Members Lucky Posted February 1, 2020 Members Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) The dancers in bars, the taxi drivers and the tuk tuk drivers, just about everybody will soon be wearing face masks in Thailand, I predict. Heck, all over Asia the masks have become common. One good thing, the venues won't be packed with Chinese women competing for the boys' attention! They can't get there! Here, some of Oz's former boyfriends pledge to wear them until the crisis ends: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30381427?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral The Bangkok Post reports that Phuket is deserted! https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1848409/chinese-tourists-desert-phuket Other virus news: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1846299/coronavirus-outbreak-possible-in-major-tourist-centres Edited February 1, 2020 by Lucky add links Latbear4blk and TotallyOz 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 1, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 1, 2020 In Hong Kong, health care workers are threatening to go on strike Monday if all Chinese borders with Hong Kong are not closed. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048558/fears-coronavirus-spreading-locally-hong-kong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Riobard Posted February 1, 2020 Members Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) Here is an example of predicted model progression that emerges from epidemiology. If the model reasonably approximates exponential progression based on recent tallies, the forecast is certainly startling, particularly since there are concerns about underreporting. Today’s tally (12,000) falls short of the assumption, but is still worrisome. Sorry the image is not crisper ... you can always search the domain. Edited February 1, 2020 by Riobard AdamSmith 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members citylaw1 Posted February 2, 2020 Members Share Posted February 2, 2020 Headed to Thailand on February 14th with the BF. A bit concerned of course, but not sure if we should cancel yet. I don't trust the Chinese government, and I certainly don't underestimate the financial pressure shaping government responses in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulsf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I’m flying to Bangkok tonight thru Hong Kong. My flight is maybe 25% full. Business Class had 54 seats booked last week. This morning only 10 seats taken. I’ve got a lot of friends in Bangkok and they all say you have to be aware of things but wouldn’t cancel. There are no flights from China . No big Chinese tour groups. They say it’s a bit quiet right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Riobard Posted February 2, 2020 Members Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, citylaw1 said: Headed to Thailand on February 14th with the BF. A bit concerned of course, but not sure if we should cancel yet. I don't trust the Chinese government, and I certainly don't underestimate the financial pressure shaping government responses in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia. Thoughts? Remember that progression globally went from 45 to over 10,000 reported cases in the past two weeks even with emerging vector control measures. Thailand’s current baseline is almost half the baseline n=45. Watch it closely over the next two weeks prior to departure, and gauge projected progression over your duration of time there. The exponential factor increases with time. For me, apart from the health risk would be the complexities of travel medical insurance and health care costs. I would certainly want to know my insurer’s position ... it may not be Valentine-grade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 2, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 2, 2020 I wish the Bangkok travelers well. It would be a horrible shame if we lost that country to travel because of coronavirus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamSmith Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 One’s instincts say undercounting plus the forecasting algorithms are as ever too conservative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyOz Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 12:08 AM, Lucky said: Here, some of Oz's former boyfriends pledge to wear them until the crisis ends: My dear, they were pledging to swallow if I went them them again. Seriously, no crisis here yet. I would still travel to Thailand as much as I would the USA. A pandemic is a pandemic. Lucky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamSmith Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, TotallyOz said: A pandemic is a pandemic. I don’t know. There is that phrase ‘the belly of the beast.’ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyOz Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, AdamSmith said: I don’t know. There is that phrase ‘the belly of the beast.’ My theory is that this all started in Washington DC and an attempt to change the trade war with China. Would that not make DC and the East Coast the belly? AdamSmith 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamSmith Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 hours ago, TotallyOz said: My theory is that this all started in Washington DC and an attempt to change the trade war with China. Would that not make DC and the East Coast the belly? I.e., who has the biggest belly in DC right now? TotallyOz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members zazzu Posted February 6, 2020 Members Share Posted February 6, 2020 Damn... I've had my heart set on a trip to Bangkok in the spring for the last 6 months. I'm still tempted to go in March if the numbers remain low. The numbers (according to this website at least) are showing a total of 25 infected and holding relatively steady for the past week, not that that means much. If it remains that way (more or less) for the next 4-5 weeks, I think I will take my chances. The southern hemisphere seems relatively unscathed at this point, but I don't know anywhere in that area that offers what I like about Thailand. Besides, I'm comfortable there because I know the area fairly well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 8, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 8, 2020 I have a friend leaving Sunday for Bangkok...via Hong Kong. I think he will be fine. zazzu 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulsf Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 For the most part Bangkok is business as usual. Not nearly as many Asians as I thought would be wearing masks. Barely any Westerners wearing them. In the entertainment district. (Bars and Gogo’s). Only occasionally an Asian customer wearing masks. nobody talking about it. Unless you turn on tv you would barely no anything was going on. At the airport they were trying to take temperatures. Getting maybe 50% of passengers. Hong Kong did much better job. They narrowed the walk ways and got almost everyone’s temperature. This is a Religious 3 day weekend so many have left city. No Chinese tour groups allowed in Thailand so no big tour busses. All in all it’s pretty much business as usual. Bars and gogo’s open tonight, but no alcohol till after midnight. Unless your a regular customer and they will give you a red plastic cup with tea. Wink wink. AdamSmith and zazzu 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members zazzu Posted February 10, 2020 Members Share Posted February 10, 2020 This helps. I'm still leaning towards going but only like 51:49. I could easily be swayed into not going... A lot of what I'm seeing is like you guys are saying - business as usual, as long as I'm not going to China I'll be fine, etc. The naysayers are just very (overly?) cautious people. Lucky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 15, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 15, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 7:57 AM, citylaw1 said: Headed to Thailand on February 14th with the BF. A bit concerned of course, but not sure if we should cancel yet. I don't trust the Chinese government, and I certainly don't underestimate the financial pressure shaping government responses in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia. Thoughts? Are you going today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 15, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 15, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:11 PM, paulsf said: For the most part Bangkok is business as usual. Not nearly as many Asians as I thought would be wearing masks. Barely any Westerners wearing them. In the entertainment district. (Bars and Gogo’s). Only occasionally an Asian customer wearing masks. nobody talking about it. Unless you turn on tv you would barely no anything was going on. . It would be weird to go to a gogo bar and see the guys all wearing face masks but showing dick! zazzu 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamSmith Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Lucky said: It would be weird to go to a gogo bar and see the guys all wearing face masks but showing dick! Well, after all... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corona_of_glans_penis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lucky Posted February 28, 2020 Author Members Share Posted February 28, 2020 Any updates from those in Thailand on how the virus is affecting (or not) daily life? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyOz Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Things are slow here. It is quiet. I don't think numbers are accurate. The effect on tourism will be a major issue for the country and the world. IMHO, the worst is yet to come. I do not think any country will be immune.It is going to spread.We are coming up on Spring break for USA and when that happens, people will be going abroad and possibly risk getting sick and then returning to the USA. Personally, I do not see this as a 2 month issue. It will go on well into or past the summer. Lucky and AdamSmith 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyOz Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 See this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-solutions-2020-2 AdamSmith 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members averagejoe Posted March 12, 2020 Members Share Posted March 12, 2020 Trump just announced the stop of all flights from Europe. You have got to take in the risk that Thailand may be added to the list. Several other countries have banned travel from several other countries. Thailand has cancelled visa on arrival to several countries and visa exemption for others. So probably being stateside till this blows over might be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulsf Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 DHS has already stated that Americans will not be refused entry into the US. Flights from UK still flying. So there will be major inconveniences but there are work arounds. I’v been in Bangkok now for a couple of months. I feel safer here than I will in the US listening to the panic I seem to hear from there. Tourism is slow here , but it seems much more business as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlacoste123 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Philippines (Manila) is now in total lockdown for 30 days. No air, land or sea travel in or out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
