stevenkesslar

Jesus Fucking Christ. Can you just stop with the negativity. Focus on what could possibly go right/ 1. Lara Trump adds style, grace, and elegance. Why would Gay men be against Trump supporters decked out in pink? 2. Lara writes books that don't have to be burned or banned. No Gay stuff. 3. Lara, following in the footsteps of President Trump and Melania, inspires us to be our best. None of that Toni Morrison garbage. No stories about slavery that psychologically oppress White children. Just us, trying to be our best. Like President Trump.

Thank you! Again, you are doing a great job of making my arguments for me. This isn't even a debate. I am using YOUR facts, and YOUR charts. So if I am reaching propagandistic conclusions based on zero facts, it means you have no facts. You are just spewing propaganda. Which is true. You're just doing your best impression of Tucker sucking Putin's cock. It's not a pretty image. It has nothing to do with reality. If you want to make the point that Russia grew in 2023, we agree. There is no debate. Russia did grow. I made that point before you did. If you want to make the point that Russia survived, despite sanctions, we agree. What your own chart above shows is that Russia is stagnating under Putin, and has been since the GFC. Those numbers make it incredibly clear. Based on the numbers you posted, when you go back to 1989, the average Chinese is maybe 1,500 % better off. 15 times better off. The average Russian is maybe 10 % better off? 20 % better off? Again, this is your chart, not mine. But it completely supports my point. China is definitely growing, and winning. Russia is stagnating. In your defense, comparing Russia and China - which was my point = is of course going to overstate just how fucked Russia is. If you take China out of that chart and just compare Russia to Russia, things do not look quite as bad. But my point is correct, and you have confirmed it. Long term, China is clearly winning and growing by leaps and bounds. Russia is stagnating long term. Especially the last decade. If you want to say, "Yes, but Russia has grown," good for you. If a billionaire's income goes up 10 %, and a poor person's income goes up 10 %, both incomes grew at the same rate. One is still a billionaire. And the other is still poor. My point is about the long term. Which you absolutely can't acknowledge, or probably see. Because Russia is fucked. I completely agree that Putin kind of won 2023. He's building a war economy that requires turnings hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer. And that requires committing genocide by killing and raping and torturing Ukrainians. And stealing their children. And making them hate you and want to kill you because you are Russian. If that's your long term economic plan, go for it. You're still fucked. You did not deny that you are personally advocating the genocide of Ukrainians. You want to kill as many of them as you can so Russia can win. It's sick and wrong. But if that is your economic and military plan, good luck. Again, all I have to do is turn to your charts to make my points. If your point is Russia is growing, great. I agree. If your point is that Russia is growing at about the same rate as the US, great. I agree. That is precisely why Russia is fucked. You can't acknowledge that. Probably because you can't see it. Or you have to be willfully ignorant. China has become America's great competitor or rival - and sometimes still partner - because they have grown way more than the US for decades. You have to if you are very small and very poor, like China was, and you want to catch up. Before COVID, and before master Xi, everyone thought China would actually surpass the US economically. Now it's not clear that will ever happen. Why? because their growth has slowed down. Suddenly Master Xi wants to go to San Francisco and meet with US capitalists. Wonder why? Maybe he needs the US and Europe and Asia's vibrant capitalist democracies more than he thought. Your own chart proves that Russia is at best stuck and stagnating. As I said above, Putin's "good years" were in the Naughts. Back then Americans and Europeans thought maybe Russia is now a partner. Maybe we all invest and grow together. That's part of why Russia grew significantly faster than the US in almost every year of Putin's first decade, up until the global financial crisis. Your own chart confirms that. I agree. Since 2012 or so, as your chart shows, the US has grown either faster or at the same rate as Russia every year. And that is AFTER Putin decided in order to grow your country had to create an economic growth plan based on genocide and turning Russians into fertilizer. You are fucked. You can't outgrow us. Even if I assume every Russian agrees that the best way to grow is to kill and rape and torture and be a global pariah and turn yourselves into fertilizer, that is self-evidently not a good growth plan. You might try electric cars. But that's China. You might try AI. But that's the US. Russians have genocide and becoming fertilizer. You haven't tried to deny any of my facts, because you can't. That World Bank chart I'll post again is consistent with your point: that the US and Russia have been growing at roughly the same pace since about 2017. You do realize that's why you're fucked, right? Or are you just bad at math? One, unlike China, you can never catch up. Because, at best, if you all turn yourselves into fertilizer and are very good at genocide, maybe you can grow as fast as the US. China has grown faster than the US, which that chart obscures. Russia is not growing faster than the US, and can't. Second, even if you can grow as fast as the US by turning yourselves into fertilizer, every single year the US still becomes way more bigger and powerful than Russia. Because we grew a lot more in absolute terms. This is why Murderous Vlad had to put together a wartime budget that is unstainable. He has to pray that Trump wins and Europe bows down. Because that budget is unsustainable. That's what the RUSSIAN media says. But that's the money it takes to make all those weapons for Vlad's genocide. Vlad is doing everything he can to try to make or buy enough weapons to dominate Ukraine. And he can't. Right now, the best he can do is a stalemate. Of a much smaller and weaker country. The US could send 5 or 10 times as much military aid as we will likely eventually send this year. The problem for the US is internal politics (Trump wanting to bow down to Putin) and Biden and Europe not wanting to start a nuclear war with a genocidal sadist. You really don't get that this dooms you, economically and militarily and technologically. Even if you can grow as much as the US by genocide and turning yourselves into fertilizer, you're still becoming smaller and weaker compared to the US in absolute terms every year. That's why the US won the Cold War with the USSR, as I said above. Compared to the Cold War and the USSR, this is not even a fair fight. You are fucked. Unless Master Xi for some reason decides he loves his murderous pit bull more than he loves being part of a thriving global economy. I would not bet on that, if I were you. is that even serious? Really? Or have you now turned to comedy because you have no facts and no argument? Yes, Vlad is a desperate genocidal sadist who is manipulating currency and interest rates. And basically bribing people with money he doesn't have to try to get them to accept genocide and turning poor Russians into fertilizer. And you are telling us, in your own words, that you accept genocide. You hope that Vlad's genocide works and you can kill as many Ukrainians as it takes. Are you also good with Russian soldiers raping women and children? The torture? The stealing of children? Or just the genocide? Some economy! Russia is a sorry failing mess compared to the US. People here are bitching and moaning about 3 % inflation. That chart above is the most recent I could find. But the most recent number I got is 7.5 % inflation in Russia in November 2023. It's gong up, not down. Investors and banks and corporations in the US can't wait for the 5.5 % federal funds rate to start going down. But everyone agrees it has peaked. In Russia the most recent benchmark rate is now 16 %, I believe And growing. Oh. Business bankruptcies are growing very rapidly, too. Murderous Vlad could not keep a bankruptcy moratorium in place forever. When you destroy your economic base, other than your genocide economy, and turn your own people into fertilizer, at some point that catches up with you. You think this is a winning economic plan? This is a fucking nightmare. This is why your best and brightest young people are going any fucking place in the world to live - other than Russia. If Russia breaks up, like many experts think it will in the next decade, this is why. You are fucked. And you deserve to be, because you are supporting genocide.

