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thaiophilus

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  1. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from fedssocr in Airfare Strategies   
    Do they normalize by the number of aircraft the airline owns, number of passengers carried, passenger miles travelled?
    If not, those figures may be facts but what you can infer from them is very limited. Even if normalized, they are still not very useful. Fatal crashes are rare events (at least for airlines visiting first-world destinations, or the regulators would ban them pretty quickly :-)  so statistically they are outlying near-random noise on the tail of the distribution.
     
    Serious accidents usually only happen when more than one thing goes wrong at the same time, and often procedures are changed as a result of the accident investigation, so the same combination of events won't happen next time. On the other hand, some lessons learned are then forgotten, so a "safe" airline may become less safe through complacency. Also, 20 years is a long time in corporate terms, and the management of today's airline may have nothing in common with what it was 20 years ago.
     
    Simple example: airline A makes two daily long-haul flights per day and has had one fatal crash in the last 20 years, airline B has 500 regional flights a day and has had two fatal crashes. Does that make airline A twice as safe as B? Then consider Airline C which has had none at all. Are they "infinitely" more safe than A or B?  Or are we just looking at events that are so unlikely the statistics have no predictive value?
  2. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from paborn in Airfare Strategies   
    Do they normalize by the number of aircraft the airline owns, number of passengers carried, passenger miles travelled?
    If not, those figures may be facts but what you can infer from them is very limited. Even if normalized, they are still not very useful. Fatal crashes are rare events (at least for airlines visiting first-world destinations, or the regulators would ban them pretty quickly :-)  so statistically they are outlying near-random noise on the tail of the distribution.
     
    Serious accidents usually only happen when more than one thing goes wrong at the same time, and often procedures are changed as a result of the accident investigation, so the same combination of events won't happen next time. On the other hand, some lessons learned are then forgotten, so a "safe" airline may become less safe through complacency. Also, 20 years is a long time in corporate terms, and the management of today's airline may have nothing in common with what it was 20 years ago.
     
    Simple example: airline A makes two daily long-haul flights per day and has had one fatal crash in the last 20 years, airline B has 500 regional flights a day and has had two fatal crashes. Does that make airline A twice as safe as B? Then consider Airline C which has had none at all. Are they "infinitely" more safe than A or B?  Or are we just looking at events that are so unlikely the statistics have no predictive value?
  3. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from paborn in The stuff you carry   
    I agree with the sentiment, but there's another reason you might need (not want) to receive some calls: two-factor authentication...
     
    If my bank spots "unusual" activity on my credit card, quite likely when I'm abroad with different spending patterns, they send a text message to my home number. If I don't respond they are likely to block the card.
  4. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from vinapu in Please help a Newbie   
    If you're travelling during the day between Pattaya and Suvarnabhumi, don't overlook the Bell bus. It's twice the price of the regular buses at 240B and must be pre-booked online (go to https://ticket.belltravelservice.com/customer/Webhome and select "shared transfer"), but that fare includes a minibus transfer between the Pattaya North bus terminal and your hotel. Unfortunately there's nothing similar from other parts of BKK.
  5. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from CurtisD in Are you going bareback now.?   
    "My sister was tested and has the delta 32 gene, which I assume means I have it."
     
    Sorry, that doesn't follow. On average, you only share half your sister's genes. (If you had all of them, you'd be a girl ;-)
     
    Your sister has the delta 32 *mutation* in one or both of her CCR5 *genes*.
    We all have two copies of that gene, one from each of our parents, who also have two copies...
    At conception we get a random 50-50 choice of one of our father's two CCR5 genes and one of our mother's.
     
    The fact that your sister has the mutation means that one or both parents has the mutation on one or both genes.
    So there are four possibilities, with rapidly decreasing probability:
    (1) one parent has the mutation on one gene, the other hasn't - 1%
    (2) each parent has the mutation on one gene - 0.01%
    (3) one parent has the mutation on both genes, the other hasn't - 0.01%
    (4) one parent has the mutation on both genes, the other has it on one - 0.0001%
    (5) both parents have it on both genes - 0.000001%
     
    (assuming the allele frequency of the mutation is 1%, and your parents aren't closely related, e.g. some sort of cousins)
     
    The probability that you have the mutation in each case is:
    (1) 50% - one throw out of two you get the mutation from the one parent who has it
    (2) 75% - one throw out of four, you get two unmutated copies
    (3, 4) 100% - one parent has the mutation on both genes, so you are guaranteed one of them.
     
