stevenkesslar

Trump is so sick of winning, the guilty verdict must come as a relief.
His constant declarations of innocence are laughable - except to the brainwashed, uneducated, hillbilly trailer-trash magamaniacs. 
If he were truly innocent, why didn't he testify to give us the real "truth"? Why has be never addressed all the evidence - the phone calls, multiple emails, receipts, documents, etc. Witnesses can lie but the physical evidence can't. 
It's that very evidence which proves the trial was not rigged and was not part of a Biden conspiracy.
Trump has now joined all those criminals he says are crossing the border. How ironic!
BTW, how come in the U.S., if you are convicted of a crime, you can become president but cannot vote? Am I missing something here??

How about Trey Gowdy?

An anal tongue bath would have been too much, so the groveling salute of North Korea worked for President ManBaby

Burning refugee women and children sheltering in tents with American supplied weapons does not cross Biden's red line.
Let that sink in!

Skyrocketing rents and home prices may be pivotal in the 2024 election
 
And there you have it.
I'm glad Democrats and the left-of-center media have finally caught on.   It is telling.  Most politicians and reporters probably own homes.  If not, they certainly make decent incomes.  So if there were a poll of politicians and reporters, I doubt they would say housing is their personal "pain point".  But as this argument documents very nicely, it is for lots of working class and young Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Whites.
They don't really say why they picked Las Vegas to profile.  Other than it has a particularly bad housing supply shortage.  It's also the swing state Biden won in 2020 that he is now usually furthest behind in, in polls.  It is kind of the perfect storm.  As the article says, the workforce structure in Vegas is such that many of the most common jobs don't pay enough for the people who work them to be able to afford rent.  Which is going through the roof.  Ouch!
There is some part of me that feels if the Democrats, my party, is so fucked up that they can not figure this out, they deserve to lose.  The only problem with my idea is that Trump and Republicans won't solve the problem, ether.
This is an interesting issue for Trump, who is a real estate guy and builder.  To me, it really exposes what an absolute and total fraud and piece of shit he was and will be as a leader.  There was a brief moment in late 2016 and early 2017, right after Trump won, when all kinds of lefty journalists were freaking out.  The narrative went like this:  Oh my God!  What if Trump is secretly a centrist?  What if he is secretly competent and effective?  What if he can actually get an infrastructure bill passed?  I thought, Geez.  That would be a nice problem to have.  My point is that, had any of that been true, the most obvious thing in the world is The Smartest Builder In The Galaxy, Ever surely could have figured out how to get the federal government to stimulate massive affordable housing development.  By Spring 2017 all the bed wetting journalists figured out that Trump doesn't exist, and never did.  He is a narcissistic old gas bag and TV star and con man.
Democrats have been there and done this before.  Black homeownership was higher than it has ever been in 2000, thanks to Clinton taking all this public/private partnership stuff grassroots CDCs had been building gradually for decades and putting it on steroids through a federal focus on affordable and fair and sound mortgage lending.  Black and Latino and working class White homeownership rates - and net worth - soared.  The right wing loves to blame Clinton for subprime and 2008.  But they are completely ignorant.  Clinton left office in 2001.  The mortgages made on his watch had nothing to do with subprime, which started in earnest when W. was POTUS and the Republicans ran everything.  Most important, the built in reality check was the 2001 recession.  If all these crappy mortgages had been made in 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000, the 2001 recession was the perfect time for them to go belly up.  It didn't happen.  My point is that the federal government, under Clinton, did what Republicans always say they want.  It used capitalism and the free market, with a push from the federal government and community groups, to build wealth and economic stability among aspiring working class people of every race.
If Democrats can not figure out how to do this now, they are stupid and lack vision.  And they deserve to lose.  Yes, this is complicated.  But so was taking out Hitler.  So was putting a man on the moon.  So was Trump himself pushing for a vaccine that, in record time, took out a virus that killed 1 million Americans.  Compared to those three things, and many more, this is a piece of cake.  People love construction jobs.  Home Depot loves selling building supplies.  What is the problem?
I think the sad diagnosis, which is why so many Americans don't like their choices, is that neither Trump nor Biden will get this done. Trump has proven he lacks the political skills.  What surprises me a little, as a builder with grand ideas, is that he doesn't have the vision to do this.  Call me biased.  But I think it is because his main vision is of him being The Big Guy who sits behind the desk and is adored as he lies and pats himself on the back.  Biden definitely has the political skills, as he has proven time and again.  I doubt he has the vision.  I hope if he wins a second term I am wrong.  Because he should be able to do something like what Clinton did 30 years ago.
My best guess is that Biden will turn out to be right, that he is a transitional figure.  Nobody young really sees him as their leader.  Even if they are the ones who elected him, and will re-elect him.  That Youth Vote survey of top issues - all about kitchen table economics - screams for a new vision that is more like Bernie Sanders than Donald Trump.  And at some point Millennials and Gen Z will be the predominant voting bloc in America.  So even if Biden wins my guess is the pressure will just build for some new post-Trump and post-Biden  leader and vision to come along in 2028.
 

