist about the circumstances. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Nemtsov Age: 55 Date of Death: February 27, 2015 Cause of Death: Boris Nemtsov was shot dead on a bridge near the Kremlin. His murder remains unsolved, but many believe it was politically motivated. Nemtsov was a vocal critic of Putin's government, advocating for democracy, human rights, and transparency. He served as a deputy prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin and later became a prominent opposition figure. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Berezovsky Age: 67 Date of Death: March 23, 2013 Cause of Death: Boris Berezovsky was a wealthy businessman, oligarch, and former ally of Putin. However, he became a vocal critic and fled to the U.K. Berezovsky was found dead in his home in Berkshire, England. The official cause of death was ruled as suicide, but suspicions remain due to his high-profile opposition activities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Sergei Magnitsky Age: 37 Date of Death: November 16, 2009 Cause of Death: Sergei Magnitsky was a lawyer and auditor who exposed a massive tax fraud scheme involving Russian officials. He was arrested, imprisoned, and denied medical treatment. Magnitsky died in custody following severe beatings and medical neglect. His death led to the passing of the Magnitsky Act in the United States, which sanctions Russian officials involved in human rights abuses and corruption. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Stanislav Markelov Age: 34 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Stanislav Markelov was a human rights lawyer and journalist. He was assassinated in Moscow by a gunman who also killed journalist Anastasia Baburova. Markelov had represented victims of human rights abuses and criticized the Russian government's actions in Chechnya. His death raised concerns about the safety of those opposing the regime. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Anastasia Baburova Age: 25 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Anastasia Baburova, a journalist and activist, was shot dead alongside human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov in Moscow. She had reported on neo-Nazi groups and political violence. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is believed to be connected to her activism. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Natalia Estemirova Age: 50 Date of Death: July 15, 2009 Cause of Death: Natalia Estemirova, a human rights activist and journalist, was abducted in Grozny, Chechnya, and found dead later that day. She had documented human rights violations in Chechnya and criticized the government. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is widely believed to be connected to her activism and criticism of the Chechen authorities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Anna Politkovskaya Age: 48 Date of Death: October 7, 2006 Cause of Death: Anna Politkovskaya, an investigative journalist, was shot dead in her apartment building in Moscow. She had reported extensively on human rights abuses, corruption, and the war in Chechnya. Her work was critical of Putin's government, and her murder sparked international outrage. Despite investigations, the masterminds behind her killing have not been brought to justice. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Yuri Shchekochikhin Age: 53 Date of Death: July 3, 2003 Cause of Death: Yuri Shchekochikhin was a journalist, writer, and member of the Russian State Duma. He investigated corruption, organized crime, and human rights abuses. Shchekochikhin suddenly fell ill and died from an unknown cause. Some suspect poisoning, but the circumstances remain unclear.

You are definitely on to something. Trump makes everything interesting. Why not stock analysis, which is totally boring? Instead of 30 day and 60 day moving averages, we could track DJT with 30 and 60 day moving indictments. My guess is the way it works is the more new indictments, the more DJT pops. Since the cult will visit the site heavily to find out why Trump is innocent and persecuted, as always. And to donate money, of course. Then instead of relative strength index, we could have relative scam index. If he gets elected, that could explode. I mean, in the traditional sense of RSI 30 means oversold. I think Trump could easily get well over 30 scams a month going to fleece the cult. Instead of oversold, we just call it overscammed. I don't think we'll ever have to worry about being underscammed with this crowd. They'll always donate money, of course. This is off to a great start. DJT opened at $70.55, peaked at $79.38, and closed just under $58. So everybody who bought today lost, except for Donald J. Trump. How much more perfect could a stock named after Donald J. Trump be?

You know there's gonna be a sequel, of course. There's a lot of money to be made in sequels. If he wins, I'm guessing everyone can upgrade to the King Donald Version for 50 % off. The new and improved version won't require the U.S. Constitution or Bill Of Rights, of course.

Btw, I do have one reason to be happy about this. And I know, as OP, you really are hoping to keep this thread narrowly focused on what a genius Trump is to use Genocide Money to build a company that he can then get his cult to buy overpriced shares of. I mean, the guy has a knack for that sort of thing, for sure. But there has been speculation by smart guys like Frank Luntz that if Leticia James starts seizing Trump Tower or his real estate since he can't pay up, that could create a backlash and sympathy for out poor little rich rapist and election denier. So if you wanna buy a speculative meme stock so Trump has money to pay Leticia James and E Jean Carroll and God knows who else in the future so his properties don't have to be seized, you are doing Democrats like me a service. Thank you, Sir. I deeply appreciate it. That said, this concern about backlash is probably a bit far fetched. In the Harvard/Harris polls you like to cite, when asked about the $454M bond, 54 % of voters - including 20 % of Republicans - say the size of the verdict is fair. That's more than the 51 % who say Trump is a threat to democracy. As I argued in another post, it's pretty clear that just like in 2016 and 2020 Trump is a hard NO for a little bit more than half the country. Even so, I wouldn't want people feeling sorry for out poor little rich rapist for having his assets seized. I mean, grabbing pussy is fine. But having assets seized is pretty cruel, when ya think about it. This is of course good news for E. Jean Carroll! If you want to give Trump the money to pay her, that's really swell of you. Trump is always the best when it comes to raping people, in all sorts of ways.