I want to address that alone, and make it personal. You do realize you are advocating genocide, @Moses, right? This is sick, @Moses. You are advocating genocide. It won't work, of course. More important, it is sick. And wrong. You do realize that, don't you? This is exactly why I don't view Russians as victims of Putin. At the very least, you are being willfully ignorant and just going along for the ride. You confirm it in every post. But especially this one. You don't see genocide. You don't hear genocide. You don't speak genocide. Neither does Vlad. And yet, genocide exists. And you are condoning it. In writing above. You're saying let's just kill as many Ukrainians as it takes. Which is, as you correctly point out, what Bibi Netanyahu is doing right now in Gaza. And the numbers of civilians are roughly the same. Your genocidal sadist has killed far more Ukrainian men who are soldiers than Bibi has killed Hamas. But you've probably killed roughly the same number of innocent women and children. Tens of thousands and counting. I think "genocide" is the right word for it. Vlad is doing it in Ukraine. Bibi is doing it in Gaza. They are both genocidal sadists who are leading us toward war and away from peace. And have been as long as they are in power. So now I'll say this as American, about not advocating genocide. Israel is a huge moral and political mess. As a nation, it is on its way to being a hated pariah. including by my party, the Democratic Party. Young Americans of every race will increasingly say Israelis are those White people who like apartheid, and like genocide. They are saying it now. It saddens me. But I understand it. Israel was different when I was their age. Maybe this will actually be why Biden loses Michigan, and the election. But everyone knows it's complicated. Hamas did attack innocent Israelis and burn Jewish babies alive. Israel, like Russia and Ukraine, has the right to defend itself from from the most brutal and sadistic attack. Electing Trump won't be good news for Palestinians. It will be good news for Bibi The Butcher. Like I said, it is a huge moral and political mess. But one thing most Americans agree on is that genocide is not the answer. This is why genocide promoters like you, @Moses, have to be willfully ignorant. Hamas actually is Hitler. They are advocating the genocide of an entire nation and people. I imagine many Russians have to believe Ukraine is a Nazi nation run by a democratically elected Jew. It makes no fucking sense. It would be comic, if it were not tragic. It is ironic that a Jewish comedian is now the leader of the tragic nation that has to deal with Russia's genocidal monster. But there is no question who started this war, and why. Vlad started the war. Ukraine did not burn Russian babies alive. Vlad is a genocidal sadist. He said, in writing, that Ukraine is mine. And I will take it by force, if needed. No matter how many men, women, and children I need to kill. That's genocide. You just said, in writing, you support it. We'll just kill as many Ukrainians as it takes. That is sick. I know about this personally. There were plenty of Americans who wanted to go as far as nuking Iraq. Somehow, in their sick minds, they could even argue that for the sake of helping Iraq we have to nuke Iraqi men, women, and children. It's really for their own good. It's just sick. But I assure you I had conversations with those Americans, and told them it was sick. So I don't feel at all like a hypocrite telling you that you are sick. There's a good reason the US did not nuke Iraq. It would have made America a pariah. And it would not have worked. One of my Republican friends at the same said that he supported going to war in Iraq, but not what W. was going to do. I asked him what he meant. He said W. would put US boots on the ground, and it would eventually fail. He was right. I said what do you think we should do instead? He said, "Bomb the fuck out of Iraq." I asked, "What if we bomb the fuck out of Iraq, and something even worse rises from the ashes?" He said, "That's easy. We bomb the fuck out of Iraq again." There's a word for this. GENOCIDE. I was also right, by the way. What rose out of the ashes of the US military quagmire in Iraq was ISIS. Which was worse. I repeat that conversation a lot. Because my Republican friend and I, in a five minute conversation, accurately predicted over a decade of tragedy and genocide. The US was the midwife of ISIS in Iraq. It was a disaster for the US, and still is. It also helped birth Trump's isolationism. I'll give that much to Trump. He wants to ignore the rest of the world, and be selfish. Which is better than invading and bombing the world. Now Russia is having its global genocide moment. The happy news, to me, is that Russia's genocide is not birthing a new ISIS. Although, it kind of is. If every Ukrainian could slit the throat of every man, woman, and child in Russia, and get away with it, they probably would. That is what genocide does to people. They hate you. Every poll says Ukrainians are more united than ever in wanting to beat Russia. So is every Pole. And every Swede. You are fucked. Millions of Ukrainians would love nothing more than to tie you up and slit your throat, @Moses. I'm being brutal. But brutally honest. What did you expect? You are advocating genocide. Why should every man, woman, and child in Ukraine not want to tie you up and slit your throat? That is what Vlad has created. That is what you are advocating. You call this winning? You are wrong. This is sickness. This is evil. I am 1000 % aware of what my country did in Iraq. I was passionately opposed. Over half the Democrats elected in the US House voted against it. Nancy Pelosi, my US Rep at the time, voted against it. I knew several US Senators personally at the time. They voted against it. Here's one: It was a surprisingly understated speech. But, at the time, to be against the Iraq War was to be unpatriotic, and un-American, to many. And he was running for re-election. The key line, "this could be a very costly mistake," looks like a massive understatement in retrospect. That's the guy who, as a college professor, set my moral compass more than any other single human being. He could have given a passionate speech about genocide, as a Jew who had relatives die in the death camps. What he focused on instead was pragmatic. How many Americans will die? Are we making a big mistake? Google says there were 4,431 American deaths in Iraq. That's nothing compared to how many Russians are now fertilizer. You are easily headed to 100x that number, if Putin wants to keep turning Russians into fertilizer to try to win something he can call a victory. More genocide, and more dead Russians. You call this winning? The number of dead Russians in Ukraine is staggering compared to the number of dead Russians when the USSR invaded Afghanistan, a much weaker nation than Ukraine. With fewer allies than Ukraine. 15,000 Russians died in Afghanistan. Add a "0" and maybe that's how many Russians have died in Ukraine, to date. You call this winning? You think this won't end up like Afghanistan did? In some ways I hope you are right, for the sake of global peace. If it ends up like Afghanistan did, this will gradually destroy Russia, like it ended the Soviet Union. THAT would be a threat to world peace. You should stop advocating genocide. It is sick. It is wrong. But if you can't understand that, at least you should be able to look at what the US did in Iraq, in our great unipolar moment, when we were the most powerful military in the world, and understand that what you are advocating simply will not work. Happily, Ukraine will not birth a new ISIS. Ukraine will end up a democracy, and part of NATO. Russia is going to be the loser. If you can't see that, I genuinely feel sorry for you. Russia is a much weaker nation than the US was when we invaded Iraq, with lots of powerful allies. If you think you can get away with genocide, it is sick and wrong.