It's never a good sign when more than half of your party wants to dump you!
Poor Dementia Joe.... lol.
54% of Democrats Now Approve of Dumping Biden
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/54_of_democrats_now_approve_of_dumping_biden
"54% of DEMOCRATS Want Joe Biden Replaced as 2024 Nominee"
HaHa------Too late democrats-------I don't know how you replace Dementia Joe Biden at this late stage in the game.
Michelle Obama is not exactly Miss Likable!
Gavin Newscum has turned California into a gigantic homeless encampment!
And Illinois Governor Pritzker is doing the same thing to Illinois!
It sure looks like democrats have painted themselves into a corner with their Green New-Woke-DEI-NO Border-BS Deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jill and Dementia Joe's ego are key. The Dems are stuck with him unless he dies.......

There is an old saying, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics' ( I believe it was Mark Twain). Polls are nothing more than statistics and I expect them to bounce about a bit until November. With answers depending on who is asking who, and who is paying for the stats. I've always enjoyed Stats and polls and they can tell us much about the past and we wish to use them to know the future. But they really are not that good of a crystal ball. Like most statistics you can twist them and almost always find some that will come close to what we want to believe. This is true I think of both sides. I put little stock in any of them at this point, especially a National Poll. In a national poll if they poll heavy in California or New York you will have one result, if they poll heavy in Texas or the South they get another answer.
One poll says Trump is ahead, another says Biden but I notice they are all relatively close in the so called "battle ground states". Due to the Electoral College, required by our Constitution, individual state polls are really the polls that matter.

Ooops.   “IDF takes every possible precaution not to hurt civilians.”   “Thoughts and prayers.”   Again and again and again and again….   Facing Global Outrage, Netanyahu Calls Civilian Deaths in Rafah Strike ‘Tragic Accident’
The strike on Sunday, which Israeli officials said targeted two Hamas leaders taking cover near a civilian encampment, ignited a fire that killed 45 people, according to the Gazan authorities.
 
 

I liked her and did not like Tim Scott but I don't think anyone can compete with Donald. He has complete and utter control of the mass of Republicans. Even those who know he is nuts still support him. Sheep.

