PeterRS Posted 11 hours ago Posted 11 hours ago I have paid little attention to the pundits on TV and elsewhere about the Middle East War, partly because I do not trust a word of what politicians and so-called decision makers in any country are saying. However, as I sometimes do, I pick up nuggets from youtube. Some admittedly is crap - and I have recently been guilty of repeating one crap entry, for which I again apologise. This morning, though, I listened to a video explanation by Canadian educator Jiang Xueqin (who is not actually a professor) of how he believes the war has to end. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post has dubbed him China's Nostradamus. I have never listened to any of his vdos before - and i admit I am slightly baffled by the comment on the top left "Altered or synthetic comment" as I do not know what it means! But I find much of what he says to be logical and worth hearing. Part of the reason for going to war was new to me - especially the petrodollar issue. And part of what he predicts could be one of the outcomes with shifting alliances in a Middle East without an American presence is at the least very interesting. I believe he is correct in sugeting that Iran will never trust America, if only because every time they have been in the midst of previous negotiations, the USA has torn them up. He believes that the USA has to withdraw from the Middle East partly because it will be overextended militarily, and that the resultant vacuum will be filled by Israel and Iran. The remaining Middle East states willl then align with one or the other - for their own interests. He believes that eventually Israel and Iran will eventually agree to co-exist - and that I do find more than somewhat difficult to believe. But then I really have no idea what to believe. I just find this analysis interesting. His entry on wikipedia states this - Jiang's Geo-Strategy episode, "The Iran Trap" (2024), has attracted international attention, predicting the re-election of Donald Trump in 2024 and escalating U.S. involvement in a conflict with Iran (cf. the 2025 and 2026 conflicts) and eventual U.S. loss in a prolonged conflict, the first two of which have come true as of 2026. According to India Today, other analysts had made similar predictions but "Jiang packaged them early and memorably." Quote
caeron Posted 10 hours ago Posted 10 hours ago Trump made them play their own trump card, the strait of hormuz. The only real answer is invasion. Trump's politically in a corner about the war already. Ordering a ground assault and an occupying force would end him. He's an idiot, but I don't think he's that much of an idiot. So, I don't see Trump getting what he wants at the negotiation table even if the Iranians negotiated in good faith. They're very bad people, but they're not stupid people. For all their suffering, they have defeated us. They have a big chunk of the world's oil and gas hostage. Whether we withdraw more from the middle east, everybody is looking around for more trustworthy allies than the US. We elected that buffoon twice. They need to prepare for whoever the third will be. Quote
Members Pete1111 Posted 8 hours ago Members Posted 8 hours ago Does Jiang Xueqin explain how Netanyahu persuaded Trump to attack Iran while Obama and Biden rejected that idea? It's peculiar he produces AI generated videos of himself. Perhaps this is the efficient way to do it, since his geopolitical theories are also from AI Quote
PeterRS Posted 7 hours ago Author Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, Pete1111 said: Does Jiang Xueqin explain how Netanyahu persuaded Trump to attack Iran while Obama and Biden rejected that idea? It's peculiar he produces AI generated videos of himself. Perhaps this is the efficient way to do it, since his geopolitical theories are also from AI Do we know for sure that Netanyahu persuaded Trump? To me that is spin and I have no idea if it is true or false. I believe Netanyahu is very much at the bottom of the quagmire the US is now in, but I doubt if Trump would have started a war unless he knew Netanyahu was going to back him up with a vast arsenal of weaponry. I know little about AI. But if his vdos are AI speak, they sure make a great deal of sense. Quote