    But to be protected you need the mutation on both genes, and the probabilities of that are
    (1, 3) 0% - one parent has two unmutated genes, so you are bound to get one of them
    (2) 25% - one time in four you get the mutated gene from both parents
    (4) 50% - one parent has both mutated and unmutated genes, so fifty-fifty whether you get an unmutated one
    (5) 100% - neither parent has the unmutated gene.
     
    [E&OE]
  6. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from TMax in Are you going bareback now.?   
    "My sister was tested and has the delta 32 gene, which I assume means I have it."
     
    Sorry, that doesn't follow. On average, you only share half your sister's genes. (If you had all of them, you'd be a girl ;-)
     
    Your sister has the delta 32 *mutation* in one or both of her CCR5 *genes*.
    We all have two copies of that gene, one from each of our parents, who also have two copies...
    At conception we get a random 50-50 choice of one of our father's two CCR5 genes and one of our mother's.
     
    The fact that your sister has the mutation means that one or both parents has the mutation on one or both genes.
    So there are four possibilities, with rapidly decreasing probability:
    (1) one parent has the mutation on one gene, the other hasn't - 1%
    (2) each parent has the mutation on one gene - 0.01%
    (3) one parent has the mutation on both genes, the other hasn't - 0.01%
    (4) one parent has the mutation on both genes, the other has it on one - 0.0001%
    (5) both parents have it on both genes - 0.000001%
     
    (assuming the allele frequency of the mutation is 1%, and your parents aren't closely related, e.g. some sort of cousins)
     
    The probability that you have the mutation in each case is:
    (1) 50% - one throw out of two you get the mutation from the one parent who has it
    (2) 75% - one throw out of four, you get two unmutated copies
    (3, 4) 100% - one parent has the mutation on both genes, so you are guaranteed one of them.
     
    But to be protected you need the mutation on both genes, and the probabilities of that are
    (1, 3) 0% - one parent has two unmutated genes, so you are bound to get one of them
    (2) 25% - one time in four you get the mutated gene from both parents
    (4) 50% - one parent has both mutated and unmutated genes, so fifty-fifty whether you get an unmutated one
    (5) 100% - neither parent has the unmutated gene.
     
    [E&OE]
  7. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from vinapu in Too soon?   
    Anyone who visits Pattaya more than once can never leave...
     
    On a dark desert highway Cool wind in my hair
    Warm smell of colitas Rising up through the air
    Up ahead in the distance I saw a shimmering light
    My head grew heavy and my sight grew dim
    I had to stop for the night.
    There she stood in the doorway. I heard the mission bell
    And I was thinking to myself
    "This could be Heaven or this could be Hell"
    Then she lit up a candle And she showed me the way
    There were voices down the corridor I thought I heard them say

    "Welcome to the Hotel Pattayaland
    Such a lovely place (Such a lovely place) Such a lovely face
    Plenty of room at the Hotel Pattayaland
    Any time of year (Any time of year) You can find it here"

    Her mind is Tiffany-twisted She got the Mercedes Bends
    She got a lot of pretty, pretty boys She calls friends
    How they dance in the gogos Sweet summer sweat
    Some dance to remember Some dance to forget
    So I called up the Captain "Please bring me my wine"
    He said, "We haven't had that spirit here since 1969"
    And still those voices are calling from far away
    Wake you up in the middle of the night Just to hear them say

    "Welcome to the Hotel Pattayaland
    Such a lovely place (Such a lovely place) Such a lovely face
    They living it up at the Hotel Pattayaland
    What a nice surprise (what a nice surprise) Bring your alibis"

    Mirrors on the ceiling The pink champagne on ice
    And she said: "We are all just prisoners here Of our own device"
    And in the master's chambers They gathered for the feast
    They stab it with their steely knives But they just can't kill the beast
    Last thing I remember, I was running for the door
    I had to find the passage back To the place I was before
    "Relax," said the night man "We are programmed to receive
    You can check out any time you like But you can never leave!"
     
    [with apologies to Don Henley]
  8. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from ChristianPFC in Nick's Gay Thailand gone?   
    Yes, Nicky retired, closed the site and put the domains up for sale about the same time as he published his book. The site was still there (if not actively updated) in late 2016 as I downloaded some pages from it then. A shame it's gone, as it was frequently updated and most places of interest were listed. Still I suppose a clean break is better than leaving a fossil to decay and become more and more misleading as time goes on.
     