Absolutely! Thank you! You made all my points, @Moses. Russia is stagnating under Putin. There is no real growth. Look at your own chart. In 1989, using whatever "constant 2017 international $" are, it looks like the average person in China was at about $1,000 per capita. There was massive poverty. It was a poor country. The average Russian was at about $22,000 per capita, it looks like. Let's say, based on this measure, the average Russian was 20 times better off than the average Chinese. Between then and now, the average Chinese went from something like $1,000 to something like $16,000. We all know the story. Amazing growth. Something like 1 billion people in Asia - mostly Chinese - were lifted out of poverty and malnutrition. It's been a big part of the global success story. It's because of capitalism. And while it is primarily a Chinese success story, all the capital and investment from the US and Europe helped make it happen. A lot of disgruntled Trump voters in factory towns that are a shadow of their former selves would argue it worked out better for China than the US. I disagree. I think both nations won. I think the world won. Now let's talk about Russia, based on your chart. While China was growing by leaps and bounds, thanks to state capitalism, Russia went nowhere. Thanks to Vlad's state sadism. Which has now morphed into state genocide, and a state program of turning poor Russians into fertilizer while talented Russians get the fuck out of the mess and go anywhere else in the world they can. GDP per capita, based on your chart, went from maybe $22,000 to maybe $27,000. And the only way you can keep that now is through murder, rape, torture, genocide, and keeping your mouths shut and obeying while Vlad turns more and more Russians into fertilizer. And you think that is winning? Poor thing! On your chart, in 1989 the average Russian was maybe 20x better off than the average Chinese. Now they are maybe 25 % better off? 50 % better off? It shows China is making tremendous progress for its people. Vlad failed. His consolation prize is he gets to be Master Xi's pit bull. As long as he can competently bite, and kill. Which is questionable given all Vlad's failures - even at genocide. That's the first of the four charts I posted above. I did it, as I said above, to agree with your point. Our two charts are slightly different, but they mostly measure and say the same thing. On an individual level, there is no question the average Russian is better off economically than the day Putin came to power. I like your chart better. Because it leaves the US out and covers a longer term period. My chart focuses on Vlad's "good" years, the Naughts. Yours shows that there was a big decline in GDP per capita in the 90's. So there was a huge amount of growth in Russia from 2000 to the global financial crisis in 2008. Most of that, as your chart shows, was simply getting back to where you were before the USSR fell apart. But let's credit Vlad for that. Progress is progress. Even if it is just getting back to where you were. Since the GFC, Russia has stagnated. Your own chart shows it. The average Chinese, according to your chart, looks to be maybe 16x better off. The average Russian is no better off in the last 15 years or so. Again, based on YOUR chart. What you are really saying is that Russia survived. And at least things aren't getting worse, like in the 90's. Maybe. But that really depends. If you are the Russian being turned into fertilizer in Ukraine, or their wife or kids, things ain't so great. Maybe things are better if you are the Russian who gets to rape, torture, and kill Ukrainians so Russia can survive. I won't even try to debate about whether this is a political or military victory for Vlad. Because I think it clearly proved Vlad is weak. Russia is weak. And the Russian military are like Keystone Kops. One thing that is almost self-evident is that the supposedly great Russian army that failed miserably in Ukraine and has to turn its people into fertilizer to avoid losing is not about to roll their shitty tanks and raping and torturing Russian soldiers into Poland or Germany. But the other lesson that this once again shows is why both the US and USSR failed when they started military quagmires in Afghanistan. Ukraine is more powerful and bigger than Afghanistan. So if you are deluding yourself into thinking you're winning, go ahead. As this goes on Ukraine will be the one that kills you and wears you down. Vlad has scored some tactical wins. You'll probably keep Crimea in a decade. Or maybe Russia will fall apart in a decade, since Vlad is turning it into a global economic pariah. Either way, you are in denial of history. It always ends badly. It will in Ukraine. Check back with me in a decade. If Russia even exists then, in its current form. Vlad has won some battles this year. He gained whole kilometers of territory in Ukraine that are now a devastated mess. How? By turning lots of Russians into fertilizer. Again, that is what Russia is today. Russians rape. Russians torture. Russians kill. Russians commit genocide. Russians make weapons to kill themselves and kill Ukrainians, under your genocidal sadist. That is what Russia is. That is what Russians do. You have to do it, to survive. And to just keep things from getting worse economically. That's victory? What a fucking joke! Vlad's biggest victory, such as it is, is that both the US and Europe have deep political divisions. Which Vlad helped create, at the margin, and is trying to manipulate however he can. If America and Germany and Sweden (NATO's newest member) were run by dictators, we could just do shit like Vlad does. We can't. Trump seems to want dictatorship as much as democracy. So that helps Vlad. America will spend 2024 having a very deep and important debate about that. But I don't think Vlad is smart enough to win in Ukraine. Much less destroy global democracy. But he's trying. Now I'll add the US back in economically. That's the only chart I could find that compared the US, Russia, and China up to close to 2024, on an individual per capita basis Either the green or black line is Russia. The other is Kazakhstan. If we are talking about how well off individuals are, there is no question that America keeps growing at a level the average Russian or Chinese is nowhere near. Once you add in the US, it obscures the fact that the growth for individual Chinese has been amazing. Again, 1 billion people were lifted out of poverty and malnutrition. Whole metropolises and whole new industries that fuel the global economy came out of nowhere. Russia does have its gas, and its bombs. But the great global achievement of Russia right now is rape, torture, mass murder, and genocide. That is how you manage to survive and keep things from getting worse economically, while the rest of the world thrives. The US won the Cold War for lots of reasons. Some people like to emphasize a type of moral victory. Democracy always wins in the end. We had a better and freer system. Maybe. But in a colder and by the numbers way, the US had a bigger economy. We built more weapons. And - critically - the US was increasingly better at technology. The US is getting better and better still at many of the world's leading technological innovations. Vlad is getting better and better at figuring out how to kill Ukrainians, and turn Russians into fertilizer while his economy stagnates long term. If you can't project that out in terms of what it means for who wins militarily, you are in deep denial. Vlad obviously knows this. He is spending as much as he can on technologies of mass murder, in his desperate effort to make a sadistic and corrupt system work. He now has to threaten that he will nuke Europe or nuke the US if we resist him. Even the USSR was better than that. He's a sick fuck. If I were Russian I'd be worried what the sick fuck would do. (My job now is to worry about what Trump will do.) Vlad, not Trump and not Biden and not Xi, is the most likely person in the world to start a nuclear war today. He's practically bragging about how he could do it. He is a genocidal sadist. And you own him. And all the misery and death he creates. You are NOT winning.

