tassojunior
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Posts posted by tassojunior
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a month after I waited 2 months for my US passport renewal on expedite they now have it online and people are getting theirs in a week. 😍
Remember- your US passport must be good for at least 3-6 months past your expected stay to enter most countries
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Let me be radical and say I agree Russia should not drop a nuclear bomb on Kiev to shorten the war and neither should any country drop one "to save lives". That is a contradiction.
I drive little and have a Prius but yesterday I had to go to northeast DC to a body shop and I noticed gas at two stations out there was $4.58/gallon. I last got gas two weeks ago and it was $3.50. Today they say the US is stopping Russian oil so by the time summer driving starts gas could double. Does the government really think $9 gas is not going to cause a revolt? (few of them or other rich have any idea what gas costs). Most Americans who are lower middle class have to drive everywhere from neccessity. That's a high price for Zelinsky not having to recognize Donbas's independence.
Remember, Americans started a revolution over high tea prices.
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i wish people would quit reassuring everyone that the guy deep down in a bunker at the Kremlin with his finger on the hypersonic nuclear weapon button is just desperate and crazy. That is the furthest thing from reassuring.
That's my argument for not cornering and making enemies desperate anyway. Not that I think Putin is or JFK was. Disrepected and overcompensating maybe.
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When I was very young I remember the Cuba missile crisis and how certain we were that nuclear war would start in a day or two tops. I remember all the hundreds of tanks on railroard cars headed past our house to Florida. I remember talking my father into helping me bury a jar of personal items in the back yard as a time capsule for future people long after the nuclear war to find. We were that certain.
Over all these many years I've become complacent about nuclear war like everyone else. It could never happen ! (Mutually-assured destruction, etc).
For the first time since I was that young boy I have in back of my mind sitting here in the middle of DC that any minute I could be vaporized without much warning.
People have finally gotten that crazy again.
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25 minutes ago, forrestreid said:
Well congratulations Tassojunior, you are now reduced to using the excuse of every thug and bully:
"Look, if you had given me your lunch money when I asked you first, you wouldn't have a bloody nose now. Why do you have to make it hard for yourself?"
Sounds like the US in our last few dozen embargos & invasions. It's terrible Russia is being that bullyish...too.
Everyone and every country has to make a decision how much to compromise vs. consequences of escalating any dispute. Those who fight every single issue to the extreme are fools. People or countries.
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41 minutes ago, reader said:
Nine nations possess nuclear weapons. If we were to follow your illogical line of thinking, tassojunior, then any one of them would be given carte blanch based simply on the fact that they have nukes.
Brilliant!
A lot of people have noticed that the US does not invade countries that have nuclear weapons. Everyone else is fair game.
Only China and Russia have undetectable supersonic nuclear weapons. Everyone else's can be shot down like the US's. Our $750 Billion military budget obviously isn't enough lol. And China has few warheads compared to the US and Russia.
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"Well this was certainly better than compromising on autonomy for Donbas"
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1 hour ago, forrestreid said:
Just a bit of context on the figures of deaths in the Donbas conflict that Tassojunior quotes in almost every post. The number of civilians who died in the Donbass conflict went from over 2000 in 2014, to 26 in 2019 and 27 in 2020. This was a more or less frozen conflict in military terms. In the wake of the Russian invasion last month, more civilians are being killed every hour in Ukraine than died annually in the Donbass conflict in recent years.
Obviously every death is more than just a statistic, but Tassojunior quoting the figure of 14,000 overall in the conflict is misleading when many posters who are unfamiliar with the Donbass conflict may assume it was still going at that sort of level.
Also remember that the conflict was started when Putin unilaterally invaded Crimea and aided an insurrection in the Donbass region. Perhaps the most famous incident in the early years was when Putin, with incredible recklessness, sent Buk missiles to the rebels, along with people could operate it, and they promptly bombed a civilian aircraft out of the sky, in the Flight MH17 tragedy.
Another issue that Tassojunior continually raises is the failure of the Minsk process. However, the failure of the Minsk II process was not purely a stubborn refusal by Ukraine to accept a fair deal from Russia. Although France and Germany tried for several years to get the Minsk instruments to work, they came up against what has been referred to as the “Minsk conundrum.”