    The Japanese massage site is here
     
    For the sake of completeness there are also these sites I bookmarked at various times, but they may be seriously out of date or too selective to be useful:
    Utopia-Asia (very selective/censored coverage, e.g. no mention of gogo bars at all!)
    Sticky Rice (last "latest stories" 2014)
    GayThailand "city guides" (no comment)
    ...and many others that are now totally defunct.
     
    And once upon a time there was no Internet and the only source of information was The Men Of Thailand and word of mouth..
  9. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from Aux1010 in Nick's Gay Thailand gone?   
    Yes, Nicky retired, closed the site and put the domains up for sale about the same time as he published his book. The site was still there (if not actively updated) in late 2016 as I downloaded some pages from it then. A shame it's gone, as it was frequently updated and most places of interest were listed. Still I suppose a clean break is better than leaving a fossil to decay and become more and more misleading as time goes on.
     
    The Japanese massage site is here
     
    For the sake of completeness there are also these sites I bookmarked at various times, but they may be seriously out of date or too selective to be useful:
    Utopia-Asia (very selective/censored coverage, e.g. no mention of gogo bars at all!)
    Sticky Rice (last "latest stories" 2014)
    GayThailand "city guides" (no comment)
    ...and many others that are now totally defunct.
     
    And once upon a time there was no Internet and the only source of information was The Men Of Thailand and word of mouth..
  10. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from reader in Bathing with aplomb in public   
    If I'm reading it right, the bather made the video and the sarcastic comments himself, to make a point about someone's failure to repair the broken pipe. Not an opportunistic bath but a political statement.
  11. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from Badboy81 in Badboys June Trip to Bangkok....Suggestions Needed   
    For an inexpensive day out: from Sathorn pier (BTS Saphan Taksin) take the Chao Phraya Express river bus (the ordinary orange-flag boat, NOT the overpriced blue-flag tourist boat) all the way to the terminus at Nonthaburi. Stroll round a provincial town, have lunch at a riverside restaurant, return. Boat fare: 15B each way. From Nonthaburi you can also take a taxi to Pak Kred and the local ferry across to the island of Ko Kred, but that may require some language and negotiation skills.
    Another laid-back island in the heart of Bangkok: taxi (from MRT Klong Toey or BTS Bang Na) to Wat Khlong Toey Nok at the port entrance, then take the local ferry across to Bang Krachao.
     
    Restaurants: If you like the Mango Tree, other farang-friendly restaurants to consider are Ban Chiang (Thanon Surasak off Silom, BTS Surasak) and Tummy Yummy, soi Tonson (nearest BTS Chitlom or Phloenchit)
    And if you want to pick and mix rather than dining in a formal restaurant, don't overlook the food courts in department stores like Central Chidlom.
  12. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from bucknaway in Customs search finding convo about boys & sex   
    "I wonder what will happen if on a connecting flight in Doha"
     
    In most countries outside of the USA there is a concept of "transit": If you have connecting flights and stay airside at the airport you have not technically entered the country. Therefore you don't go through customs at all, though you will probably have to undergo the usual security theatre (X-rays ,metal detectors etc.) before boarding.
  13. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from fedssocr in Different kind of Bangkok Happy Ending   
    myskipper: "he asked for more and claim it was the "service charge"".
     
    Just to clarify for anyone who doesn't know the system: there really is a service charge for taxis departing the airport. It's 50B on top of the meter charge. Also, passengers are expected to pay the expressway tolls (various sums 20-50B, shown at the gate). Usually the driver asks for the money as you approach the toll station; if he doesn't, he will expect it at the end of the journey. I can understand the driver appearing nervous about raising the question, if the passenger shows no sign of understanding this and has no common language. On the other hand, anything running to hundreds of baht is a scam.
     
    While we're here, here's my honest Bkk taxi story. I was in a taxi from the airport, at night, when the driver received a call. He stopped, turned around and found the bag the previous passenger had left (in the dark) on the floor in the back. We made a slight diversion and he passed the bag over to another  taxi, I assume to be reunited with its owner.
     
    And for balance, the dishonest one. This was a clocked meter, obviously running at way over the correct rate. Maybe half way between the airport and central Bkk it was indicating 40km, when the entire journey is less than 25. Luckily there were two of us and my companion was fluent in Thai, so that "meter" ride suddenly became a (reasonable) fixed fare.
  14. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from ChristianPFC in Different kind of Bangkok Happy Ending   
    myskipper: "he asked for more and claim it was the "service charge"".
     