Nah. The country will be "better" when Lichtman turns out to be right, for the eleventh time in a row, and we send Donald J. Scam packing. But you are more than welcome to donate to him in his retirement. I'm sure he'll figure out a way to need your money. Somehow. I'm up about 150 % on SOXL and FNGU since last Fall. My nephew, who is nerdy smart, is now a millionaire thanks to the shares he bought in Fall 2022 and just kept buying. He's up like 500 %. So I'm fine. But thanks for your concern. Good luck on the investing. Most of my net worth is in real estate. For some strange reason, I don't go bankrupt. Or get near bankrupt again, and decide to "share the wealth" with genocidal Russian leaders with rich pals who bail me out, with strings always attached. I guess I'm just weird that way. I'd be careful, though. From 1996 to 2000 I organized two statewide coalitions in Oregon that stopped Enron from fucking up the state the way they did California. My job was to convince regulators and politicians it was a scam. We stopped Enron, completely, and won everything we wanted. So I know a little bit about scammers. You've just got to be careful out there, buddy. Of course, the whole thing with Enron was to make the corruption so complicated no one could understand it. DJT is not that smart. It's a meme stock. Not well put together, just like his crappy stuff made in China. And he knew if he could use Genocide Money to get it listed his cult would buy, buy, buy. It's a simple concept. Pyramid scheme sort of thing. Might not make a good long term investment. But enjoy the ride.

How much of the money does Genocide Man get? And what strings were attached to Trump when Genocide Man's cronies bailed the almost bankrupt company out? How Russian Money Helped Save Trump’s Business After his financial disasters two decades ago, no U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in. Russian Made Millions On Insider Trading Tied To Trump media Court filings accuse the Miami-based owner of a porn-friendly bank of insider trades in the SPAC merging with Truth Social's parent company.

In Genocide World, there is a brain impairment that is common, and intentional. The idea of "democracy" or "freedom to protest" is systematically discouraged, deterred, poisoned, jailed, or assassinated. Sometimes "freedom to protest" ends up simply falling out of a window, or with a bullet in its head. Genocide Fan # 2 suffers from this malady. He does not understand that in most countries, protesting the United States or Genocide World does not result in jail, poisoning, or assassination. Typical protest in the United States against Iraq War: Typical protest in Germany against Genocide Man's assassination of opposition leaders: Typical funeral in Genocide World. This brain impairment in Genocide Man #2 and others is unfortunate, but incurable. The genocide-impaired brain does not function the same. A typical symptom is unquestioning support for genocide and mass murder. In fact, in Genocide World the normal brain that functions freely in a democratic and open society is considered an illness. A typical treatment is two bullets in the head, every four to eight hours.

Genocide Fan #2 is funny. He said he doesn't negotiate with terrorists like me. And he said he will no longer address me. I'm fine with him saying whatever he wants about me. Pretty much everything he posts underscores that he wants more genocide, and more death. This is why Genocide World is fucked, and the horror only gets worse. It's not that I want Russia to experience deepening horror. I don't. It's just that it so obvious that so many people are going to have to die for Genocide Man to give up. Because he'll never give up. So millions of Russians, especially ethnic minorities, will need to be processed into fertilizer by Genocide Man. Ian Bremmer made an interesting comment recently about why many innocent Russians will be slaughtered for years and maybe decades to come. Simply because they live in Genocide World and are ruled by Genocide Man. The whole 90 minute interview on geopolitics is really interesting. But he said this at 1:12:00, regarding what happens EVEN IF UKRAINE WINS. I do, too. Bremer is right. I think Ukrainians hate Russians so deeply that they will not want to make peace. It's a problem. The US might shift toward conditioning future aid on some effort to make peace, regardless of who is winning. But I don't think Bremer is a sadist. Nor am I. I think he is just a realist, being honest about what genocide and mass murder does to people. Absent a solution, it is why of course Palestinians will want to kill Jews. Simply because they are Jews. And Ukrainians will kill Russians, just because they are the people that started the genocide. As Hillary said, you reap what you sow. Russians are sowing genocide. What do they expect? If Ukraine does win, whatever "win" means, I think it reduces the likelihood that Bremer is right. The government of Ukraine, as Bremmer says in the interview, will take the "win" - even if they have to de facto concede some of the land Putin took - and turn West and join NATO and the EU. The children Genocide Man stole and the Ukrainians forced to live in Genocide World against their will will be worse off. But the rest of Ukraine will rebuild, with NATO security, and be better off. But even then they will hate Russians and want to kill them. To the degree that Genocide Man "wins", meaning he occupies large chunks of Ukraine for years like in Afghanistan, that it is a guarantee that Bremer is right. And the only good Russian is one that is dead. Not only Russians in Ukraine. Also Russians in Russia. The terrorism at the concert hall is small ball. Ukraine will have every reason to kill as many Russians as they can is as many horrific ways as they can. I'm not a psychologist. But I think Genocide Fans #1 and #2 do exhibit a sickness or weakness in the genocide-wired brain. I think they actually believe what Genocide Man has told them. They have said that it will be easier to beat Ukraine because they are right next door, on flat land, and we have hospitals nearby. It's hard for me to believe the genocide-wired brain can actually be this weak and defective. That's like saying Israel is safer because Hamas lives right next door, and it is easy for them to get to us. Oct. 7th sure proved that theory wrong. Russian missiles killing mothers and babies in Ukrainian hospitals in Mariupol sure disproved the idea that Russia is better off having hospitals nearby. I think Iraq, and the genocide the US started there, is a good analogy. We opened Pandora's box, and sectarian and ethnic and terrorist genocides of all kinds flew out. If that were happening in every neighborhood of America, they would have happily killed as many Americans as they could. Instead, the radicalized people had to work very hard to pull off one 9/11, which they have failed to repeat since. The good news for the US is it was NOT happening right next door. So if Russians think somehow it is a good thing to radicalize an entire nation right next door, so they want to kill all of you, there is really something sick and defective about what Genocide Man has done to the brains of Russians who think this way. I don't blame Genocide Fans #1 and #2 for not wanting to believe they are fucked, for decades to come, ESPECIALLY if things go relatively well for Putin. Who really wants to be doomed?