Politico gave the shoes a big push today. I actually think it is a good way to bring America together. Fashion is always more fun thsn politics. Trump Released a Sneaker Line. Here’s How to Wear Them. Donald Trump is the least racist man in America. Just ask any Black (well, maybe not those Central Park Five guys), and they will tell you he has done more to promote racial healing than MLK, John Lewis, and for sure Kamala Harris. Everyone says he does the best racial healing. The media gives him the best grades for racial healing. So, yeah. MAGA folk as 80's rapper. I love it. And the MAGA base, which is mostly working class Blacks, obviously will too. Even has a touch of Ronald Reagan from the 1980s. It just screams to me, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall." Then again, a lot of the MAGA folk are snobs. High end sort of this people. Let's take Tim Scott, if he's Veep. So this adds some class: That whole hair thing may be a problem for Tim. But he's a cutie. It would work with his distinguished bald look. Now, there is that small minority of the MAGA base that is White. And as open-minded and multi-cultural as they are, this may work better for them: it even has that whole prison rape chic thing going on. It would be perfect!

Shame on you. I think they make a lovely couple. One is a cocksucker, and another is an asshole. The sex should be awesome.

Good point. The history of leaders who served their nation into their 70's, 80's and even 90's is a trail of disaster. Queen of England until age 96 Konrad Adenauer. German Chancellor. Served 14 years until 87. Died at 91. Shimon Peres, President of Israel for 7 years, until aged 91. Died age 93. Yuri Andropov. General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Died while serving for 15 months until his death at 69. Konstantin Chernenko, Succeeded Andropov as General Secretary of the Soviet Union. Died while serving for about a year at age 73. I dunno @Moses. Maybe Russian leaders are just unlucky. England loved their Queen, and misses her. She never missed a beat. (Or, if she did, it was when Di died when the Queen was in her early 70's.) Adenauer cheated fate. But he did have to take naps in the afternoon by the end of his long run. He was always going to be the model for how it worked for Biden. Or not. So far, Biden has held up better than Andropov. Or Chernenko. But, given your experience, I can see why you would say 69 is too old to lead Russia. Or 73. How old is Vlad, by the way? 😉 Granted. Joe Biden is no Ronald Reagan, when it comes to public speaking. I think Joe Biden is Ronald Reagan, when it comes to standing up to the USSR or Russia. I don't think "I will not bow down" to Putin will work out badly for Biden. Americans agree with Biden. Bowing down to Putin is unacceptable. Btw, I kept thinking watching the speech how young and vibrant Kamala looks. And there is something about the idea of having a First Gentleman that I really like. Doug is classy. However it plays out for Biden's health, I won't be unhappy if she is the next US leader to stand behind that podium.

Four charts that tell the same story from two different perspectives: That one supports your argument. There is clearly economic improvement since Vlad took over. I'd argue it's the opposite of what you said. It's not that individuals give something up for the collective nation to be better. It's that individuals are okay with Russia becoming a mess and a pariah. Because at least their own lives are a little better. Not sure the families of all the Russians being turned into fertilizer in Ukraine feel that way, though. Let's have a Russian TV show where they get to speak honestly. You keep wanting to bring up 1945. If the US fucked up, I think the big fuck up was the 1990's. I don't blame Russians for associating the 1990's with chaos, and democracy with bad times. Whether the 1990's in Russia was really democracy is a huge debate. Russians have told me that even if there had been a global Marshall Plan for Russia in the 1990s, it never would have worked under Yeltsin or Putin and the current corrupt system. I don't know. But the US and Europe didn't even try. We took the victory lap, extended the borders of NATO, and then invaded Iraq. That was our big fuck up, in my mind. And we have paid a huge price for it. But, again, once Putin took over, Russians I have spoken with say this course was set. Historians will debate that forever. But whatever price the US paid for our fuck ups, it is not anything like the price Russians have paid. Trends in Chinese and Russian GDP growth since 1989 (in constant $US million) That last chart is the share of the global economy each country has. Translation: Russia doesn't matter. In the global economy, you're an afterthought. If India and China can get cheap gas from you, and if you can buy bullets and drones from Krazy Kim and Iran so you can kill and rape Ukrainians, and if Ukraine can get cheap fertilizer from you by turning your people into grass, that is just what Russia is in the world today. Thank Putin for that. Some leader! What an economy! Now everybody thinks of him as the guy who will nuke us if he gets pissed off at us stopping his rape and genocide. What a guy! Of course, those bottom three images are distortions, based on population. China has so many more people than either Russia or the US. But that's the whole point. All those US and European corporations that wanted into China for its cheap labor and markets were not wrong. It is the ultimate story of how global capitalism won. It lifted a billion people out of poverty and hunger. Even if it didn't work out quite as the US hoped, in terms of democracy, I am proud of what the US and China did. (The Americans who live in factory towns and lost their jobs are not.) This is not a not a bad outcome for China, or the US, or the nations of Asia. As long as we can keep the peace, and stay in guard rails as we compete. Russia is the geopolitical loser. You used to be #2. Never economically. But you were a rival superpower. Now you're an afterthought. The only good thing about Russia invading Ukraine is it almost certainly has made it clear to China that invading Taiwan would be an economic, political, and military disaster. Which is pretty much what the US proved to itself by invading Iraq. The US had its unipolar moment, and totally fucked it up in Iraq. Lesson: it's probably better for peace to have a multipolar world. I'd rather have China than Russia as a global competitor (or partner) any day of the week. They have proven, as those charts show, they can grow an economy. They can build electric cars and solar panels and innovative new technologies. Putin proves every day he can steal money. And start wars. And murder opponents. And let his soldiers kill and rape and torture and depopulate countries before they are turned into fertilizer. No one in the world wants more of that. There used to be a good argument (in the US, John Mearsheimer still makes it, Henry Kissinger used to) that we should be aligning with Russia to balance against China. Ukraine ended that idea for the rest of Putin's reign. And probably the rest of our lifetimes. Americans want nothing to do with Russia. The ones who support Trump aren't pro-Russia. They are pro-isolation. And that has never won, for long at least, in US history. It's a reason Biden will likely win. When Americans are reminded of Ronald Reagan's doctrine of defending allies (no surprise Crazy Biden quoted Reagan last night, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall"), 2 in 3 want to send weapons to Ukraine. Even many of the Republicans blocking the aid want to send it, and know it is really a short term political fight in the US. So it's a good year for Vlad. He'll win his fake election. He killed Navalny for good. Tucker came all the way to Russia to suck his cock and fawn over him. His economy grew a little. There are plenty of Russians, so far, to send to Ukraine to become fertilizer. And people don't care that the rest of the world looks down on you. You can call that a tactical victory if you want. Woo hoo! But if you are not clear the Putin lost the economic, political, and military war a long time ago, and Ukraine is one of the results of that loss, you're just not clear about history. China won. The US won. Sorry. I don't think Russia won. Vlad just gets to be Master Xi's pit bull. If he can actually manage to bite and kill. Vlad's getting up there in years, too. Desperate genocidal sadists do desperate things That's the chapter we are in now. We really don't know how it ends. But I think we do know however it ends, it won't be good for Russia. It's not really good for Russia right now. I suspect most Russians know that, in addition to all the Russians who fled. But they tolerate it since they have no choice in the matter.