This is how Al Jazeera explains the problem. I’m just using Al Jazeera here as example of a news website that wouldn’t be necessarily pro-Western.
“Ukraine sees the 2015 agreement as an instrument to re-establish control over the rebel territories.It wants a ceasefire, control of the Russia-Ukraine border, elections in the Donbas, and a limited devolution of power to the separatists – in that order. Russia views the deal as obliging Ukraine to grant rebel authorities in Donbas comprehensive autonomy and representation in the central government, effectively giving Moscow the power to veto Kyiv’s foreign policy choices. Only then would Russia return the Russia-Ukraine border to Kyiv’s control”
Full article here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now
The real stumbling block was that Putins real aim was never rights of self-government for Donbas, but instead his demand that the terms of the agreement would result in the Donbas region having a veto in international treaties and agreements by Ukraine, which would result in Ukraine being prevented joining NATO or the EU, even if a huge majority of the rest of country wanted to.
In other words, Putin would have control over Ukraine is foreign policy, despite the policies of whatever person was elected democratically as the President of Ukraine.
I didn't realize so few had been killed in Donbas the past couple years but my point is still that giving Donbas autonomy or even independence is much preferable to having thousands now killed and risking a nuclear war. And one of the reasons I doubt a low number is that the famously Nazi Azov Battalion is centered on the lines in Donbas for the express purpose of killing seperatists there. The Washington Post had a front page story 2 days ago on a "volunteer" group of Ukrainian snipers who live in a large house on the Donbas front lines and how much fun they have watching seperatists heads blow up through the sight when their bullet strikes the seperatists' heads. I always thought it was just childrens' heads that exploded when sniper bullets struck them. (I doubt it matters to snipers). The story certainly doesn't sound as if this wonderful group had only killed a couple people in the past years.
On a high note at least we know Ukrainians don't just enjoy killing Jews, Blacks and Arabs anymore.
I don't see Ukraine coming out of this as well as the Minsk treaties and in fact that's what they're wanting now.
Ukrianian sniper group in Donbas. Not killing Russians but Ukrainian seperatists. :
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1 hour ago, reader said:
In a situation like this, I prefer to go with Churchill or Patton.
gotcha.
Even if it causes a million deaths or a nuclear war and a billion deaths don't give an inch on anything. Death with honor is preferable to giving any compromise at all.
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3 hours ago, reader said:
If you really were serious about "wanting to see as few people killed as possible" one would think you'd would be calling on Putin to get the hell out. Instead, you're trying to justify why he went in.
Sorry, my friend, but that sure sounds like an apology.
By the way, you avoided the question you cited in your post: are you better off now than before Putin started his invasion?
14,000 people in Donbas were killed by Ukraine. That killing had to stop. I don't understand war so don't understand why Russia attacked all of Ukraine. But the fact is the official demand from Russia in the peace talks appears to be the same today (which shocks me) and Ukraine still refuses (which shocks me more). No NATO and Minsk Treaty adherence. Ukraine is going to end up refusing easy peace settlements and more people are going to die and we're going to spiral into a bigger war.
I'd like for Ukraine to be in the EU and would rather Dombas be autonmous than independent but again, I'd jump at this chance to save so many lives and keep Ukraine a country. Ukraine refused the Minsk provision of just autonomy for Donbas and has lost that bet. It's just going to keep getting less favorable terms and more people are going to die. And after a certain point total surrender will be the terms and many more will be dead. Thousands of lives matter more than pride in a glorious war.
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3 hours ago, reader said:
Apologists for Putin need ask themselves one question at this point: are you better off today than before the invasion?
Wanting to see as few people killed as possible and avoiding wars is not being an apologist. That's a tired accusation of jingoists in the leadup to every glorious war. 14,000 people have been killed in 8 years, mostly Ukranians by Ukraine because Ukraine refused to honor the Minsk treaties after signing them eight years ago. That simply is a fact surpressed as "misinformation" in our new censorship society.
Why is it before every major war Americans are so eager for it to start and turn on it after the bodies and costs pile up. We are so gullible to the pro-war press everytime. Look at our interventions just since WW2:
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There's also the likihood that with a Russian victory, Putin becomes a national hero like Hitler after extremely harsh sanctions on Germany. Today in Doha at the world gymnastics championships:
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1 hour ago, a-447 said:
Which is why there will not be a nuclear war.
