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stevenkesslar

Why Biden Might Lose ............ It's The Economy, Stupid

By stevenkesslar, in Politics

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stevenkesslar Mentor

stevenkesslar

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19 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Granted, the man is verbose.  I always believe true intelligence is measured in whether all deep thinking can be communicated in one simple tweet.  😉 

 

17 hours ago, forky123 said:

Oh, the irony.

First, thanks for laughing at my dry sense of humor.

Second, it could have been worse.  I was actually thinking of posting this brand new interview between Bill Kristol and Jim Carville.  Now you gave me an excuse to do it. 

The reason I started this thread is to talk about the reasons Biden might lose.  The economy, stupid is definitely #1 on my list.  But Biden's age and alleged senility is clearly #2.  And that is what this interview focuses most on.

I really like Kristol and Carville.  That said, I was really conflicted watching this.  It made me think about college Poli Sci classes with Paul Wellstone and the debate between "armchair political theorists" and quantitative data that actually proves something.  These days Kristol and Carville are both armchair theorists, who may just be old and full of shit.  That said, Carville in particular outs himself as a poll "bed wetter."  (Poor Mary!)  He sounds suspiciously like someone who cares a lot about winning.  And therefore really cares about polls and focus groups that tell us what voters think.  Weird, huh?  So he is definitely wetting the bed about what polls and focus groups are telling us about Biden's age and perceived inability to serve for what would be more than five more years.

That said, my sage Alan Lichtman basically uses objective quantitative analysis to determine who will win the Presidency, and why.  And he's been right every time so far.  He says age is not going to be an issue, unless Biden gets a lot worse.  He says losing an incumbent is definitely a minus, history shows.  And opening the possibility for a bloody internal party fight might not play out well, other than in the minds of armchair theorists like Carville and Kristol.

I do think fate will decide.  Not to sound harsh, but I won't be shocked if Biden just dies in the next year.  Trump could, too.  And if Biden's approval rating is 35 % in January, or if RFK comes close to beating him in some early primary like New Hampshire, there is going to be clamoring for others to jump in the race.  If Plan Biden works and we dodge the recession bullet and inflation stays where it is now and the Fed starts cutting interest rates, that is a very different picture. 

One other thing jumped out at me, which echoed another recent interview Kristol had with another Clintonista political strategist, Doug Sosnik,  which I cited.  Sosnik argued that if Trump can make 2024 about which POTUS managed the economy better, Biden might lose.  If the 2024 election is instead about whether we want more crazy, Biden will win.  He predicted it will likely be the latter. 

While Carville is definitely wetting the bed, in his rambling and verbose Cajun common sense way he kind of made the case that most people don't want more crazy.  In particular, he pointed out that the progressive woke police is a small faction in the Democratic Party.  And they are losing the argument.  Whereas MAGA is the Trump majority now among Republicans.  And no matter what Trump does, you can never have enough craziness.  If Biden and Trump are both alive and running against each other in November 2024, I would not be surprised if that determines who wins.

Right now I would not bet on which way it will go.

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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For the first time since the election 3 years ago, RCP average shows Trump ahead of the decrepit old fool.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Though it is only by less than a point, it is significant that this is a one-on-one faceoff. It doesn't include third party candidate Cornel West; the left-wing radical, anti-White racist, and self-proclaimed socialist who probably represents the views of 15 - 20% of the democrat base. West is running on the Green Party line which expects to have ballot access in all 50 states. He should pull in at least 2-3%. This should be more than enough to turn Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona red, and likely Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan into the GOP column as well.

Over the next 14 months, Biden's corruption will continue to be exposed and make news, thanks to Jim Jordan and the GOP-controlled House hearings. Also, his physical frailty and senility will only get worse. They can't hide him forever. It will look brighter and brighter for Trump to retake the White House. And if Joe Manchin opts to run for President as an independent, he will lock up the votes of the few remaining "moderate" democrats left in the country which will guarantee a Trump victory, and perhaps portend a Trump landslide.

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KeepItReal Community Regular

KeepItReal

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On 9/18/2023 at 1:32 PM, EmmetK said:

For the first time since the election 3 years ago, RCP average shows Trump ahead of the decrepit old fool.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Though it is only by less than a point, it is significant that this is a one-on-one faceoff. It doesn't include third party candidate Cornel West; the left-wing radical, anti-White racist, and self-proclaimed socialist who probably represents the views of 15 - 20% of the democrat base. West is running on the Green Party line which expects to have ballot access in all 50 states. He should pull in at least 2-3%. This should be more than enough to turn Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona red, and likely Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan into the GOP column as well.

Over the next 14 months, Biden's corruption will continue to be exposed and make news, thanks to Jim Jordan and the GOP-controlled House hearings. Also, his physical frailty and senility will only get worse. They can't hide him forever. It will look brighter and brighter for Trump to retake the White House. And if Joe Manchin opts to run for President as an independent, he will lock up the votes of the few remaining "moderate" democrats left in the country which will guarantee a Trump victory, and perhaps portend a Trump landslide.