We completely agree on this one. Putin doesn't speak about genocide. Or mass murder. Or sadism. Or cruelty. Or putting a bullet in your head. Or poisoning you. Or turning you into fertilizer. He just does it.

Granted, Biden is a mental catastrophe. But when I looked up the Atlantic Council's most recent projection of what the world looks like ten years out, here is what "experts" said about whether the US will be the dominant power in each of these areas in 2034: US is world's dominant military power in a decade: 81 % say yes in 2023, up from 71 % in 2022. US is world's dominant power in technological innovation in a decade: 63 % say yes in 2023, up from 54 % in 2022. US is world's dominant economic power in a decade: 52 % say yes, up from 33 % in 2022. US is world's dominant diplomatic power in a decade: 32 % say yes, up from 31 % in 2022. I'm so sorry. Nobody thinks Russia will be the world's dominant military, economic, diplomatic, or technological power in a decade. Many think Russia will break up by then. So sorry. But look on the bright side. You'll still be the best at turning your people into fertilizer. So we know for sure Biden will not be POTUS, or even alive, in a decade. So maybe this has nothing to do with Biden. Seeing as how he is a mental catastrophe. But it is interesting that we call out Vlad for genocide, and back Ukraine, and revitalize a global coalition with a good purpose. And suddenly people think the US will be even stronger militarily long term. We start building out cutting edge new technologies with federal subsidies. And suddenly people think the US may actually still be the world's economic and technological leader in a decade. But that has NOTHING to do with Biden, right? Of course, most of those people making projections are US or European experts. So you could argue they are biased. But they made the same less optimistic (about the US) projections in 2022. Maybe Biden isn't such a catastrophe after all. Please ask Vlad and Tucker for us. They are always right about everything.

Thank you for being so kind, @Moses. But obviously it's not my glasses. It's my dementia. 🤪 Oh, and by the way. Your English is great, as a second language. But it's "your" glasses.

Again, please try to stay in the 21st century. And let's focus on the mass murder and genocide happening right now. If you want to call out Israel, good for you. Would you like to be fertilizer, @Moses? Or maybe shot in the head? Or fall out a window? Or fly in an airplane that happens to explode? Because if you don't mind taking one for the anti-genocide team, I have a great idea. Go on Russian TV and pretend you are Michael Moore. You of course know Russia better than me. But I'm guessing you would not be allowed on Russian TV to say things like that. And, if you somehow did, prison time would be the kindest way Vlad dealt with it. Or maybe he just has your brains blown out in some alleyway or bridge. But that's exactly the point. We do fight about these things in the US. we had huge fights about Iraq. One nice thing about Trump is he has moved many Americans, especially Republicans, away from the idea of invading a country just because it is there. US soldiers did not rape Iraqi women and children. They did torture some terrorists. The public outcry against it, which helped Obama defeat W in 2008, is well documented. But before we even get there, we have to talk about the mass public opposition to starting the Iraq War in the first place. I know that one well. I was emphatically opposed. My college professor and community organizing mentor, Paul Wellstone, a Jew and later a US Senator, was the only incumbent US Senator running for re-election in 2002 to vote against the war. Way too many Democrats, in Biden, lined up behind W in supporting that war. But there was a very strong opposition to the Iraq war. The US House approved it 2 to 1. But as a Democrat at least I can say that Democrats voted AGAINST that war 126 to 81. Had Democrats been in charge, the Iraq War never would have happened. We didn't know that when W. won the election in 2000 by a hanging chad! We lost. We lost both the fight to prevent the war, and the war itself. So, yeah, the US fucked up. That was then. This is now. Are you gonna go on Russian TV and tell Putin to stop the current genocide? Can you tell us about all the things happening in Russia from opponents of the genocide in Ukraine? Other than the fact that they are getting the fuck out of Russia, before Vlad jails them or turns them into fertilizer? Come on, @Moses. Have some balls, like Michael Moore and Paul Wellstone. Go on Russian TV and call out your genocidal monster leader for the genocide, rape, torture, and mass murder of Ukrainian men, women, and children. And tell him to stop turning hundreds of thousands of his own people into fertilizer. Again, have to point out a very important difference. The US invasion of Iraq was an unprovoked attack, in my mind. But the US did not kill "hundreds of thousands" of Iraqis. One of many reasons that war was a predictable disaster is that it would = and did - unleash a religious and sectarian bloodbath between Iraqis, who tortured and killed each other. You can blame the US for starting that. But it was Iraqis killing each other. That's not happening in Ukraine. All those dead Ukrainian men, women, and children were killed, raped, and/or tortured by Russian soldiers. But you keep confirming my point. You keep bringing up what the US did in 1945 or 1968 or 2022 to avoid the genocidal mass murder your genocidal sadist is conducting right now. The polls suggest most Russians think exactly like you. They are in denial about the truth. Thanks to Vlad's propaganda. Or worse. You support and respect Putin and his sadism and genocide.

Actually, yes! For sure. Bibi Netanyahu fits the bill as a genocidal sadist. There you have it. Two mass murdering genocidal sadists. Soul mates. If you count soldiers, Murderous Vlad has been a much more efficient genocidal sadist than Bibi The Butcher. I'll use Zelenskyy's numbers, which I have no way to verify. He claims 180,000 dead Russian soldiers, as opposed to 30,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers. Whatever number you want to use, Bibi The Butcher just doesn't measure up to the sheer sadism and mass murder of your genocidal sadist. Is it actually GENOCIDE when Vlad turns hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer? Probably not. That's just mass murder and cruelty. And a sadistic kleptocrat who wants his power and money. When we get to women and children, I'd just say Murderous Vlad and Bibi The Butcher are deeply evil and sadistic men. They deserve to be chained together and burn in hell forever. The UN said last year that over 10,000 civilians were killed by Russians in Ukraine. Many were tortured and raped. But those are based on verified numbers that everyone using them keeps saying is lowball. In Gaza the number is now well over 30,000, of which about 2 in 3 are women and children. Although those come from Hamas, and you can make an argument that Hamas inflates them. Either way, it is a vicious sadistic bloodbath. And we can thank Murderous Vlad and Bibi The Butcher for it. I can say this without being shot in the head or turned into fertilizer. Russians can't. The other difference is that I never read a story about how Ukrainians invaded Russia and killed 1200 or so of you. Including whole families where they burned babies alive. All the evil and sick sadism is being conducted by Vlad's Russian soldiers. Who rape and torture women and children. So Israel, like the US after 9/11, at least has the legitimate argument of self defense. Vlad's argument is he unleashed genocide in Ukraine to protect a country with a Jewish President from Nazis. Whatever! He's an evil, sick man. As far as "Genocide Joe" goes, a few points. First, in the US you can call Biden "Genocide Joe" and not end up being shot in the head, or poisoned, or fertilizer. You can't do that in Russia. You can pretend you are Rashida Tlaib and go organize a protest against Murderous Vlad and you'll go to prison. Or be turned into grass that cows shit on. Second, most of the world agrees that Israel has a right to defend itself from a terrorist group that wants Israel, and Jews, to no longer exist. And they just proved it with a vicious attack. Third, regardless, I'm one of the apparent majority among Democrats who feel Bibi the Butcher has gone way too far. Israel is quickly becoming Apartheid World in the eyes of many Democrats. And Jews, or Israeli Jews, are now The Genocide People in the eyes of a relatively small minority of left wing progressives. We can have an honest debate about it in the US. You can't in Russia. If Biden loses in 2024, all the evidence and polls are that the most likely reason is that he is seen as "Genocide Joe". And some relatively small number of do gooders and peaceniks he desperately needs to win just won't vote for him, on principle. I don't think it will happen. In part because everybody with a brain knows Trump would be far more tolerant of Bibi The Butcher slaughtering hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Palestinians. But I totally agree with you this is a big problem for the US, and the world. But you don't have that problem. Vlad will win. He just assassinated his main opponent. And Vlad won't even let people go to a funeral. He's an evil, sick man. There is no equivalent debate, or honesty, in Russia. @unicorn made a good case that there can't be, because all or most Russians are victims. I am a bit less sympathetic. What you express here is what a majority of Russians say in polls. You support Putin, and his sadism and mass murder and genocide. You confirm your support every time you post.