Thank you, @EmmetK. I appreciate your consistency in letting us know you were abused by facts. So you will never tolerate them. It's just a fact that Lichtman has been right every time since 1984. But facts no doubt abused you. So you abuse facts. You are so deeply committed to abusing facts that, in this case, even the fact that your cult leader, Trump, personally congratulated Lichtman for being right in 2016 can not penetrate the cult brain. This seems like a simple enough fact. But for some strange reason the cult brain repels it, instantly. I guess the cult leader can be smart enough to acknowledge some facts. But the inferior cult brain of his followers can't, perhaps. Or maybe you were just uniquely abused by facts. Of course, when Lichtman turns out to be right again, you will have to deny that Biden won, and treat him like he is not a legitimate President. So maybe you are just preparing for that. Hey! Here's a thought. Maybe this next time if there is a Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating you can get in on that, too. It's patriotic to abuse facts, and abuse cops, too! Were you raped by facts, @EmmetK? Or did facts beat you to near death, like the good Trump folk did to the cops at the Capitol? Because Morning Consult's new poll has Biden +1, and the Harvard/Harris poll has Trump +2. So they are both tied, basically. I know you deeply want to deny the fact that Kennedy will not get 14 % of the vote, and almost all Stein and West supporters say they may change their mind. Which is why Harvard/Harris has Trump +5 in a five way race. Just like Lichtman has been right every time, which is a fact the cult brain must repel, the cult brain must also repel the fact that these poll numbers for third party candidates in March always go down by 50 % or more. Always. And in 2024 most of that vote goes back to Biden, as the two way race in Penn's polls show. But since the cult brain has to deny incredibly consistent sets of facts, I know your brain has to repel this instantly. Mark Penn's Harvard/Harris polls always lean a bit more Trumpy/conservative. So him saying Trump is up by +2 in a two way race ain't bad at this point, when polls don't tell us much, anyway. Here's is another fact in Penn's report your cult brain has to instantly repel, @EmmetK: TRUMP MAINTAINS HIS LEAD OVER BIDEN, BUT BY A SLIMMER MARGIN THIS MONTH As Penn's poll states, it went from +6 Trump in Feb. to + 2 Trump in March in a two way race. That's a big move. And I know, @EmmetK. This feels like rape, doesn't it? I am sorry that facts hurt so bad. I hope your cult brain instantly repelled this fact, so as not to cause you pain. I've said repeatedly that while the primary was on, people were mostly focused on what they don't like about Biden. What they mostly heard about Trump is "He's winning. He's kicking ass. He's strong." Now that the primary is essentially over, and it is becoming a choice between Trump and Biden, I said things would change. My sense is they are beginning to. But it is too early to tell. Certainly Penn saying the polls that were close in Feb. are now even closer is not bad news for Biden. Here's another fact the cult brain must instantly repel. This election, FOR A FACT, will be decided by double haters, who really don't want either Trump or Biden. The cult brain can not accept the fact that a majority of voters don't like Trump, and say he's too old and too volatile and too criminal. So the thing to pay attention to is which of these pieces of shit do the double haters hate most. Here's the thing I overweight when I read Penn's polls. (I know, @EmmetK. You never read the content or analyze it. It is too much for the cult brain to handle.) 1. 48 % of voters say their personal economic situation is excellent or good. Since we live in a time when at least 40 % of voters are ideologically committed to the notion that their life and finances have to be horrible since Biden is President, what is important is that number gets to be in the mid-50's. It is headed in that direction as the stock market rises and inflation subsides. I think Biden's biggest problem with young voters is high rents, and high mortgage interest rates. When the Fed starts to lower rates, which they will, that will help. 2. 49 % of Independents say their personal financial situation is getting worse under Biden. That number will probably be a little lower in November, unless the AWOL recession suddenly appears. 47 % of Independents say Biden is getting worse as President. Vast majorities of Independents think BOTH Biden and Trump are too old to be POTUS. So that doesn't count. So my point is this. Among double haters, what is it that actually makes Biden the uniquely worse piece of shit? And how many voters feel that way? I think if you think Biden is making your personal financial situation worse, and he is getting worse as President, that is a hard NO. Saying Biden is getting worse is a clear measure of people who simply can't handle his visible aging, or think he is whacko. So slightly less than half of Independents will find it very hard to vote for Biden. That's my read. 3. 52 % of Independents say "Trump's legal cases make it impossible for him to be a viable candidate for President". 58 % of Independents say "he has committed crimes for which he should be convicted". 54 % of Independents say that Trump is "a threat democracy". So among Independents, what is it that makes Trump the uniquely worse piece of shit, and how many voters feel that way? What makes Trump the worse piece of shit is his criminality and contempt for democracy. These poll results, which are very consistent among Penn's polls and other polls. suggest that for a bit over half of Independents Trump is a hard NO. In two national elections, Trump has never won more than 47 % of the vote. So having a five way race will help Trump, by lowering the bar. But if Independents break to Biden, or even split 50/50, Biden probably wins. In 2020, Biden got 51 % of the vote. These numbers suggest that the underlying trend is a little more than half of Independent voters see Trump as a hard NO, and a little less than half of Independents see Biden as a hard NO. The more they focus on choosing between which of these two pieces of shit - one of whom will win - the more these hard NOs will kick in. For some people that won't happen until they vote. 4. In one of my verbose posts weeks ago I suggested that the worst thing in Penn's poll for Trump is that 57 % of people say they approve of how he did as President. That's fantasy. Because there was not one day of his Presidency when 50 % of people actually approved of Trump. In fact, the fantasy has begun to wear off already. In Feb. 57 % of voters said they approved of Trump's Presidency. Now it is down to 55 %. That right there helps to explain why his lead over Biden is shrinking. I think this fantasy - that people approved of Trump as President - only goes down from here. For two reasons. First, Democrats will spend a fortune reminding people why they disapproved of Trump's Presidency, while it was actually happening. Second, and more important, when the campaign gets going Trump will remind people of the reasons they fired him. That may already be starting to happen, as well. But it's early days. I think this is a bit like wanting to remember the nice things about your ex. But that doesn't mean you want to get back together with them. Again, Penn's polls tend to be more favorable to Trump than the RCP average. So if this is what the slightly pro-Trump polls are telling us, it's not good news for Trump.

