How much baht will you get?

[reader]

As high season approaches, it's becoming increasingly clear that the strengthening baht is showing few signs of retreating.  Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand is ignoring pleas from the Finance Ministry to cut rates so it's probably prudent to plan on receiving no more baht than you'd get if you were arriving today (see link to exchange rates following this article). And if things change for the better, you can be happily surprised.

 

Excerpts from The Nation

 

BOT unfazed by call for rate cut

 

The Bank of Thailand is confident on the country’s outlook for economic growth, despite the concerns over a strong baht that prompted a call by the Finance Ministry for a cut in interest rates.
 

The Finance Ministry this week urged the cut in rates in order to ease upward pressure on the baht.

But Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said a reduction in interest rates would not deter the capital inflows that have been pushing up the currency.

 

Veerathai said investors had shown confidence in the recovery of the economy and thus an interest rate cut would be unlikely to slow the pace of baht appreciation.

 

He said the spread between Thai interest rates and those in other countries may not deter capital inflows as investors are also motivated by other factors in addition to yield, noting that shorter-term bond yields are lower than the policy rate of 1.5 per cent.

 

He said the central bank had been closely watching exchange rate movements and is ready to intervene in the market when the baht rises too strongly in the short term, as this would affect consumption and the whole economy. 

 

However, the central bank cannot fight the trend and exporters have to learn how to hedge against exchange rate volatility.

 

"The problem is US dollar weakness. It has depreciated by 10 per cent while the baht moved up by 7-8 per cent from early this year,” Veerathai said. “This suggests other currencies have appreciated more than the baht.”

 

Veerathai was confident that the baht would move in line with other regional currencies and thus result in the country not being at an export disadvantage with competitors.

 

He said that while the inflation rate is lower than targeted, the country was not experiencing deflation as the economy is still growing.

 

Separately, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) – worried about the sustainability of the global recovery – has called for an end to austerity and for more spending to boost demand like the New Deal after World War II.

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30326709

 

Today's Exchange rates:

 

http://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=THB

[vinapu]

33.00 per 1 USD at this very moment ,

I'm  sitting in the internet cafe beside Tukcom with good view of rates posted at exchange kiosk in front of the shop. 

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

 

A public rift between Thailand’s central bank and government on interest rates shows just how much of a dilemma the baht has become for the economy.

 

The Finance Ministry is pushing the Bank of Thailand to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, in light of the strength of the currency and low inflation. That’s clashing with the bank's aim of minimising financial instability and curbing household debt levels by keeping rates steady.

 

With days to go before the next interest-rate decision on Sept 27, economists are watching the dispute closely. The Bank of Thailand has so far pushed back against calls to cut its benchmark interest rate from a near record-low of 1.5%, where it’s been since 2015, intervening in the currency market instead and curbing the supply of short-term bonds to limit the baht’s gains.

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1327155/baht-pits-bank-of-thailand-against-government-on-rate-cut

 

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Excerpts from Reuters

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand welcomed 3.13 million tourists in August, a record for the low season month, and there’s no sign that the strong baht is hurting an industry that’s been a rare bright spot for the economy.

 

The August arrivals were 8.66 percent above a year earlier and marked the first time visitors during that month topped three million. The visitors in August generated 163 billion baht ($4.93 billion) in revenue, up 11.7 percent from a year earlier, Pongpanu Svetarundra, permanent secretary of the tourism and sports ministry, told a news conference on Tuesday.

 

During August, the number of visitors from East Asia increased 10 percent from a year earlier to 2.26 million, with nearly one million from China, up 10.3 percent. Numbers from the Middle East rose 19.4 percent to 103,784 in August while those from Europe were flat, at 437,739.

 

Gundy Cahyadi, an economic and currency researcher at DBS Group Holdings Ltd in Singapore, said officials are “really running out of options now” and unlike the recent string of unanimous monetary policy decisions, there may be a few detractors from the no-change vote as early as next week.

 

“They probably need to do more to try to dampen the expectations for the baht to strengthen further,” he said.

[stijntje]

Exchange rates are different all the time. I don't mind that. I just accept the exchange rate...

[forky123]

The exchange rate will have to drop a lot more before it affects my decision on whether to go to Thailand or not.