No. Buildings are not propaganda. Your genocidal sadist killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians. The UN and Human Rights groups around the world decry the mass murder, torture, rape, cruelty, and sadism that your genocidal monster unleashed. Is any of THAT not clear to you? It has nothing to do with buildings. Either you understand sadism and mass murder, or you don't. You don't. That is the propaganda. Again, I don't blame you. No one wants a bullet in their head. Or poison in their body. Or to be turned into fertilizer. Which is Vlad's way of shutting people up and conducting genocide. Saying there are now new buildings where there was mass murder, genocide, rape, torture, cruelty and sadism, and so therefore nothing ever happened, would be like saying, "Look! We had a Black US President, who was a Democrat. Look! Trump may choose a Black Republican US Senator as his Veep. Therefore, the US does not have a race problem and never did. Slavery never existed. There is no racism." And there are deniers in the US who push it that far. You want to deny Vlad's genocide, mass murder, rape, torture, cruelty, and sadism. I get it.

Exactly. Vlad's propaganda about his genocide and mass murder.

Proves my point. Your genocidal sadist has you brainwashed. Btw, 9 out of 10 doctors surveyed saying being brainwashed is better than being turned into fertilizer. You made a good choice. UN rights chief deplores Ukraine death toll one year after Russian invasion Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer.

I knew that would give you a rise, buddy. I put it in there just for you. Trolls are just way too predictable!

Do you yourself observe reality? About how your genocidal sadist has made Russia the pariah of the world? Oh! But he is building a wonderful economy. So wonderful that, increasingly, its chief function is to kill, commit genocide, and turn its own people into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Oh, and let's not forget about oppressing The Gays. Perverts! Oh, wait. My bad. I forgot. The US is the genocidal monster and I am just brainwashed by the US genocidal media. Everyone else loves Russia. Especially Master Xi. And let's not forget Bangladesh! How Is Russia Viewed Around The World. Master Xi loves his murderous pit bull. Master Xi will love his murderous pit bull as long as he can get cheap oil and gas and he behaves. Master Xi loves peace and hates genocide and being bad to children. But, hey. When you own a murderous sadistic pit bull, whadaya gonna do? Problem is Master Xi is gradually turning the vibrant and growing economy he took over a long time ago into a stagnant mess. So Master Xi needs the West and the capitalist world. Who could have seen that coming? Russia is an asterisk in the global economy, and Master Xi knows that. And the capitalist world thinks Master Xi's murderous sadistic pit bull needs to be put down. Frankly, since you and I can be blunt with each other, Master Xi has to be pretty fucking unhappy with his murderous pit bull. Public appearances aside, of course. The Atlantic Council's survey of experts shows the percentage thinking China will try to take Taiwan by force in the next decade went from 71 % last year to 50 % this year. Meanwhile, the percent who think the US will be the world's dominant economic power in 2034 went from 33 % in 2022 to 52 % in 2023. Obviously, Dementia Joe Biden (not to mention Silicon Valley and capitalism) is bad for America! Here's what the Atlantic Council says: Ya think? These think tanks are polite. So they didn't bring up the part about how Vlad processes his own people into fertilizer. So anybody who is not the victim of propaganda can see where this is going in the long term. It does not surprise me in the least that these futurists who predict big global changes say the most likely disruption in the next decade is not nuclear war. Or the end of democracy. It's the end of Russia. Under the weight or your sadistic genocidal leader. Who survives by turning Russians into fertilizer, killing Ukrainians, and stealing and raping children. Woo hoo!. But, hey, why should I believe anything that does not come out of the mouths of either a murderous genocidal monster, or the desperate media lapdog who is trying to maintain a career after he was fired? Vlad and Tucker give me all the truth I need. it just doesn't get truer than that!

Could we try to keep this in the 21st Century? I know it hasn't worked so well for the USSR. Or Vlad. But blame that on your genocidal sadist, who just threatened to nuke Europe.