Genocide Fan #2 so deeply supports Genocide Man and has so much blood spurting from his eyes and ears that he actually seems incapable of understanding the very simple words coming out of Hillary Clinton's mouth. So let's try to make this simple for Genocide Fan #2. Although support for genocide probably has deeply fucked up his brain. Not to mention his capacity for empathy. The main point Clinton made is that US support for what became the Taliban led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. From a realist perspective it was, to quote her, "a good investment". One could debate how much of a role Afghanistan played. I'd argue the collapse of the USSR had a lot more to do with the collapse of the Soviet economy. In part based on the fact that they just couldn't keep up with the US and NATO in building a military/industrial complex. Being smaller and having a shittier, less innovative economy does matter. But however you view it, the key point is that the Soviet Union did collapse. So the parallel is incredibly clear. And even a guy who has a deep abiding tolerance for genocide should be able to see it. Defending Ukraine is "a good investment". It may well result in the eventual collapse of the Russian Federation as well. If I had to bet on that, I wouldn't. But if Genocide Man said I had to bet or I would be sent off to become fertilizer, I would bet on the eventual collapse of the Russian Federation. Years from now, after old and weak Genocide Man finally dies. I wouldn't wish for that, for all kinds of reasons from A to Z. Starting with atomic bombs. But the fact that it happened to a much stronger Soviet Union suggests it could also happen to a weaker Russian Federation. For some strange reason, millions of people just don't like being turned into fertilizer. Who knew? It's a reason to hope maybe Russia and NATO could come to terms. But name the country in Europe that trusts Genocide Man now more than they did two years ago? The second thing Clinton said is that you reap what you sow. So in funding the Taliban the US unwittingly set itself up for 9/11. And a twenty year quagmire in at least two nations we occupied: Afghanistan, and Iraq. If you want to stretch the point, you could add Hillary's own brilliant idea of adding Libya to that list. So, yeah. The US got an "F" as a unipolar power. It goes to the point Mearsheimer makes: military power is a blunt force. It is better at wrecking things than building or sustaining them. Even if you are the US, or USSR. So Genocide Man, a weak mass murderer from a weak country, has zero chance. Let's apply the principle to today, in Ukraine. The US will reap what we sow. So what we are sowing in Ukraine is like what we sowed with the Taliban, right? We want theocracy. We want misogyny. We want a society where male soldiers rape and shoot girls who don't submit in every way. Nah, not really. What the US and Europe and allies all over the world are actually sowing, this time, is a capitalist democracy. We are defending a sovereign nation that wants help, badly. Europe in particular is sheltering their women and children so Genocide Man and his soldiers can't murder, torture, or rape them before they are processed into fertilizer. So it is just a completely different thing. We are sowing the principle of strong alliances in the defense of sovereignty. What are we reaping? NATO is stronger and more unified than it has been in half a century. Ukraine can't wait to join NATO and the EU. Even if I assume Russia can grow as fast as the US, which has a GDP over ten times larger, that means every year the US economy grows ten times as much as Genocide World, in absolute terms. And Russia can only do that by growing a genocide machine that turns Russians into fertilizer. This is why and how the US beat the Soviet Union, which was bigger and more powerful. Genocide Man must suck at math. A racist nation that turns ethnic minorities into fertilizer to defend old kleptocrats like Genocide Man is asking for trouble. Let's see what Genocide World reaps in a decade. If what the US and allies all over the world reap from Ukraine is defense of a multipolar world order based on democracy, capitalism, and sovereignty, I'm good with that. I think China is going to be the one that eventually helps control Genocide Man. Even though it may take years. Because their economic self-interest lies with pretty much every economic powerhouse in the world not named Russia. Which is not an economic powerhouse, anyway. This is why liberals who opposed VietNam, opposed Iraq, and were ambivalent about Afghanistan (which started because we were defending ourselves from the worst terrorist attack in US history) feel very differently about Ukraine. Oh. And I voted for Hillary Clinton.