And if you believe any of that ⬆️ I have fantastic beach front property to sell you, in Nebraska. 

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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9 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:

And if you believe any of that ⬆️ I have fantastic beach front property to sell you, in Nebraska. 

You don't believe the polls? Speaks volumes about yourself.
You don't believe that Cornel West will draw a minimum of 2-3% from Biden in an election where 70% of dem voters think Biden is too old? Speaks volumes about yourself.
You don't think the senile old fool's obvious dementia will continue to deteriorate? Speaks volumes about yourself.

You are clearly in self-denial. Perhaps you should consider changing your name to DenyWhatIsReal..   lol

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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According to RealClearPoliitcs, Cornel West is currently polling at close to 4%. That total is taken almost exclusively from the senile old fool. That could make the difference in enough states to turn a close race into a Trump landslide.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_west-8249.html

 

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611

If an ABC/WaPo poll shows Trump winning by 9, then Trump is probably ahead by 20.

I am not all surprised that Trump leads Biden by 9 points, and 20 points among voters age 35 and younger.

I work in a high school. I noticed that many in this age group, don't identify as Democrat, Republican, or independent, yet they aren't digging the new leftist Marxist party. They see the corruption. They see the mismanagement of their taxes,. They're mad that Dems manipulate illegals for votes, yet clearly they Dems don't care about the American people. They are furious that their 2nd amendment rights are being infringed on, yet Hunter can have a gun. They also believe the country is too divided, weak, vulnerable and find it hopeless & depressing. 

American vets are lying on the street homeless in every city in the country and Joe Biden is giving $1000 a week to noncitizen illegal immigrants.

They absolutely do not like or trust the DC establishment career politicians.

This is why they are recognizing Pres. Trump. He isn't a DC politician. He doesn't owe favors to lobbyist or big corporations. As one 9th grader put it during a history class "President Trump is just like Samuel Adams. He's isn't afraid of the DC King." I

That is why younger voters are supporting President Trump. It's obvious that He's a fighter for the people.

 

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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5 hours ago, forky123 said:

At least she would have far less indictments, criminal charges, sexual assault allegations, bankruptcies and ongoing civil cases than Trump.

 

And Americans know all of that..  BUT DON'T CARE!
That's already baked in the cake and TRUMP is still ahead1

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611

Americans would still rather have Trump than the senile old fool and high inflation, and open-borders policy destroying American cities.

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EmmetK

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4 minutes ago, forky123 said:

You misspelled Traitors.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611

51% of Americans are traitors?  lol.
Only in your fantasy world of flying unicorns.

The only traitors are senile old Joe Biden and the Biden crime syndicate whose long-term plan of open borders is decimating this country by flooding it with poor, unskilled, uneducated illegals and expecting the US taxpayer to house them, clothe them, educate them, etc. will be reversed by President Trump.

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JKane Grand Master

JKane

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Maybe because there are no words to express how fucking idiotic your views are?  That every single claim by MAGAs is painfully obvious PROJECTION and that for a gay man to support them in any way will end exactly as it has for every other group/person in the "Can't believe leopards ate MY face" party?  All Trump has ever done for you is give you permission to be your worst self.  Meanwhile, by just about every measurement tracked, he was the worst president and Biden's been the best, at least in my lifetime.  

 

 

Oh, and...  

k4yqzkj9wlsb1.jpg?auto=webp&s=91a63b74f30bb6a9fd0e2cd0573f940a7c6d7433

@Mavica @EmmetK

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EmmetK Rising Star

EmmetK

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1 hour ago, JKane said:

 

Maybe because there are no words to express how fucking idiotic your views are?  That every single claim by MAGAs is painfully obvious PROJECTION and that for a gay man to support them in any way will end exactly as it has for every other group/person in the "Can't believe leopards ate MY face" party?  All Trump has ever done for you is give you permission to be your worst self.  Meanwhile, by just about every measurement tracked, he was the worst president and Biden's been the best, at least in my lifetime.  

 

 

Oh, and...  

k4yqzkj9wlsb1.jpg?auto=webp&s=91a63b74f30bb6a9fd0e2cd0573f940a7c6d7433

@Mavica @EmmetK

I guess that is why, even with all of the pending indictments, the RealClearPolitics poll of polls currently has President Trump leading the senile old fool (SOF)  by 1.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

And that is in a two-way race. That RCP poll doesn't reflect that at least 2 other dems (RFK Jr. and Cornell West) will be running independent campaigns. And 90%+ of their votes will be coming from the SOF. That's worth a minimum of  4 - 7 points.

I think I liked you better when you were in your infantile mode of posting GIFS and JPEGS. I thought it was kind of sad you couldn't express yourself with words. Now that you have, I understand why you prefer using pics. I think you should probably go back to that.

 

Now, I will go into @JKane mode...  lol.

us%7Dtpp-32.gif

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