If Putin's hand hovers over the nuclear button his generals will quickly step in and remove him from power. Afterall, they and their families want to live, not die for Putin or any perceived glory for the motherland.
And the retaliation against Putin by the Russian people would be swift and decisive.
That's what they said about Hussein in Iraq, Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam, Castro in Cuba, Allende in Chile, and dozens of other leaders we made war on. "NATO and the US will be welcomed by the people as liberators with parades !" . Biden, Bush and Clinton all repeated that guarantee a lot. It's astounding (and frankly terrifying) people still fall for that line.
Supersonic undedectable missiles change much chance Russia would suffer a counterattack. A country with it's back against the wall would do it. I'd rather see everyone ease off the buttons with honor.
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2 hours ago, reader said:
So you're advice is to wait 11 years so the Putin can have a well-deserved "honorable" exit?
And you think Putin plans to leave the Ukraine?
There's one Russian we understand all too well. His intentions to invade the Ukraine were predicted with complete accuracy despite his denials.
My advice and every sane person's was to abide by the Minsk treaties and see how it worked out in the next decade instead of giving Russia an excuse (after 8 years and 14,000 dead in Donbas from non-adhereance to the treaty) to intervene. Now that Russia had an excuse to go in, who knows how much of Ukraine will be left after many dead on both sides and who knows how much the war will escalate as wars always do. Abiding by Minsk was simple and predictable. War never is except that it's 1000 times worse than when we go into one being told it's going to be quick and glorious for noble reasons. It may be a bloodbath with many atrocities on both sides now. That's war. But I doubt Ukraine will "win" or get as good a treaty as Minsk was.
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It's just a time when China and Russia have the capability to wipe out the US with undetectable supersonic missles but every US missle is detectable and easily shot down. Especially in China's case, one almost wonders why they don't but then China doesn't have nearly the number of warheads Russia and the US do. If war's inevitable they're wasting time. We'll know when the US gets those missiles because China and half it's population will be gone next day.
Meanwhile people need to understand how Russians are "different" to avoid assuming they understand them and can predict their actions:
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24 minutes ago, vinapu said:
what if he doesn't leave ?
then still don't back it in a corner and poke it with sticks.
Ukraine is begging for reinstatement of the Minsk treaties now and every day we rapidly move closer to nuclear war.
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4 hours ago, z909 said:
Putin is 69 and is about 9 months older than Xi. Or 9 years younger than Biden.
Whilst it would be good if Putin keeled over, we shouldn't count on him dying of old age soon.
The average life expectancy of a person who is 69 years old in the UK is for another 17 years.
Even 17 years is not a long time to deal with a situation like the Minsk treaties. Instant gratification and short attention span is a big US problem now. My guess is if Ukraine advanced and became successful Dombas would reunite in time. If you think of some "recent" things, they've been longer. We expanded NATO to Russia's borders 18 years ago. We sent troops into Afghanistan 20 years ago. But my guess is Putin would leave before 80 and a decent chance Medvedev will take back over soon now as an "honorable" exit for Putin.
The total ridiculousness of this whole thing is that the Ukraine government in negotiations is strongly pushing the Minsk treaties giving Dombas autonomy which they refused to comply with after signing for the past 8 years causing this war. Now it seems like a wonderful deal. "Friends" sometime in the past 8 years would have pushed them to take that deal and run.
If you're ever in a room with a large bear go out the door asap and wait until the bear leaves. Backing it into a corner and poking it with sticks is a trendy but poor strategy.
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2 hours ago, Slvkguy said:
if you’ve ever visited Russia, then you know EVERYTHING there is dysfunctional & corrupt. Nothing actually works in Russia - they are incapable of launching a well-coordinated military invasion, thus they resort to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets & terrorism. In other words, war-crimes.
Given the existing Western sanctions, the Russian economy has about 2 weeks before total collapse. They might be able to keep it going for a few months post-collapse - afterwards, they either become a Chinese supported client state and/or Putin will be deposed.Nuclear attack by Russia extremely unlikely because their missiles are like their trucks stuck in the mud on the way to Kiev…not maintained, unreliable and probably don’t work either.