Sorry to interrupt Genocide Fan's screeds with a very thoughtful debate. But this one is worth an hour of your time. It made me think a lot. Look out below! I'm a big fan of John Mearsheimer, who anti-Putin writer Anne Applebaum has described as "Putin's useful idiot". Unlike Tucker Carlson, Mearsheimer makes an incredibly cogent case about how the US is fucking up horribly both in Ukraine and Gaza. I agree with most of his points about how we got where we are. Through stupidity, and not taking Putin seriously. I've watched at least 20 hours of his lectures or interviews in the last few years. And it is almost always him talking, or him being interviewed by people who mostly share his views. So I thought this would be a good one. Because it was obvious that Piers and John were going to strongly disagree. So before I get to the substance of Ukraine, a paragraph on the two things that surprised me the most. Piers came across as surprisingly critical of Israel. He said the slaughter of Palestinian women and children seems endless. It's a "mess", to quote him. And there is nothing more than a vague plan for what happens when the slaughter ends. Other than more occupation, which created the problem. If Piers Morgan is saying these things, it confirms Mearsheimer's point that Israel is badly losing the global battle for hearts and minds. Including in America. The last ten minutes or so is mutual congratulations for having had a surprisingly thoughtful and respectful debate. It would be good if there were more debates like this. On Ukraine, Mearsheimer is extremely effective in any forum he speaks in by calmly repeating factual and logical points. He often starts with Bucharest 2008. If we stipulate that humans have things called ears, all you have to do is listen to Putin spend about 15 years saying that expanding NATO to Ukraine or Georgia was unacceptable. Merkel opposed it because, presciently, she said Putin would see Ukraine joining NATO as "an act of war". How can anyone be surprised? Mearsheimer argues NATO simply thought it could shove this down Putin's throat. He rejects Morgan's claim that Putin is an imperialist, arguing Putin has never said he wants to take over Poland or win back East Germany. Which of course no longer exists. He argues, correctly I think, that Putin doesn't even want to take over all of Ukraine. Maybe close to half, which speaks Russian. Because Genocide Man realizes what long term occupation of a nation of people who hate you involves. Lest Putin forgot, that's why Islamic terrorists just slaughtered a lot of people in Moscow. All this is factual and logical, I think. This is a war that is a tragedy, and could have been avoided. All that said, it's a bit like saying if I were not Gay, my life would be different. But I am Gay. If Putin were not Genocide Man, this all might be different. Ukraine might be Kissinger's neutral bridge of peace between East and West. The best technical minds in the world might be in Russia, a flourishing democracy, where they are leading the global build out of electric cars or AI. Instead of fleeing to anywhere else in the world, to get away from a genocide economy that will eventually turn them into fertilizer. So we are where we are. And this is where I just disagree with Mearsheimer. His argument is that Putin will win, and eventually make Ukraine a landlocked failed state, Because Putin has far more people and far more guns. It's a great point. Mearsheimer, in addition to being an eminent historian, served in the military for a decade during VietNam and graduated from West Point. He knows way more about winning wars than I do. That said, it doesn't change the obvious fact that the US lost in VietNam, anyway. Despite being a far bigger and richer country, with more guns and more nuclear bombs. And the same failures happened everywhere else it tried to occupy. As they did with the USSR and Russia, mostly. It's all goes back to the Powell Doctrine. What works best are limited military objectives where you can get in and get out and sustain what you do win. Bush 41 proved it worked in Iraq. Putin proved it worked in Syria. Mearsheimer often cites Genocide Man's Dec. 2021 letter to NATO as proof that Putin wanted negotiations over NATO, not war. Many would disagree with his assessment. But even if we stipulate Putin wanted peace, what you have to conclude is Genocide Man is just plain stupid. Mearsheimer argues that Putin actually trusted the West too much, because he thought the West would want to avoid war. Maybe. Either way, if you just go by that document it spells out how badly Genocide Man is losing. Putin wanted agreements to not expand NATO. What did he get? Sweden and Finland joined NATO. All of Europe is preparing to destroy Russia economically and even militarily, if necessary. Most important, Genocide Man did not want Ukraine to join NATO. And 15 years ago Ukraine did not want to join NATO. Now 90 % of Ukrainians want to join NATO. Why? To stop Genocide Man's genocide, mass murder, rape, and torture. How did Genocide Man get what he wanted? Ukrainians will not suddenly decide they trust Genocide Man. In 200 years Ukrainians will still think of this as Putin's genocide. If Trump wins and defunds Ukraine, it will be a disaster for Ukraine and for the United States. But it won't end the war, which Europe and NATO will continue to fund. Even if there is a cold peace, as Mearsheimer argues, it sets the stage for Ukrainians to slaughter Russians and sabotage Russia as much as they can. So the best case scenario for Genocide Man seems to be a permanent occupation, where the occupied have 1000 times more options to wreak havoc on the occupying power than Afghans did resisting either the USSR or the US. I'm not Mearsheimer. And I agree with him that this war is a humanitarian tragedy that could have been prevented. And that can be blamed in part on the stupidity and arrogance of the US and NATO. But it doesn't change the fact that if you look at Putin's demands of Dec. 2021, he is already losing badly on all his most important strategic objectives. And now the question is how many Russians is Genocide Man willing to process into fertilizer to create the conditions for a long-term quagmire that will eventually end in Russia losing. Here's what one historian who has studied the issue says about that: I can see how Genocide Man can become more totalitarian still and process millions of Russians into fertilizer, if that's what it takes. "High cost" is an understatement in describing what that does to Genocide World militarily, economically, politically, and demographically (nations do need young men to grow). But who cares? Genocide means never having to say you're sorry. Including to the millions of your own people you kill, or jail, or torture, or suppress. Where I think Mearsheimer's argument falls apart is that it overlooks most of the history of the last century in terms of how occupations worked out in practice. The US has more people and more weapons than (fill in the name of a country the US tried to occupy). So what? We lost anyway. And it destroyed the US as a unipolar power. I'd be the first to argue we fucked up, and we got what we deserved. Hopefully we learned something. Genocide Man is now making all the same mistakes. Just stop right there. Anyone can figure out why this ones fails. As Piers Morgan noted, millions of women and children in Afghanistan will tell you today that the US occupation of Afghanistan was welcome. And they were better off when the US was in Kabul, as opposed to the misogynist men who rule it now. The US lost, anyway. By that standard, Genocide Man doesn't stand a chance. Where are the Ukrainian women and girls that welcome Putin's mass murder, torture, and rape? There are none. And there never will be. Mearsheimer commented in another recent interview that serving in the military really makes you realize the limits of military power. It is a blunt force, that is mostly good at wrecking things. I agree. If I could interview him, I'd ask him why he doesn't simply apply that principle to Ukraine. Genocide Man excels at wrecking things. And getting the world to despise his genocide. I'd bet money that in 10 or 20 years this will go down as one of the best examples of the limits of military power, even when you have way more people and way more guns. It is already that. It just gets worse for Russians from here, thanks to Genocide Man. If I want to be sympathetic to Vlad, sweet and kind as he is, I could argue the US and NATO set a trap for him. And he walked right into it. Even if I look at it that way, maybe the US was not so stupid after all. No one forced Ukraine to want to join the EU and NATO, until Genocide Man invaded. And no one forced Genocide Man to invade.