Biden's chances of winning in 2020 just went up significantly. Why? Because The Cult just made sure that a younger and smarter and newer candidate, who would have had a far easier time beating Biden, was instead sacrificed to The Cult. Haley did not follow Cult rules (ignore facts and reality) or Cult dogma (worship Donald Trump and everything he does). For that of course she had to be sacrificed. Bye, Nikki. We won't miss you. Fucking disloyal bitch! Of course you deserved to die. There is every indication that all those centrist suburban women who voted for Haley yesterday will have a very hard time voting for Trump in November. But The Cult doesn't care. Because they don't believe it. Ask @EmmetK. How could anyone who is not a left wing sociopath not adore Donald Trump??? He's going to win in a landslide! Facts just don't matter. Although, these facts may matter a bit. Biden’s plan for Trump: Bury him with campaign cash A massive avalanche of spending is about to come the former president’s way. The silence of the Biden campaign has been deafening so far. Although Politico now confirms what was a good guess, anyway. They were just holding their fire until Trump was a done deal. Now their job is to make him a dead deal. It won't be particularly hard. And that's not quite true. Team Biden did work up a compromise bipartisan immigration deal. It's not clear Biden gets any points for it, or will. The polls suggest both sides think they are all just politicians playing political games. At the very least, I think it eliminates the idea that Biden is an uncompromising leftist. He did try to compromise. Trump was against it. That may not help Biden. But it won't hurt him with centrists and Independents. As a Democrat who hates money in politics, there is some part of me that says: this is wrong, and it won't work. But it probably will work. As the article notes, we have been there and done this before, recently. Both W. in 2004 and Obama in 2012 are examples where unopposed incumbents used their incumbency and cash to paint their opponents as a villian. Or a windsurfing waffler. Is this wrong? One time recently that incumbency didn't work was 2020, when Trump lost. Why? Because he was a chaotic mess, even before Jan. 6th and all the lawsuits and judgments. So, no. I don't think it's wrong. I'm not sure Kerry or Romney really deserved the treatment they got. But that is politics. And, basically, it worked because their own words and history were used against them. How much easier could it be with Trump? The problem will be choosing among Trump's worst words and actions. Will it be the lies? The pussy grabbing? The Putin ass kissing? The insurrection? The cop beatings? The destruction of civil debate and democracy? Lindsey Graham was on CNN last night telling Dana Bash that Trump will win because he will make this an issue-oriented campaign. And he has the issues on his side. Nice fantasy, Lindsey. If you listened to Trump's speech, the fantasy is that a horrible invasion of mass murdering thugs from all the worst shitholes in the world is happening IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD RIGHT NOW! LOCK YOUR DOORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe that is right wing porn for some people. But will it stick? Is Biden inviting people from all over the world to murder innocent Americans? Nah. Not really. The FBI says the murder rate was down 6 % in 2022, the most recent year the FBI put out data for. The Council of Criminal Justice says it went down 10 % more in 2023 in 32 study cities. In other words, elect More Murder Trump if you want more murder. When Biden goes after Trump for having more murders (but fewer facts) on his watch, that may change how people feel about the right wing rhetoric. Unless people feel every right white winger should be given a free AR-15. Which is why the murder spiked under Trump in the first place. More guns. We don't even have to guess about this. More Murder Kevin McCarthy tried to pose in photos with cops and use crime to create a massive red wave. At best he created a whimper. Why didn't it work? He comes from one of the murder capitals of California. Far more murder in More Murder Kevin's city than in SF or LA. Facts do matter, most of the time. If you want more walls, more murder, and more guns, VOTE TRUMP! As a bonus, he'll cut taxes for billionaires again and take your health care and abortion away!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I could of course go on and on. But there clearly is a disconnect right now between how much people think Biden and his economy sucks, and how much people long for the good old days of Trump. WHICH IS OF COURSE WHY THEY DIDN'T APPROVE OF HIM FRM 2017 to 2020, AND FIRED HIS ASS THE FIRST CHANCE THEY GOT. The comfortable but fantasy nostalgia about Benevolent Donald won't stick when Biden starts to remind people of the specific reasons he won 51 % of the vote in 2020. People do know these things, after all. It always helps when you have facts and reality on your side. Bye, Donald. We won't miss you.

You should visit your doctor. Advocating nuclear war because the rest of the world is doing well but your sadist wants his genocide is for sure demonstrating problems with your mental health. But, frankly, I don't care about your personal mental problems, @Moses. Or your sadist thug's oppression of Gays like you. You can live with your sadistic homophobe for as long as you want. Since you have no choice, anyway. What concerns me is the genocide, and the political problems your sadistic genocidal war monger is creating for the rest of the world. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer. Genocidal. Sadist. Mass murderer.

Yup. You are in The Cult. In the eyes of The Cult, most Americans are sick and wrong. Is that what you believe, @EmmetK? That most Americans are sick? What did facts do to you? Why do you hate facts? Majority Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Federal Criminal Charges Linked To 2020 Election Nearly two-thirds of Americans think Jan. 6 charges against Trump are serious 51% of voters say convicting Trump of a ‘serious crime’ would be a ‘fair outcome’ And. from Bloomberg, who you don't think is fake news: Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous Again, the headline doesn't say it. But the overwhelming majority of voters who are not in The Cult say Trump is too old, too. By killing Nikki Haley, you just killed the candidate more likely to be Biden. As a Democrat who knows Trump is dangerous and wrong, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. So does Joe.

Biden Can Still Win — If He Runs Like Harry Truman Great article. I'm surprised there haven't been more stories like this. Although one thing that is true about most media talking heads, left of right, is they usually go for the lazy and obvious analysis. Trump leads! Biden should quit! So thinking about Harry Truman may be above their pay grade. There have been endless variations of "2024 is 1980, and Joe Biden is Jimmy Carter" in right wing media. God bless them and their denial of facts. Here's the most important fact about why Biden is more like Truman than Carter. In 1976, Carter beat Ford in part by saying the misery index was way too high. In 1980, Reagan slaughtered Carter by saying it was now even higher. Over 20 percent! Right now the misery index is 6.8 percent, which is one point LOWER than the last day Trump was POTUS. Trump may have a hard time explaining why the economy was great under him, after all. Repeal Obamacare, anyone? Cut taxes for billionaires, anyone? Wouldn't it be way more swell if our homes and stocks were worth less? That argument just won't hold up. Of course, Trump doesn't understand RISING net worth. His is phony. And about to go way down! The "economy sucks" argument probably holds up best for Gen Z and some Millennials. Who don't own homes or stocks, and are perhaps suffering relatively more from higher prices and interest rates. And they mostly hate Trump. They'll vote for Trump so that he can make abortion illegal everywhere, and make sure there can never ever be student debt relief? Give me a break! Biden does need to Give Em Hell. It turns out that when you are Giving People Hell, you do not look old and senile and feeble. So one good reason for Biden to model himself on a populist like Truman is he won't look so God damn old. Biden is in better shape than Truman, if we go by objective facts. In both 2024 and 1948, most people said they did not like the incumbent President. And Reason # 1 was higher prices. In 1946, inflation peaked at 20 % just as people were voting. The midterms were a wipeout for Democrats. Which fed the idea that Democrats will have their heads chopped off in 1948. In 2022 inflation peaked under 10 %, and was on the way down by November. Which may be why Democrats did better than expected. People of course don't like higher prices. It's not clear that will stick on election day, though. Just ask Harry Truman. That's especially true if Biden runs a campaign based on economic populism, like Truman did. Trump actually did cut taxes for billionaires like himself. Biden actually did say working class women with kids should get tax credits so their kids can afford to play team sports. It lifted half of the children in the US out of poverty for one year. People can understand the differences. In 1948 it was early days of The Cold War. And no one could predict who would win. In 2024 we have won the Cold War. And Biden wants to keep Russia contained and help Ukraine. Ronald Reagan would agree with Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. The majority of people agree we should help Ukraine and not be weak and feeble with Putin. I'll keep repeating that Biden has a "Genocide Joe" problem with his base. But as this article suggests, if and when Biden demands a ceasefire (Kamala Harris just did) that will help. Biden needs to start giving Bibi hell, too. If he wants to be POTUS in 2025. As a lifetime Israel supporter, I strongly believe it is better for Israel. Bibi is turning Israel into Apartheid Land, at best, and Genocide World, at worst. It is not in the interest of Israel or the US to keep sliding into that abyss. More dead Jews, anyone? The one thing that was a little bit of a revelation to me in that article above is that as much as Stein and West are a curse, they are also kind of a blessing. And Biden knows this, if anyone does. In 2020 he won mostly because he religiously clung to the middle of the road, as best he could. Yeah, 2020 was the most liberal Democratic primary ever. But Biden always wanted to be the guy closer to the center. He will do the same thing in Fall 2024. And it will probably work, too. He will attack his "dangerous" opponent on the right, Trump, and also his dangerous opponents on The Left. Election Polls; 1948 and Today That's a boring and long-winded look at 1948. But, hey. What am I if not boring and long-winded. And, often, correct. I do like facts. Lots of them. Truman's approval was 38 % around now in 1948. All year long Dewey was beating him in the polls. It's risky to compare 1948 polls to today. But at the time Gallup and Roper and a few others were viewed as very credible pollsters. To the point that the media at the time was saying we don't even need to hold an election. Dewey won. Kind of like @EmmetK insists Trump won already. Poor thing! There is one big difference between Trump and Dewey. Trump is seen as far more dangerous. I don't think @EmmetK and The Cult get that. Democrats like me are partisan. Duh! But we can see facts. The polls are telling us right now that most Democrats and Independents agree that both Biden and Trump are too old. independents and Democrats also agree that Trump is too dangerous. The Cult can't see that. That is, of course, because they are in The Cult. There is one fact in that 1948 poll that I think does suggest why Biden could lose. And why he needs to run a Harry Truman campaign. In 1948, by a 2 to 1 margin, people said the New Deal policies had done more good than harm. People may have voted less for Truman, and more for FDR. In 2024, as @EmmetK has correctly pointed out, Trump is winning the issues. So far. On the economy, people say (today) that Trump's policies did more good than harm. And Biden's policies have done more harm than good. And they don't mean lower prescription drug costs, or child tax credits. They mean higher prices. Biden needs to Give Trump Hell. Do we really want more tax cuts for the rich? Do we really want to try to repeal Obamacare, again? Do we really want more trade wars that will - what do tariffs do? - RAISE PRICES ON THE WORKING CLASS. Is it better to have more billionaires with lower tax bills and twice as many poor Hispanic children? Do we really want abortion illegal everywhere? Do we really want a government policy of climate change denial? Do we really want to let Bibi pave Gaza over with the blood of Palestinian women and children? Do we really want Murderous Vlad to win in Ukraine? Do we really want Trump governing from a prison cell, not the Oval Office? Or, when Congress does something Trump doesn't like, should he just send his thugs over to break some more cops' bones? That debate has not even begun. I won't be surprised if Biden and Democrats win it. Again. Like in 2018. And 2020. And 2022. And 2023. And so far in 2024.