    Just to clarify for anyone who doesn't know the system: there really is a service charge for taxis departing the airport. It's 50B on top of the meter charge. Also, passengers are expected to pay the expressway tolls (various sums 20-50B, shown at the gate). Usually the driver asks for the money as you approach the toll station; if he doesn't, he will expect it at the end of the journey. I can understand the driver appearing nervous about raising the question, if the passenger shows no sign of understanding this and has no common language. On the other hand, anything running to hundreds of baht is a scam.
     
    While we're here, here's my honest Bkk taxi story. I was in a taxi from the airport, at night, when the driver received a call. He stopped, turned around and found the bag the previous passenger had left (in the dark) on the floor in the back. We made a slight diversion and he passed the bag over to another  taxi, I assume to be reunited with its owner.
     
    And for balance, the dishonest one. This was a clocked meter, obviously running at way over the correct rate. Maybe half way between the airport and central Bkk it was indicating 40km, when the entire journey is less than 25. Luckily there were two of us and my companion was fluent in Thai, so that "meter" ride suddenly became a (reasonable) fixed fare.
  15. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from traveller123 in Different kind of Bangkok Happy Ending   
    myskipper: "he asked for more and claim it was the "service charge"".
     
    Just to clarify for anyone who doesn't know the system: there really is a service charge for taxis departing the airport. It's 50B on top of the meter charge. Also, passengers are expected to pay the expressway tolls (various sums 20-50B, shown at the gate). Usually the driver asks for the money as you approach the toll station; if he doesn't, he will expect it at the end of the journey. I can understand the driver appearing nervous about raising the question, if the passenger shows no sign of understanding this and has no common language. On the other hand, anything running to hundreds of baht is a scam.
     
    While we're here, here's my honest Bkk taxi story. I was in a taxi from the airport, at night, when the driver received a call. He stopped, turned around and found the bag the previous passenger had left (in the dark) on the floor in the back. We made a slight diversion and he passed the bag over to another  taxi, I assume to be reunited with its owner.
     
    And for balance, the dishonest one. This was a clocked meter, obviously running at way over the correct rate. Maybe half way between the airport and central Bkk it was indicating 40km, when the entire journey is less than 25. Luckily there were two of us and my companion was fluent in Thai, so that "meter" ride suddenly became a (reasonable) fixed fare.
  16. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from vinapu in Aviation Enthusiasts   
    Been there, seen that, or else something remarkably similar was on the BBC recently. I guess it's one of those international productions where they show the same video sequences but the narrative is voiced by an actor of the target audience's nationality. 
     
    But that's not to knock it in any way - as such documentaries go, that is one of the better ones. I too was fascinated by the sheer complexity of what goes on. As a private pilot I get glimpses of that world, but the differences of scale are tremendous. It still amazes me that for a few hundred £ I can get to fly on an A380 costing a third of  a billion. The mere sound of the flight numbers EK016 - EK376 gets my mouth watering thinking of my next visit to LOS...
  17. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from biguyby in Aviation Enthusiasts   
    Been there, seen that, or else something remarkably similar was on the BBC recently. I guess it's one of those international productions where they show the same video sequences but the narrative is voiced by an actor of the target audience's nationality. 
     
    But that's not to knock it in any way - as such documentaries go, that is one of the better ones. I too was fascinated by the sheer complexity of what goes on. As a private pilot I get glimpses of that world, but the differences of scale are tremendous. It still amazes me that for a few hundred £ I can get to fly on an A380 costing a third of  a billion. The mere sound of the flight numbers EK016 - EK376 gets my mouth watering thinking of my next visit to LOS...
  18. Like
    thaiophilus got a reaction from DivineMadman in Recommed a doctor   
    As I know too well. Stones may take a while to grow, without any symptoms until they start to move, so it can be difficult to identify the cause. Regardless, it's definitely wise to avoid dehydration at all times. Also rhubarb
    For emergency self-medication for the pain you can take the maximum dose of both paracetamol/acetaminophen and ibuprofen simultaneously (so long as you are OK with either of these on its own, of course.)  If compounds with added codeine (e.g. co-codamol) are legal where you are, that helps too, but I wouldn't risk carrying anything containing codeine when travelling. A doctor may have more potent options available.
     
     
    I wouldn't be without it when travelling, just in case. But be careful what you drink while taking cipro... unlike some antibiotics, alcohol is no problem, but milky drinks stop it working and it potentiates caffeine to the point where you can feel quite ill after a single cup of tea.
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