Poor little Genocide Fan #2 is fucked., fucked, fucked. He whines and whines and whines like a bitch. Forget Belgrade. I'm wondering how long until Ukraine starts bombing Belograd, the Russian city that is an important part of Putin's Genocide Machine supply chain. Belograd also plays a key role in Genocide Man's Glorious Project To Turns Millions Of Russian Men Into Fertilizer. Genocide Fan #1 claimed that Ukraine is different than US and USSR losses in Afghanistan, or VietNam, or Iraq, because it is flat and right next door. True! That makes it even easier for Ukraine to retaliate in ways that none of those other countries could. Russia Faces 'Serious' Threat as Ukraine Attacks Refineries Ukraine can and will fuck with and weaken Russia for as long as they are occupied. (See Afghanistan, occupation for details.) And they speak Russian. And, if we are talking about occupied Ukraine, they have the sympathy of most of the people who live there, who witnessed the mass murder and rape and killing of women of children. And have said time and time again in polls, before they were occupied, that they do not want to live in Genocide World. So the possibilities for grinding Genocide Man down and turning Russians into fertilizer and blowing up Russian critical infrastructure are endless. The horror and death is only starting for Genocide World. And, to be clear, that's not meant with cruelty. That is meant with empathy. Including empathy for the innocent Russian women and children who will die in these attacks. As an American, I know what the Iraq genocide did to America. The number of soldiers the US and our allies lost was small compared to massive Russian losses already. ISIS could not cross the border or fire up a missile or drone and take out US oil refineries in Texas. Genocide Man has set Russia up for decades of being ostracized and shunned and targeted for slow bleeding by many of the most powerful economies in the world. Worse, Genocide Man has set up his own people for death, death, and death. And he just proved, again, that he can't stop it. He can't stop terrorists. He can't win a war against Ukraine. All he can do is whine like the evil murderous bitch that he is and ramp up the genocide some more. And Genocide Fan # 2 now wants to whine like a sad little bitch about the horrors unleashed on Russia because of the mass murder of men, women, and children started by the sadistic butcher he praises? Give me a handkerchief, please!