I know. I know. I know. Facts! Fucking facts! You just hate them, don't you @EmmetK? Especially when they involve analysis. Granted, it is a very bad sign in March of an election year when a candidate is like five points behind. Facts are facts. Obviously they are going to lose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's take March 5, 2016 as an example. In the RCP average, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5 points. By late Match 2016, she had a 10 point lead. For a guy like @EmmetK, facts are facts! Hillary Clinton was obviously going to win. And she did win, in a landslide. Facts are facts. It's just that simple! It may help to compare those two charts, Mr. Facts. What's obvious visually is that in 2020 Biden was ahead of Trump the whole time. And in the end he won by 7 million votes. 2016 was a pretty close race. Most people did not think that way at the time. A lot of people thought of course Trump couldn't win. But at least in retrospect if you look at the polls there were lots of times when Trump was close - like within 2 or 3 points - and even a teeny bit ahead. What no one really imagined well enough is that Clinton could win the popular vote by millions of votes, but lose the electoral college by hundreds of thousands of votes. That's where we are right now. What should be visually obvious even to you, @EmmetK, is that this is a very close race. Much closer than either 2020 or 2016. But, hey. I get it. You're in The Cult. The Cult just sends money to Trump and repeats his lies and bullshit. The Cult is NOT supposed to think. Facts suck, huh? But if you think having a 10 point lead in March wins you the election in November, go ask Hillary Clinton about it. The polls are saying correctly that Biden has an age problem. And an economy problem. And an immigration problem. And especially an Israel/"Genocide Joe" problem. There is no question that Trump opened up a lead when US bombs were being used to kill tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children, with Biden's tacit okay. But I'm with Trump on one thing. Trump actually wrote a note to Allan Lichtman saying, "Good call" when he predicted Trump would win in 2016. I'm guessing Trump did no such thing when Lichtman predicted Trump would lose in 2020. Point is that Lichtman has been stunningly correct that people ultimately vote on fundamentals, not polls. People are not stupid. (Well, there is The Cult). So they don't like Biden's age. And they don't like higher prices. And they want a less open border. And young voters and Independents who are turning against Biden in the last few months overwhelmingly want a Gaza cease fire. None of that means Biden is going to lose. Let alone in a landslide. That is just you, The Cult, and an aversion to facts, @EmmetK. What did facts do to you? Here's a few other facts in that poll that The Cult really needs to overlook. Trump is also too old, according to most voters. And, unlike Biden, he is "dangerous" to most voters. Right now what people are saying about Biden is mostly, "He's old." Right now what people are saying about Trump is mostly, "He's winning." Don't count on that to stick when the fight gets underway. People may focus more on how and why Trump is dangerous. Speaking of Trump sweeping those primaries and winning, did you notice how the Fox News (not fake news!) poll said in a general election today Haley would beat Biden by 8 points, whereas Trump would beat Biden by 2 points? That's definitely not good news for Biden. But it is not great news for Trump, either. Thanks to people like you, @EmmetK, The Cult is beating to death a younger candidate who would have a much better chance of beating Biden, based on every poll out there. When it comes to Biden and Trump, though, most people (but not The Cult) agree both men are too old to be POTUS. Biden is not senile, and he is a realist. I'm 1000 % sure he'd rather run against Trump than Haley. So what The Cult just accomplished is taking out a candidate who would have a much better shot at taking out Biden. Woo hoo! No one ever accused you of being a genius, @EmmetKdid they? Meanwhile, there are ZERO polls showing [name a Democrat other than Biden] would do better against Trump than Biden. The Cult, and the lazy media, have this weird conspiracy fantasy that somehow Democrats will replace Biden with Michelle Obama or Kamala Harris or some Black woman The Cult despises. But that is all Cult weirdness, with a tinge of racism. It has nothing to do with facts. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Why are you having such problems with facts? Yes. Biden is old. So is Trump. You really don't get why a majority of Americans see Trump and The Cult as dangerous, do you? The part I am looking forward to is when people roar in approval when Trump says, "I want to cut taxes for billionaires and corporations that charge higher prices!" And when he says, "Let's make both abortion and health care illegal, everywhere!" people will elect him overwhelmingly. 😉

That is a fact. Nothing else does matter to you. You are 1000 % in with the Cult. That is all that really matters to you.