Probably the most technically correct answer is, it doesn't. 
The only key that has anything to do with the challenger is the "charisma" key.  The two Presidents since he started predicting in 1984 Lichtman gave that to were Reagan and Obama - but only in 2008.  I think in practice what it means for Lichtman is that Reagan in 84 and Obama in 2008 (but not 2012) were "charismatic" in the sense that they were able to rise above their narrow partisan base.  Like Ike, a war hero, was also able to do.  Whereas by 2012 Obama was basically seen as a divisive partisan figure.  
The thing that I like most about Lichtman is that his keys not only have worked in practice, but they also make common sense.  And they are complimentary.  The idea is that people actually care about important things, like war and peace and the economy.  All the stupid stuff that happens in ads and on social media has very little to do with the outcome.  Which is why the polls are often so unreliable.  And the other core tenet is that the election is always the incumbent partys to win or lose. 
So it makes common sense to me that the challenger doesn't really matter, unless and until the incumbent party governs in a way that people give it a thumbs down.  Or if the challenger is so broadly popular or heroic that they draw people to them.  I think 2016 is a great example of that, as Lichtman views the world.  He has said that given the way the keys fell, against the incumbent Democratic Party, anyone running against Hillary would have won.  I'm pretty sure (going from imperfect memory) that he has said if the GOP had nominated someone more conventional, like Kasich, Republicans would have probably won more decisively in 2016.  As it relates to his keys, he has been very consistent in saying Trump doesn't qualify as charismatic, because he basically only appeals to a narrow partisan base.
He also said this in a recent interview:
I'm a little surprised he said that.  I have watched lots of interviews or speeches he gave.  His standard position, which makes sense to me, is that his system is based on patterns in every Presidential election since the Civil War.  So in over a century and a half of elections we have seen pretty much everything under the sun already.  Including all kinds of scandal.  In fact, impeachment was one of the keys Lichtman counted against Trump when he predicted he would lose in 2020.  
Some of these keys obviously depend on subjective judgment.  Like what is "charisma"?  Lichtman also said that he has shorter versions of his keys that can predict something like 90 % of Presidential elections based on fewer factors.  Incumbency and whether or not the party in power has a huge divisive internal fight (like in 2016) are particularly useful keys for predicting, he has said.  But the reason they did 13 keys is that, at least so far, that many keys have been able to predict with 100 % accuracy.  
The common sense way I view 2024 is that, unless something changes dramatically like it did in 2020 due to COVID, Biden is nowhere near getting a thumbs down rating - despite what the polls say right now.  He has only two keys definitely against him now, so four more would have to turn against him to lose.  (I'm no Lichtman, but IMHO Biden won't get a foreign policy win, and RFK may get a big chunk of votes.  So that would make two more keys against Biden.  But that still means Biden would win.)  Either you believe that, or you don't.  I do believe Lichtman is right, obviously.  My interpretation of Lichtman's keys is that where Trump and his trials enter in is that to the degree that there is any opening for a challenger to win, Trump is simply NOT the right guy.  The trial probably can not help, even if there is a mistrial.  And it probably can hurt, if we believe the polls that say a guilty verdict will disqualify him with some swing voters. 
@TotallyOz nailed it last year when he called out Nikki Haley as probably the best Republican alternative to Trump.  I was singing Tim Scott's praises at the time.  But Haley was the one who got some traction.  At least to the degree that anyone could compete with a cult leader.  This may sound off now, especially to cultists like @EmmetK.  But I really do believe Republicans sealed their fate when they nominated Trump.  Had they gone for Haley I think they would have had a better chance of winning.  We'll see.

Thanks for this and all of your other....  er.. lengthy posts. I'm sure nobody else bothers to read in their entirety.
For me, like I am sure almost everyone else here.  I read them until I start to snooze, which is about 2 or 3 sentences. 
Though they are repetitive and soporific, i can't say your posts are totally useless. They rock me to sleep, and save me a lot of $$ on Ambien!  lol

Personally, I don't have a problem with Biden's overall performance nor with his age but I do give some extra weight to his Vice President.  Not only would I like to see a VP who could be a real contender in 2028 but also one who could step in earlier if necessary.  And, sadly, Kamala Harris doesn't tick those boxes for me.  I've never felt I'd enjoy having a beer with her, plus she's been given the job of fixing the border and I haven't seen any evidence that she's succeeded or even shown much interest.  I worry that he'll handicap himself with Harris as a running mate, though I expect that's what he'll do.
I'll still vote for him, but never stop wishing that someone like Michelle Obama would be his running mate.  And, yes, I know that wish will not be granted.
Similar calculations with Trump, in my opinion.  Plus he'll throttle any running mate who stands for something besides kissing his ass.  If you ask me, his best bet would be Nikki Haley and she does seem to be puckering up for a big wet one. 💋
I've never paid much attention to VP picks, and the issue doesn't count at all with Lichtman.  But somethin' tells me it could be more of a factor this time.  Both Biden and Trump need all the help they can get.
 