McCaul expects Johnson to bring Ukraine aid bill to the floor after Easter “His commitment is to put it on the floor after Easter,” McCaul said Sunday during an interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” More evidence that principled Republican Ukraine hawks have Speaker Johnson by the balls. And are willing to squeeze. Even if they are not as colorful in their clothing and pronouncements as Marjorie Taylor Greene. If McCaul is saying that, it sounds like a deal to put it to a vote has been made. Ms. MAGA In Red specifically said she was warning Johnson about putting Ukraine aid to a vote when she filed her motion to oust him. So we can probably take her literally. She must have known a plan to put Ukraine on the floor was in the works. And her warning is: "Do that, and you die." Pro-Ukraine Republican hawks on the other side in effect said, "Fine. I quit early. That way our whole fucking majority dies. is that what you want?" As Adam Kinzinger just said, if Ms. MAGA in Red does carry through on her threat, it sets the stage for a bipartisan group to save Johnson's Speakership from pro-Trump extremists who want to defund Ukraine and quit NATO. How does this help Trump? See what Genocide Man does to people? He is so repulsive and disgusting and murderous that principled Republicans are willing to quit early or squeeze a House Speaker's balls if needed. Genocide Man may not fully appreciate what he is up against as his lies and mass murder continue. Putin has done an excellent job of convincing the vast majority of Americans he is an enemy. It's hard not to believe this isn't going to hurt Trump. Ms. MAGA In Red comes from a safe Republican district. So she can be a Trump gadfly all she wants. Biden's SOTU line, "I will not bow down to Putin," was clearly a dress rehearsal for the campaign. Most Americans agree with him. Most Americans support NATO. It's not going to help Trump that he is making a case that he wants to undercut Ukraine, undercut principled hawks in his own party, and bow down to Putin. Since Biden is supposedly weak and senile, which sounds weaker? A) "I will not bow down to Putin." Or B) "Mr. Putin, give me a loan." Putin's rich cronies did bail out Truth Social with millions when it was near broke. It didn't violate any law, or there would be even more indictments. So maybe Trump is just returning a favor to his genocidal pal. Trump Media probed by feds for possible money laundering after $8M loans from Putin-tied lender: report

Well, he did it. I suppose he couldn't help himself. Genocide Man is all about genocide. Genocide Man is all about death. Major missile barrage targets Kyiv, western Ukraine The innocent dead in Moscow have not yet been buried, and Putin has already dishonored them by telling lies about who murdered them. Genocide Man further dishonors the victims of terror by using it as a pretext to ramp up his genocide and kill children. The barrage he launched on Ukraine has killed a bunch of children in the last 24 hours. Genocide Man is probably trying to cover up his incompetence. If he admitted it was Isis, he'd have to admit he ignored warnings and dropped the ball. Mass murderers can't have a reputation for incompetence. Even though Genocide Man does. The good news for NATO and Europe and democratic allies is Genocide Man can't win World War III. He can't even beat an army in Ukraine. The three things that have been consistent since the war started is his incompetence, his lies, and his cold-blooded genocide. There are only two reasons Genocide Man has not lost the war already. He is willing to kill as many Ukrainians as it takes. Men, women, children, and dogs. And he is willing to process as many Russians into fertilizer as it takes. The horror in Moscow is one day's work on the slaughter fields of Ukraine. Genocide Man will throw millions of his own people into the meat grinder to uphold his lies, his power, and his wealth.