This entire exercise is the last gasp for a Putin’s Russia - it’s over.Unfortunately Russia, like China, has undetectable hypersonic nuclear missiles and in spite of all the $ and research we've poured in we don't yet. You're right, Russia's best (maybe only) chance is to surprise the US with a wipeout nuclear attack. That's not a good position to put your enemy in. The chances we'll die soon in a nuclear war have skyrocketed and will get worse every day. It's much more frightening than the Cuban missile crisis.
Putin won't be president long because he's getting old, if no other reason. We should have grabbed the Minsk treaties and waited him out. China's much more a problem today and for the future and pushing Russia into China's arms was dumb even if we don't have a nuclear attack soon.
Sun Tzu in The Art of War said that you should build golden bridges for your enemy to retreat over (and he never had to even deal with crazy Russians).
But if we have a nuclear attack I won't come back and say I told you so.
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2 hours ago, reader said:
Maldives or the Seychelles I think are more family and couples oriented and not exactly affordable.
Christianpfc has a blog site where he has reported on his recent long-time stay in Cambodia. As I recall, he found it affordable, relatively safe but not on a par with Thailand. I believe he used the apps a lot.
Won't Russians just head to Vietnam instead which is cheaper? I have a friend ("Velvety") from Prague who worked in Vietnam because he spoke Russian which is a huge portion of tourists in Vietnam. Otherwise they tend to go to Turkey and Tunisia a lot. The southern Black Sea coast of Turkey has been solid Russian tourists in summer for a long time. I'm wondering if the Helsinki-St. Petersburg ferry that doesn't require a visa will be open this summer.
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10 hours ago, TotallyOz said:
Thread is now back after moderator discussion. We can't ban everyone who support Putin just like we can't ban everyone who likes Trump. We all know those people are nutty but it is still important to be kind to them.
I doubt there's anyone who "supports Putin" (and few who support Trump) but there's a politics forum for a reason and allowing another thread related to travel to be destroyed by page-long spam posts of political memes doesn't help the site.
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3 hours ago, Menaughty said:
What are the best days and times to go to Thermas in Barcelona?
I am planning a week long trip to Barcelona & Madrid in May. Would love to know what days and times are better for thermas in barcelona to go, so I can plan my days that way.
You may be surprised at how early the place pretty much empties out, especially during the week. It's more an afternoon/very early evening place during the week and a not much later place on weekends. There's always someone there (one guy sleeps there) , but it can get "quiet" . At Paragonya in Zurich they have a way you can check how many are there before going but Thermas doesn't have that feature. I always tell US friends going first time to go a little earlier than they plan.
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Uinted cancelled it's flights from California to India because of the Russia air ban. That's a lot of people CA/India. I wonder what other Asia flights will fall. I've flown London/SanFrancisco near-polar and I'd guess there are other near-polar routes to CA that will be axed.
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I wonder if the fabuous basement hustler/leather bar is still in Koln? Man that place was nice.
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13 hours ago, Menaughty said:
Does anybody know the difference between Axel Hotel Barcelona and TWO Hotel Barcelona by Axel?
TWO is a 10 minute shorter walk to Thermas (5 minutes vs 15). TWO is a newish small building with tiny rooms and a "sexy"? glass wall to the bath/toilet. Boring neighborhood. Axel is in the center of the ritzy trendy area with dozens of shops, cafes, gay bars etc. I liked TWO just "ok". I've stayed at the Intercontinental close to TWO which was a fabulous suite , maybe best I've ever had, but boring neighborhood. But next trip I'll stay at Axel or a closeby hotel for the gayborhood.
Curious what happened to the Russian invasion thread?
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When the Clintons helped Putin win the election against the communists in Russia and he finished dismantling the USSR, Russia expected to be part of of the EU and NATO and a western democracy. Instead Russia was spat on by the west and NATO was moved onto it's border with missiles pointed at Russia. Not being able to shake the Cold War goal of destroying Russia out of our minds was the dumbest mistake the US has ever made.
Now China is the strongest country in the world and we've lost any hope of the US-Europe/Russia being an alliance to equal China because of our Cold War obsession to defeat Russia.