 

Another day.....
........Another poll
This time, it/s the non-partisan Cook Political Report. It has TRUMP leading Dementia Joe Biden in SEVEN of the EIGHT swing states (it is tied in Wisconsin).
So you can have your stupid GIF's, JPEG's, msn.com talking points, and idiotic comments. And, speaking of idiotic, you can have the democrat hack Alan Lichtman.
As poll after poll after poll shows, Trump has the people!
https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue

Dancing is one of the countless things Donald Trump does exceptionally well.  Which is why America needs him.  Every day I take a moment to think about how lucky America is, if we can just restore the Reich.

Dancing is why Black people will vote for Donald Trump in unprecedented numbers.  He reminds them of Michael Jackson.
And no, that is not a racist stereotype.  I am the second least racist person in the world, next to Donald Trump.

Would this be a stupid or cute JPEG?  Maybe it's sexy for all the MAGA women to look at.  Who are we to judge??

The most remarkable thing in that article is this:
As a Democrat, I lived through two elections where my candidate won millions more votes than the other one, and still lost.  And, yes, I know we have a thing called the Electoral College.  But if Republicans like the idea that a minority can win, because of the electoral college, they ought to feel it is more than fair that Trump won in 2016.  Even though he lost by millions of votes.  Instead, they want to bitch and moan about how unfair it is that Trump lost by even more millions of votes in 2020.
The vast majority of Democrats deserve credit for believing in the fairness of elections.  Even after Gore and Clinton were deprived of the victory they would have won in any other country that is called a democracy.

Well, I think the main reason Trump wants to be POTUS again is that he wants to avoid spending the rest of his life in prison. I don't think the framers of the Constitution ever imagined that such a corrupt President and political party would ever come into power, but unless the impossible happens--Democrats get over 60% of the US Senate seats and a majority of the House--his win would assure him that he'll stay out of prison until 2029 (by which time he'll be pretty near death, if he makes it even that long given his terrible physical health). As you pointed out, the economies, and especially, inflation, of most western countries are improving following the problems of the early 20s. The high inflation of the early 20s wasn't due to Johnson/Truss policies nor Biden's, but rather due to rampant price hikes resulting from China's disastrous "Zero-Covid" policy and to Saudi Arabia's price gouging in the oil and gas market. 

Well, "why not?" seems like a silly "reason," since the answer is obviously to give enough time for your policies to work. I do thank you for the article, though, which suggests what might be the real reason: he's really rich, doesn't like the residence, and doesn't care that he's throwing his fellow MP's under the bus.
"... from all accounts, Sunak doesn’t seem to be loving life at No. 10...  Frustrated politically, life in the cramped flat in No. 10 must have seemed less and less appealing. Especially after his and his wife’s personal fortune increased by £120 million to £651 million in the latest Sunday Times rich list...". 
His decision, therefore, might just be a way of quitting (at the expense of his party). Now, if only Biden could pressure the President of Israel to call a prompt new election in Israel, maybe they'd get rid of BN...

How's this message?

fir?
You misspelled Führer

The most remarkable thing in that article is this:
As a Democrat, I lived through two elections where my candidate won millions more votes than the other one, and still lost.  And, yes, I know we have a thing called the Electoral College.  But if Republicans like the idea that a minority can win, because of the electoral college, they ought to feel it is more than fair that Trump won in 2016.  Even though he lost by millions of votes.  Instead, they want to bitch and moan about how unfair it is that Trump lost by even more millions of votes in 2020.
The vast majority of Democrats deserve credit for believing in the fairness of elections.  Even after Gore and Clinton were deprived of the victory they would have won in any other country that is called a democracy.