It's interesting looking back at the political consequences of the events of about a decade ago in Syria today. Some of the things that seemed like victories at the time set the stage for future losses. And some of the things that felt like debacles turned out not to matter so much. Genocide Man's intervention in Syria set the stage for Ukraine. It helped create Putin's reputation as a bad ass force that was not to be challenged, and got what it wanted. I think that is a good example of the Powell Doctrine of having limited and winnable military objectives. When Bush 41 did that in Iraq, it worked. When Bush 43 ignored the Powell Doctrine and went for total victory in Iraq, it led to a debacle and genocide. In the same way, Putin's limited military success in Syria helped set the stage for his debacle in Ukraine. He's not such a bad ass anymore. Syria also set the stage for over 1 million refugees flowing into Europe. While Turkey took half of them, Germany ended up with over half a million, and Sweden was #2 with over 100,000. At the time Merkel and Germans were mostly widely praised. Eventually it became clear that anti-immigrant movements grew quickly. And helped right wing parties rise in both nations, and across Europe. That said, Germany is run by a left-of-center coalition. Sweden just joined NATO. We'll see how this turns out in November in the US. If Trump manages to win on an anti-immigrant wave, it may make Obama's policy of being "Deporter In Chief" look wise in retrospect. But you are right that Europe has been more welcoming. And has mostly managed to avoid a reaction so strong that rightwing anti-immigrant parties took over. Of course, the millions of Ukrainians who have flowed into Europe are poster children for why Putin's genocide must be stopped.

At the very least, the way Medvedev and then Putin immediately lashed out at Ukraine creates the impression that this is a logical explanation. As well as Putin's decades long history of terror and mass murder against Russians. What I found particularly chilling was that Medvedev pointedly said that Ukrainian state officials deserve to be killed without mercy "if" they are somehow found responsible. That sounds like a possible rationale for assassinations to me. Medvedev has a habit of threatening heads of state with execution. What a sweetie! This is why Russia is deeply fucked for decades to come. The normal rules of civilization and decency no longer apply. Name any other country where this happened - the Bali bar bombings, Paris, London - and the world immediately reacted in unconditional sympathy for victims and outrage against the terrorists. We are seeing a shadow of that, with genuine statements of sympathy for the victims. But now the world is left wondering what evil Putin is plotting next. Whether it is because Putin did this, or terrorists did it and Genocide Man will simply use to rationalize genocide, is to some degree beside the point. Trump and Russiagate come to mind. Let's not underestimate Genocide Man's stupidity and incompetence. There were so many bizarre things Trump did, including trying to impede Mueller's investigation, that it sure seemed like he had to be in cahoots with Putin. And certainly Genocide Man has done Trump favors. Like when his Russian oligarch cronies funded Truth Social when it close to going broke. But after Mueller issued his report, my conclusion was that it could all be explained by Trump's stupidity and incompetence. So it could be that Genocide Man didn't plot the attack on his own people, and is now simply trying to cover up his stupidity and incompetence with more genocide. This is consistent with Genocide Man's history of incompetence. Or, if you prefer, his cold-blooded ruthlessness. When terrorists took over a theater in 2002, most Russians died because Putin had them poisoned to death. Not because terrorists killed them. There is good news. The number of tourists avoiding Russia can't get any smaller. Nobody wanted to visit Genocide World, anyway.

So now Genocide Fan # 2 is playing the victim card? The Oscars are over. And you're not really good at playing the victim. You support genocide. Genocide Man is about genocide. Genocide Man is about death. Genocide Man is about lies. It is who Genocide Man is. It is what Genocide Man does. Now Genocide Man and his surrogates want more genocide, death, and lies.

Who’s to blame for the Moscow concert hall attack? Some Russians blame lax security for the horrific attack claimed by ISIL. But a few analysts recall a darker pattern from Russia’s modern history. To put this in another context, AlJazeera is doing really good reporting on reactions on the Arab Street of views of the United States for arming Israel as Netanyahu conducts a genocide in Gaza. Just when you think Arab opinion about the US could not get worse, it did. So it's interesting that in this instance, less than a day after a horrific attack, they are laying out the cold facts objectively.

Genocide Man invaded Crimea in 2014. Genocide Man has been orchestrating genocide ever since. The US tried to prevent the mass murder of its own citizens, and of Russians. Genocide Man garners no sympathy from the US or the world when he lies in defense of his genocide after a tragedy. Genocide Man, even in a moment of horrible tragedy, is about genocide and lies. That was predictable as soon as Genocide Man had his surrogate Medvedev talk about killing Ukrainians without mercy yesterday. Including state officials. Who knows what other lies and horror Genocide Man is now cooking up for Ukrainians and poor innocent Russians.

My heart goes out to all the Russians, particularly ethnic minorities in a racist, homophobic country, who Genocide Man will send off to be processed into fertilizer because of this. Genocide Man is using lies and terror to sow hate and war. Genocide Man will say anything. Genocide Man says Jew are Nazis and they must be kllled. How many Russians does Genocide Man have to kill with his lies, hate, and mass murder?