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Breaking: Rio Lock-down & Curfew

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So far, just for the next week ... the Dance, not the Hammer.

I think the Hammer may come into play if and when serious CoV cases exceed acute care capacity and deaths occur due to lack of available health care. Such a scenario is plausible. Keep an eye on mortality. It tends to lag behind case count. Deaths are at a record high. As case counts have been increasing, the lethality rate and absolute daily deaths would not be expected to subside. 

I don’t know how curfew implementation works for airports, ie, you need to get into town after 23:00, I think that you are not bothered if you are in a vehicle. In fact, I doubt the police care about isolated cases of individuals out in public. 

In contrast, in Montreal, a huge fine from patrolling cops after 20:00, for weeks now. 

But the late night arrivals in Brazil tend to be Copa and I think they are cancelling most if not all. 

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A state court has dialled back Mayor Paes’ decree. What a tug’o’war there; elected leaders, courts, public health entities, clinical scientists.

The mitigation plan was already little more than a one-week drip-feed for coronavirus containment, unlikely to have much impact. This lockdown may have a bit of a latch-hook on the door but the windows are flung open. 

Restaurants, including brothels with food services as I understand it, over the next few days will be allowed to open until 20:00; I think admission is shut at 19:00 and alcohol allowed until 17:00 ... I expect there is total messaging confusion about how to comply when there can be little agreement about anything. 

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Wise move. Break the circuit. It’s the UK variant and it may be inflated by cross-border travel from Cambodia.

Thailand will have to revert back to 14-day quarantine; 10 days is too leaky wrt to a strain that is more contagious, with a longer contagion period, than original wild-type CoV. 

This is likely partly the cascade effect of an identifiable quarantine breach in Cambodia in February, with cases surging there now about 25% higher rolling incidence than Thailand after having had a negligible volume of cases since the pandemic commenced.

Thailand scaled back quarantine duration April 1st. They didn’t see the newer smaller leaves coming and switched to a rake with tines spread too far apart. Hindsight is 20:20. 

It’s all happening very quickly. I would not be surprised if this scuppers Thailand’s plan for local cluster vaxx for the tourism spot Phuket in order to deploy the limited supply to infection hotspots.

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